As the dollar has fallen over the past week, many investors are trying to take advantage of what would seem like an unfavorable economic condition. However, with a situation of a falling dollar or any situation related to the economy arises an opportunity to find hidden treasures to invest in. When looking at Concur Technologies (CNQR) I can absolutely see some great optimism for potential investors wanting to make the most out of the current happenings in the United States economy.

As I mention the weakening dollar, many of you may be wondering why I would promote such an attribute to be a favorable indicator to a company like Concur. Truth be told, when the dollar depreciates against other currencies such as the Euro, many investors are betting that the economy has the potential to undergo a stronger than anticipated recession due to factors such high interest rates, and as a result, the falling dollar tries to ease some of the future hardships by allowing foreign countries to purchase more American goods in the form of imports to help boost the net export region of the GDP calculator. As that happens, companies such as Concur which lie with the technology industry typically fares well during times when this happens. This will be especially true since Concur’s business revolves around producing automated “corporate expense management solutions (Yahoo Finance).” When you are given developing countries such as China or India who could be of service to products such as these, you, as an investor can see the benefits associated with Concur having the potential to utilize its products in a global manner.

In addition to the overall benefits associated with a depreciating dollar, Concur supports solid fundamentals to add to the overall optimism for investors. Revenue has grown 27% since last year. Operating margins increased nearly 192% in one year with cash doubling in the same amount of time. The only worry that I see in terms of Concur’s numbers is the slowness in growing from 2004 to 2005, but if 2005 to 2006 is any indication of where Concur, a still relatively new company, is headed, then by all means this may be the breaking point in terms of propelling this company as a strong competitor to rivals such as Oracle, which, on a side note also has a higher P/E ratio compared to Concur’s 17 as per Yahoo Finance. In terms of technical analysis, Concur is also has grown nearly 700% over the past five years signaling that this company still has a lot of potential before it levels out.

Thus, by examining how Concur and its business relates to the current currency condition as well as the exciting assets in terms of fundamentals the company can boast about, this company signals to many investors as strong one to be noted in terms of a desired purchase. It’s true that technology may not fare well during times of potential downturn, but in the case for Concur, with a strong global advantage it should take, the use of the depreciated dollar should make investors relatively happy when looking at their respective capital gains in about a year time.

Dennis Biray presents advice on all kinds of topics ranging from finance and investing to fitness to sports. For more information email him at dbiray@gmail.com, or to view other articles written by him visit http://www.biraynetworks.co.nr

Lets take two traders, Dow and Jones. Their fundamental, technical and risk management rules are the same. They have been allocated the same start up capital, charting software and market.

Fast forward 2 months of trading activity, what do you think the result will be?

Dow has made 20% returns on initial capital, Jones is 30% down.

It is very intriguing don’t you think that two traders can have the same weapons but different results.

Follow me on this 10 part series ride and I will show you the main reasons why this has occurred.

Part 1

Holy grail

Imagine having a online stock trading system that will get you into a trade at the best market opportunity, the management of your trading position is second to none, the exit always results in profit. Does not matter what market or time frame you trade, you will make money all the time. Cash like clockwork hey. Unfortunately not.

Trading is a law of probabilities, that means no matter how good your stock system is, you will always experience a loss. It is like flipping a coin. Heads you win, tails you lose. All you want is that edge.

You might have a system that trades breakouts, countertrends, trends or pullbacks. Long term, short term, intraday or scalp trading. Regardless of the strategy you have, it will not guarantee you success.

Concentrate on a sytem that has minimal drawdowns by backtesting it using price data, also paper trade to get comfortable with executing your orders, but importantly get used to the emotions you feel while in a trade.

Stick to your trading plan regardless of the market action over at least 6 months to really see if your strategy works.

In trading you are consistent or non-existent.

Ken Otalor
www.onlineinvesttrading.com
I am a professional stock trader. I trade all of the major markets with massive success. I have a office based in London and work with a select group of traders to help them reach trading mastery.

