Robert Rodriguez likes to buy stocks at their lows. When there are not enough stocks hitting new lows, he closes his fund and piles up cash. This is what he has been doing lately. His moves deserve attention for good reasons, his $1.7 billion FPA Capital Fund has averaged an annual total return of more than 17% over the last 20 years, net of sales charge, handily beating all the benchmarks by wide margins.

As Robert Rodriguez finds slim pickings in the stock market, his goal has changed to capital preservation. The cash position in his fund has been in steady increase. On March 31, 2005 , it is at 34%. As a reference, between 1984 and 1997, his cash level was rarely above 5% and most of the time it was less than 2%. Now he is sitting on this big trunk of cash, awaiting opportunities. "You never know the value of liquidity until you need it and don’t have it." He said, “This is one of those times when it takes a great deal of patience, discipline, and conviction to maintain such a contrarian position, because of the potential business and investment risk that it entails.”

Robert Rodriguez’ contrarian position in investment goes beyond adjusting the level of cash. He also reduces his fund’s weighting in the sectors or industries that he thinks are overpriced. He has done this before. The years of 1979 –1981 was the time of the second oil crisis, oil and gas prices were soaring. Many "experts" were forecasting oil prices of $100 per barrel within ten years. Energy stocks were being valued as growth stocks and represented nearly 31% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Robert Rodriguez went to the contrary; he liquidated all his energy stocks and bought bonds. The oil mania resulted in large-scale capital destruction with virtually every bank in the state of Texas going bankrupt by 1987.

Robert Rodriguez’s contrarian investment style was tested again during the peak of the tech bubble. In March 2000, he analyzed the operating and stock market performances of Microsoft and Cisco Systems, made growth assumptions for them and the U.S. economy. He biased down the expected growth and valuation assumptions for each of these companies. The result was that Microsoft’s market valuation would increase to 36% of nominal GDP. Cisco’s expected market valuation would rise to 48% of nominal GDP. The combination of these two estimates would equal 84% of GDP by 2010. Apparently (now) the odds of this happening were not great. In light of these trends, he reduced his Fund’s exposure to technology stocks. We all know how that bubble ended.

So what sectors does he like or dislike right now? He has energy stocks at 19.3% of the Fund, it is between three and four times the weighting of the various indexes. This is the highest energy allocation that he has had since 1979, when he began selling this sector. Financial service stocks total 2.1%; the lowest allocation he has had in 35 years. His reason: financial sector is at or near-record representation in all the major indexes. Financial service companies represent nearly 21% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization — a 33-year high. They are among the largest components in other stock indexes as well. In terms of operating profits, they comprise almost 28% of the S&P 500.

In summarizing his contrarian investment style, Robert Rodriguez listed these key attributes:

Focus on market leadership or niche companies that are in industries that are perceived to be out of favor and unloved — a bottom-up strategy. Select companies that have strong balance sheets — typically with total debt to total capital of less than 40%.

They must be at a significant valuation discount to the market and its historical valuation parameters.

Acquire them at modest premiums to book value and at less than 1x revenues. They should be on or close to being on the new low list. Have a long-term investment time frame — typically three to five years.

Dr. Charlie Tian, Director of Research of http://gurufocus.com, the website that tracks the stock picks of Warren Buffett, George Soros and other guru investors like Bill Nygren, Mason Hawkins, Ken Fisher, David Dreman, Martin Whitman, James Gipson, Robert Rodriguez, Ronald Muhlenkamp, Wallace Weitz, William, Ruane, Edward Lampert, Edward Owens, Richard Aster, Jr, Robert Olstein, John Keeley, Brian Rogers and Tweedy, Browne.

Over the past few months, several investment professionals have brought up the topic of the down-and-out company of the day and whether to buy now as a speculation. Last year, K-Mart was the big news, and everyone wanted to know whether this was a good stock play. Today the news is focused on WorldCom and its downfall. Thus, some people are pondering this stock for quick profit potential.

Here’s the scoop: Don’t buy WorldCom.