To often investors are faced with the dilemma of picking out certain companies based on fundamental and technical analysis. For the case of Liz Claiborne (LIZ), the situation is no different. It is true the Christmas and holiday season is upon us, and many companies such as Liz are trying to accrue more profit than other times of the year. However, as you will find out, there are some benefits to purchasing shares of this company now, but there are also some risks involved to produce a complicated situation.

Fundamentals are one area where Claiborne excels. Revenue has been growing at a fairly strong rate over the past two years, which, coupled with increasing operating margins and gross profit margins over the same duration make for a very compelling case. In terms of producing cash, Claiborne continues to grow on a year to year basis, illustrating that this company still has the methods necessary to utilize economies of scale. One of the few areas that do concern me is the loss, percentage wise, in cash from 2005 to 2006 relative to operating income. Although such decrease may be examined and exclaimed as marginal, I always feel such a statistic is an important one for a company. Relative to the balance sheet, it is true that Claiborne has been decreasing many of its current assets, but, for the long term, Claiborne still has higher total assets while reducing many of its liabilities. The best statistic relative to Claiborne however can be seen from its P/E ratio. Much smaller than competitors such as Quicksilver or Bennetton, Claiborne also, according to Yahoo Finance will support a forward P/E of less than 13 in the near future which is an excellent indicator to see how a company fares against its rivals. As a result of the good news relative to fundamentals, Claiborne looks like a terrific buy from an investment standpoint.

However, as there is much glee in terms of the numbers, there are few concerns with regards to technical analysis which leads for my conclusion of a risky purchase. Over the past five years, Claiborne has grown, in terms of share price, over 60%. While many investors may exclaim what is the matter with such solid growth, in the last two years, Claiborne has only remained unchanged which brings my concern up. Unfortunately for many investors already holding shares of this company there seems to be a situation where this company has been trapped in a resistance and support level range. With a support level of about 34 and a resistance level about 10 points higher, as an investor I would not take a chance, regardless of the fundamentals to put my money in for the long term.

However, as many technical, short term investors may find appealing, with such a range, it may be possible for an investor to purchase shares at the 34 share price mark and then sell a large portion by the time the share price rises back to 43 or so. Doing so is risky as technical analysis is not always reliable, but if such a trend continues over the next couple of months, there is a chance, especially with the Christmas expectations that I am bullish about, for this company to produce favorable gains to its investors. However, as the price of the stock is near 43, its resistance level, I would be hesitant purchasing shares until the price drops below 40 or goes to about 45 which would signal a strong rally from this company. Either way, the key is to wait for one of these signals to appear before purchasing any shares, and then to take the appropriate measure relative to which way the share price goes.

Thus, while the fundamentals may be indicative of a strong company ready to appease shareholders, the technical side makes it tough for me to label this company as a strong buy: especially at its current share price. However, like mentioned prior, the key for this company is to wait for a few weeks to a month and examine if it reaches the 40 or 45 share price range. If the former, wait a few more weeks or months until the price reaches 35 to purchase more shares, but if the latter, purchase a good quantity of new shares, because with the strong fundamentals, this stock could be ready to rally.

Dennis Biray presents advice on all kinds of topics ranging from finance and investing to fitness to sports. For more information email him at dbiray@gmail.com, or to view other articles written by him visit http://www.biraynetworks.co.nr

This is probably the most traditional form of investment pre-Internet. And has it gone away today? No! Quite to the contrary, it’s alive, revamped and there is a lot more opportunity to make money…and lose money…from the stockmarkets.

Is it worth putting money on the stockmarket?

Classical question, to which I will give the classical answer. It depends how long you want to keep the money in there for.

If you want to, and can, leave the money aside for 5 years or more (i.e. you are putting some of your SAVINGS into the stockmarket), then definitely YES. Whilst past performance is not a guarantee of future performance, the stock market tends to outperform other forms of investments in the long term.

Then what if I want to make a short-term gain?

Once again, I will give a classical answer to this classical question. BE CAREFUL. You can also LOSE money on the stock market. Yes, it’s very true.

Many, many people have lost money on the stock market. Some have become bankrupt, some have committed suicide over it.

But many people earn big money in the City and Wall Street doing just that, don’t they?

True. But you cannot and should not aim to compete with them. First, you do not have the resources, database, training and time to research stocks as much as they do. Second and more importantly, you do not have the huge financial backing that the banks/funds have to leverage or hedge your positions. And finally, even they lose money. They just don’t publicise it as much for obvious reasons. Click here to read an article on that matter.

Therefore, you should only play the stockmarket with money that you can afford to lose!

If you do want to play the stockmarket, please consider the following advice which, once again, is not exhaustive:

1. If you want the potential for higher gains, consider buying Contracts for Differences (CFDs). These are sophisticated derivative products that are now available to the public. You only put down a fraction of the money you want to invest on the stockmarket and borrow the rest. Obviously, you pay interest on the amount you borrow. This means that your investment is then geared. You stand to make stronger gains, but also more painful losses! I invested $3,500 in a CFD on a blue-chip company in August 2006. I am still licking my wounds!!

2. Bear in mind that you don’t have to trade only in stocks/shares anymore. You can trade on gilt bonds, derivatives and commodities such as oil, gold and silver. If you feel you have some better knowledge about a particular market, go for that!

3. Research the market. For example, every day, I read This is Money. Every weekend, I read the Money and Business Section of The Guardian. I try to pick blue-chip stocks that are giving a relatively high dividend yield. This is interesting for 2 reasons.

(a) If, like me, you are buying stocks on a CFD, you will pay interest the longer you hold the position open. However, you will also be paid dividend. Hence, a higher dividend helps to offset the cost of keeping the position open;

(b) Such stocks may soon attract hot money hence pushing up their price;

Obviously, you need to take this with a pinch of salt, so ALWAYS research the company first to try to ascertain why this is the case. For example, has there been a profit warning issued recently?

My tips for stockmarket investments are:

1. Invest in currencies - the markets and less volatile and more predictable;

2. Invest in funds - they are less volatile and still offer good value;

3. Never act on inside information - you can go to jail for that!

The first chart is a two-year daily chart of SPX to VIX ratio (dots and right scale) with its 50-day MA (blue line) and SPX (red line and left scale). The SPX to VIX ratio rose sharply from roughly 50 in June to 140 in November. Last week, SPX to VIX fell below its 50-day MA, which may indicate at least a consolidation short-term.

Above the price chart is the VIX 21-day MA, which fell to a low level and began to rise last week, since the daily VIX rose above its 21-day MA, which is an SPX sell signal. The VIX 21-day MA (and 20-day MA) has been more accurate predicting SPX direction within two weeks than within one month or three months. The two arrows indicate SPX movements after the two prior times the SPX to VIX ratio fell below its 50-day MA and the VIX 21-day MA began to rise from low levels.

Also, above the first chart is the CPC 50-day MA, and below the price chart are the NYMO 50-day MA and daily NYSI. The relatively high CPC 50-day MA remains SPX bullish. However, the NYMO 50-day MA has been falling and normally over the second half of the fall, between zero and negative 25, a large SPX pullback takes place. The daily NYSI has flattened.

The second chart is an SPX three-month chart. At least three times since late October bearish signals were given or about to be given, but reversed course, i.e. the MACD bearish crossover, the 10-day MA about to cross below the 20-day MA, and the RSI on the verge of falling below 50. Yet, SPX continued to make higher highs and higher lows. I suspect, if SPX fails to make a higher high next week, then a fall to at least the 50-day MA, currently 1,371, will take place within two weeks.

Free charts available at http://www.PeakTrader.com Forum Index Market Forecast category.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time and over time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past four years.

If you can stick with your investment strategy for the long term, chances are that you will make a profit. To do this you will need to invest without liquidating your investment, without panicking and without losing sight of the benefits of investing for the long term.

That sounds easier than it really is. Investment results cannot be predicted. When you look at the market in the short term, it can often look appealing to just sell and invest elsewhere. But you can’t focus on next week, next month or next year when looking at your investments and their profitability. You have to look a little further into the future.

No one can accurately predict where the market will be next year or in ten years. What you have to look at is a broader picture. When you look at the history of the stock market, there are ups and downs. However, the market has generally moved higher and higher. Keep this in mind when the market takes a downturn. The stock market is volatile in the short run, but is fairly rewarding in the long run. You simply have to keep in mind that you are investing for the long run.