I know! It’s impossible for MCI to disappear: they’re too big, they’re too popular, their service is excellent, etc. That’s the good news that everyone is talking about. But there’s another side a darker side to the story. The company filed for bankruptcy because of their massive debt load, not just because of accounting failures. The accounting failures probably only came to light as a result of the company’s lack of funds.

In the end, it will be the same story as K-Mart. It won’t matter whether K-Mart or MCI survive, the shareholders will not. If the business survives still debatable in K-Mart’s case, but more likely in MCI’s business ownership will be transferred to the bondholders and other creditors by law. This is what bankruptcy courts do. Shareholders get nothing. If you want to gamble on MCI/WorldCom, you might consider their bonds rather than their stocks, although that option may not be great either.

So, is it pointless to look at "down-and-out" stocks as quick turnaround opportunities? Well, we may avoid the "down-and-out", and instead just invest in the "down-and-uncertain". These can be awesome opportunities, but be aware that the risks are sometimes high among these downtrodden firms.

Here is a list of 25 of these beaten down stocks which today sell for under $5. Some are well-known businesses, other names are less commonly known. Some are dot.coms suffering from the fallout of that moniker, while some languish in other areas of high tech. The energy market has taken more than its share of hits since Enron’s collapse, and that industry is well represented on the list. Telecom, still reeling from WorldCom’s collapse, is also present. For variety, the list includes everything from media to education, from international trade financing to pencil-graphite production.

If you’re convinced that buying the beaten down is the best way to make money, this should provide you vastly better choices than K-Mart or WorldCom. Anything on this list is better than those two doomed stocks. While a few are pending investigation (*starred), most have fallen simply because of the whims of the market. Some are even maintaining profits in this tough environment.

With the market in the doldrums, out-of-favor companies sometimes fall more than would be rational. As a result, you might find great buys in stocks like this. But in this market, there are great buys everywhere. The question is when to buy.

Market timing is not necessarily wise, but when the market is falling as harshly as it has been, one can afford to wait until the stock is so low that you are virtually certain it can’t go lower. Some of these stocks have reached that level.

To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson’s Investment Advisor Services, visit http://www.valueview.net

Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor’s Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.

Every publicly traded company is required by the SEC(Securities and Exchange Commission) to provide annual reports to it’s shareholders, and the general public as well. These annual reports contain very important financial information, as well of summaries of the companies progress made by the CEO, board members, etc. I use annual reports to decide whether or not im going to buy stock in that company.

How to obtain an annual report - There are basically two ways to get an annual report from a company. The first way is to call the Investor Relations department of a company and asked to have an annual report be sent to you. They send the annual reports free of charge to you, and it would usually arrive in 4 to 5 business days. These annual reports look like magazines, and are very professionally prepared. Usually if you go to the website of the company you’re researching, they will have a "Investor Relations" link, and then you can fill out an online form with your name and address to recieve an annual report.

The second way to get annual reports from a company is to go to The SEC’s Website at http://www.sec.gov. If you click on "Search for Company Fillings" located under "Filling and Forms", you’ll be taken to a webpage called "Search the EDGAR Database". On that webpage, click on "Companies & Other Filers". Then enter the name of the company you need an annual report form, and then click "Find Companies". Look for a report labeled "10-K". That will be their the companies annual reports. Now the reports on the SEC’s website are in no way glamourus! They are just in basic text format, and can be very boring to read. But, they provide the same important information from the company.

Inside of the annual report, you will find many things that are useful in helping you decide whether or not to invest in that company. Here’s what you’ll find in just about every annual report:

Corporate Profile - This is just a small summary of the basic operations of the company, what the company does, etc.

Letter from the President - This is a letter written by the president or CEO of the company, and most of the time the letters talk about the financial successes of the year. This letter may also mention major contracts or partnerships the company has formed, and give a general analyzation of the companies revenues and sales. Be careful when reading the letter from the President, because the business could be running to the ground, but while reading the letter you may get the immpression that all is well!