Look at your IRA. This is a long-term investment tool. For those who have 10 to 40 years until their retirement, the IRA has an enormous potential to build wealth. But it does this over the long term. When you have 30 years to invest, you have a good chance of coming out further ahead through the stock market than by investing in bonds or CDs. Even if you only have 10 years to invest, chances pretty good that in 10 years, the S&P 500 will be much higher than it is today.

In the end, the value of your IRA depends on how you choose your investments today. The key to successfully building your wealth through long-term investing in the stock market is found in having a plan. You take that plan, stick with it and remember to look at the big picture when looking at your stock investments.

Set guidelines for your investments and follow them. Don’t invest or liquidate based on a hunch, gut-feeling or impulse. Ask yourself what you want out of your investments. What kind of lifestyle will you want during your retirement? How much will your child’s college education cost? What are your financial hopes and dreams? Are you looking to retire early or work as long as possible?

Create a plan that includes setting aside a regular amount of money for investing. That is the key to reaching your goals, no matter how little you have. You don’t have to invest a lot of money at once if you are investing for the long run. It will build and grow more than you can imagine. Even small investments can grow quite large over time.

Investing for the long term doesn’t necessarily mean that you invest and forget. Yes, you can do this if you choose extremely safe stocks, but it probably still isn’t a good idea. Things change over time, especially when it comes to finances and the stock market. You have to review your investments to make sure that they are still performing in a way that will get you to your goals. It is a good idea to know ahead of time how much loss you are willing to take from a stock before you sell it. Most people follow the 10% rule. Know what your out point is before you invest. Watch your stocks to make sure that they perform according to your standards.

Investing for the long run is a good investment strategy. It reduces your risk considerably. The longer you have to invest, the less your risk.

Martin Lukac http://www.MartinLukac.com, represents http://www.RateEmpire.com, an Internet consumer banking marketplace. RateEmpire.com is a destination site of personal finance, investing, taxes and mortgage rates. RateEmpire.com provides mortgage guides and financial rates and information. RateEmpire.com also operates a financial portal #1 American Financial, found at http://www.1AmericanFinancial.com

So we are clear, a stop order is an order that becomes active once a certain price is exceeded. A buy stop order is an order to buy once price exceeds a certain price. Until the price is exceeded to the upside, the order is not active. The opposite applies for a sell stop order. Sell stop orders become active once a price is exceeded to the downside.

There is an important point to consider, one I was not aware of until a stop order of mine was executed. Depending on your broker, “price” can indicate either a transaction that has occurred or simply that the bid or ask occurred at that price level.

How did I figure out this distinction? For a buy stop order I had in, I reviewed the time / sales report for a stock I bought using a buy stop order without a limit. I noticed that my order was the first transaction at that price – which by the way, turned out to be the high price for the day. My understanding at the time was that a stop order does not become active until another transaction occurs at that price.

Not true according to my broker. Their explanation of why my order was filled was that the asking price tripped the buy stop level I had set. Once that occurred, my order automatically became a market order to buy. Fortunately for me, the trade ending up being a winner. The lesson was learned, make sure you understand how orders work, in particular stop orders.

A way to enter a stock as it starts to move in the anticipated direction is to use a stop order with a limit. For example, if you are interested in buying a stock but you want to wait until the stock “proves” that it is moving higher, you can place an order to buy at a price higher than the current market price and specify the maximum price you are willing to pay. Assume that the current price is $45.51 and you are interested in purchasing this stock if it trades above yesterday’s high of $46.14. You could place a day order to buy 1000 shares on a stop at $46.15 with a limit of $46.21.

If your method of trading uses previous highs and lows as entry points, then using a stop limit order like the one described allows you to place an order when the market opens and not have to watch the screen all day. Additionally, if your stop order becomes a market order to buy, then you have a limit to what you are willing to pay. The $0.05 difference between the stop price and the limit price gives you a little “wiggle” room for getting a fill.

Stop orders can be used to close profitable positions without giving back much of the profits. If you are in a profitable long position, then using a trailing stop below the previous day’s low or the three day low can keep in you a profitable position.

Finally, a stop order can be your best protection from catastrophic losses. It is not a bad idea to place a stop order to exit a position once you enter a stock position. If you are a buyer of a stock, then placing a sell stop order either a certain percentage or below a significant low, can minimize your losses.

Use stop orders in your trading to minimize losses and protect profits. Contact your broker for clarification on the types of stop orders they allow.

Many people are intimidated when looking up the prices of stocks. There are so many different numbers. What do they all mean?

Understanding stock prices doesn’t have to be a scary situation. All you need to know is a little about what the numbers mean to you.

The current price of the stock is the price of the most recent trade that was completed for the stock. This is the last purchase price of the stock. This doesn’t guarantee that you will get that price for the stock, but it gives you an idea of where it is trading at right now. Most stock quotes are time-delayed by up to 20 minutes, unless you are given a "real-time" quote. Remember, stock prices change so quickly that the last price given may no longer be current in a few minutes.

Most stocks will also list a high and low price for the day. These are the highest and lowest prices at which the stock was traded during the day. The same applies for the 52-week high and low prices — the highest and lowest prices over a 52-week period.

When looking at Nasdaq-listed stocks, you will see information on the bid and ask prices for a stock. The bid is the highest price that any principle brokerage firm is willing to pay for the stock at a particular time. This is what they are bidding on the stock. They are basically putting the price out there for any sellers that will accept.

The ask is the lowest price that any principal brokerage firm is willing to sell a stock at. This is their selling price.

The spread is the difference between the bid and the ask prices. For example, if the bid is $20 and the ask is $30, there is a $10 spread.

When looking at the stock tables in the newspaper, remember that these numbers are the prices of the last trades on the day before. Internet quotes will often provide you with the most recent trades.

Keep in mind that prices can change quickly. When you are buying, you may pay more than or less than the most recently quoted price on a stock. This is because the price is constantly changing. It goes up and down by pennies, and sometimes dollars. There are many factors that cause this fluctuation.

These fluctuations are where opportunities are found for many investors. They can create the prime time to buy a depressed stock or a great selling time with an elevated stock. When these fluctuations happen for no clear reason, chances are that they will right themselves.

Keep your eye on your investments. Keep your ears open and listen to what is going on in the companies you invest in. Learn to read the stock tables and know what the numbers mean to you. But remember, management means that you follow your pre-set guidelines on when to buy and sell. Don’t be tempted to make rash decisions just to make a few dollars.

Martin Lukac http://www.MartinLukac.com, represents http://www.RateEmpire.com, an Internet consumer banking marketplace. RateEmpire.com is a destination site of personal finance, investing, taxes and mortgage rates. RateEmpire.com provides mortgage guides and financial rates and information. RateEmpire.com also operates a financial portal #1 American Financial, found at http://www.1AmericanFinancial.com

A future reactionary (counter-trend) event greater in vertical price size than the great crash of 1929 is inevitable due to the fixed structure of movement inherent in the mechanism that governs mass psychology. As shown in this graphic, trend progression is based on the production of ever larger reactionary events. This trait guarantees that the 1929 crash, the largest reactionary event to date, will be trumped at some point by an even larger event - not necessarily a crash, perhaps a super bear market - but a larger event nonetheless. It is not a question of if but when.

Contrary to popular opinion, crashes are quite natural events in the stock market; in fact, they are built into the required behavior of actionary (upward moving) trend progression. The fractal nature of market movement requires that price create ever larger patterns at ever larger scales. These "larger patterns" logically contain larger reactionary waves.

In the above mentioned graphic the 3-wave magenta Path is the same movement in both phases 1 and 2. If we say that the first reactionary shown in the blue Path equals 1, then for price to progress as it must, the next Path must create a larger reactionary, as depicted in the theoretical measurement give the magenta reactionary, namely 2. This reactionary is trumped by yet another, measuring 3, as shown in the red Path. At this point the trend reaches a terminal area and a full-fledged downward movement is now in order.

So exactly where are we (as of November 2006) in this process? Viewing price data back to the year 1854 we see two significant reactionary waves. The first runs from sometime prior to 1854 and ends in 1857. That reactionary was not trumped by any other for 72 years, but 1929 trumped it. This means that the events in the intervening 72 years can be effectively ignored. And so, using our graphic again to illustrate, the ‘29 crash is the magenta reactionary. The reactionary that ended in 1857 is part of the blue Path. We seem currently to be somewhere near the extremity of the magenta Path which is also near the end of the first upward leg of the red Path.

Once we finish the actionary wave that is the current bull market beginning late 2002, we should be due for a reactionary to trump the 1937-42 reactionary. Once that happens any new all-time record high thereafter will put the market right at the brink of the largest reactionary ever. Speculating from the timing of the 37-42 reactionary the market could reach such a point in as little as 12-15 years. The question is, will we even reach that point? A reactionary to trump the 37-42 move would likely take price down to sub 7000 levels. With the Dow just topping 12140 that’s nearly a 50% loss.

It has now been 78 years since we’ve seen a major reactionary event at the largest price cycle. That the market and economy will undergo a cataclysmic event is even prophesied in scripture.

Into the streets they will throw their very silver, and an abhorrent thing their own gold will become. Neither their silver nor their gold will be able to deliver them… - Eze. 7:19

Of course, the initial application of this prophecy was fulfilled on ancient Jerusalem in 607 B.C.E. But other biblical evidence points to a global fulfillment in our present time. Hence, it would be wise for market and money obsessed watchers of today to reconsider their valuations in life.

Future generations will never be able to observe live the fascinating progression of price as it exists in today’s markets (esp. the Dow), simply because modern man, with his stupid politics and lying religions, is ruining everything.

Erek Allon Daniels is a trader, freelance market analyst, and author of the tutorial How to Count Price Movements and Trends. He is sole discoverer of a new stock market model called REM which he promotes from his website EWTalternative.com

Stocks are rarely round in number. You don’t often find that $20 stock out there. Instead, you find $3.26, $12.52 and $105.79. Stock prices don’t usually stick to the whole dollar amounts.

Most investors traditionally purchase stocks by investing in a whole number of shares. The cost is the number you buy multiplied by the price. For example, buy three shares of the $12.52 stock and you pay $37.56.

Dollar-based investing works a little differently. You buy stocks (or other investments) in a dollar amount that you choose. You don’t have to purchase just the multiples of the stock price. If you want to invest $50 a month, you don’t necessarily purchase an exact whole number amount of shares. You are buying just $50 worth of shares. For a $12.52 stock, your $50 buys you 3.99 shares of a stock. You can buy 1/2 of a share, 1/4th of a share or even 8/25 of a share.

This method works really well for the ordinary investor who wants to consistently invest in the stock market over time. The investor decides how much a month can be put back and invests that amount every month. Few people have $10,000 to invest at a time. Most don’t even have $1,000 in a lump sum to invest. However, dollar-based investing makes it possible to invest that money by putting it in the stock market in smaller increments.

The fact is that few people are dedicated enough to save up and then purchase some stocks. But if they invest a little at a time, they are saving and investing at the same time. The temptation isn’t there to go out and spend what you have saved to invest. You’ve already invested it.

Dollar-based investing is great for the beginning investor who simply needs to make a habit of investing in the market. By letting money build in a safe stock over time, you are saving and investing at the same time.

This method gives you the added edge of buying at the current price. If you were to save for four months to buy one share of a certain stock, what guarantees that the price won’t go up considerably in that time? By buying 1/4th of the stock each month, you are taking advantage of the current lower price. You are already making money on your investment.

Dollar-based investing allows you to save just as a savings account or a money market account does. But if you are looking for a long-term savings, dollar-based investing allows you greater return potential. Keep in mind that you still must choose your stocks wisely, as there is always risk. By choosing a low-risk company to invest in, you can watch your stocks build and grow at the same time.

Martin Lukac http://www.MartinLukac.com, represents http://www.RateEmpire.com, an Internet consumer banking marketplace. RateEmpire.com is a destination site of personal finance, investing, taxes and mortgage rates. RateEmpire.com provides mortgage guides and financial rates and information. RateEmpire.com also operates a financial portal #1 American Financial, found at http://www.1AmericanFinancial.com