Independent Auditors’ Report - Before a company can distribute their annual report to the public, the financial information inside of the annual report must be checked for accuary so shareholders are not misled. That’s the job of the independent auditor. They auditing firm will search for evidence that supports the financial information in the Income Statement, Balance Sheet, etc., and then will write a letter if all is well.

Income Statement - The income statement in the annual report shows the net income or net loss for that particular year. It also shows net sales, cost of goods sold, and the expenses of a company. Income statements from different years can be compared to see if the company is improving financially. I like to compare income statements from the past 5 years, to see if the net sales and net income of a company is increasing.

Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the business’ assets, and liabilities. The assets are listed in order of liquidity. The quicker an asset can be converted to cash, the more liquid it is. That is why Cash is at the top of the list of assets, because it is the most liquid asset. Under assets you may see items such as Accounts Recieveable (the amount of money that’s owed to the company), Property and Equipment, and Other Invesments. In the list of Liabilities, you’ll see items such as Accounts Payable (The amount the company owes to other businesses), Income Taxes Payable, and Long-term Debt.

Cash Flow Statement - The cash flow statement shows how the money the business makes, is moving in the business. The cash flow statement also shows if the business was able to increase their cash on hand during the year or not.

Risks - Usually in the back of the annual report, you’ll find the risk that are associated with the business. Reading all the types of things that can affect the business is depressing, especially if you own stock in that company. But, to get a good idea of what can affect a business, reading the risks section of the annual report is the best way to go.

Michael Press is an investor and teenage entrepreneur. He currently owns and operates PassiveIncomeInfo.com, a free website with articles about how to build wealth. He also writes for and distributes the Creating Wealth E-zine.

IT’S REMINISCENT OF THE OLD children’s tale about an old Chinese farmer who tells his friends his story, and they enjoin with “That’s good” or “That’s bad” on alternating lines:

Farmer: My horse ran away.

Friends: That’s bad.

Farmer: She came back with a majestic stallion by her side.

Friends: That’s good.

Farmer: My son tried to ride the stallion and broke his hip.

Friends: That’s bad.

Farmer: The emperor came through town that week and took every able-bodied young man away to war. My son was spared.

Friends: That’s good, et cetera.

Recent market trends bring this story to mind. On this emotional roller coaster, it’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry. For all practical purposes, the war is over. That’s good. But the battle to win over Iraq has just begun. That’s bad. The markets in the U.S. have been cheered by the quick success. Good. The Japanese market has hit a new 20-year low. Bad. We could go on. It’s been a wild month for news.

Fears of the SARS epidemic have hit economies in East Asia and Canada and further injured an already-weakened airline industry. A bigger question is how devastating the epidemic will become, and will it hinder an already weak recovery, or worse yet become a worldwide epidemic. Embezzlement charges caused a temporary bank run among recent immigrants who weren’t aware of FDIC insurance at Abacus Federal Savings Bank in New York’s Chinatown. Earnings news is rather positive, despite a few negatives. Many big names have provided surprises on the upside, while fewer companies are disappointing analysts, it seems.

Despite the recent uptrend in U.S. markets, most investors aren’t particularly cheered. Most still wonder how long it will take to recover what was lost in the past few years. That focus, however, won’t make the recovery come any sooner. We need to be happy with 10% growth, a substantial positive trend for those who aren’t carrying any baggage. Too, for those who put their money in, instead of following the crowd and taking it out, 10% growth ought to compensate for twice the losses. The real question is whether individual investors will continue to run for the exits, hold their ground, or redouble their efforts to save and invest more.

I’m continually amazed how investors put more money in when markets are topping out, and pull money back when markets are at or near bottoms. Described in that way, virtually no one would do it, but when we add the emotional component, it is really quite easy to understand. Market bottoms come after drops, which often come with reduced portfolio values and emotional turmoil. In addition, drops come when the economy is weak, and many people need to use their money for personal or family needs while income is temporarily reduced. This underlies the primary weakness of the buy-and-hold strategy. This solid strategy is only successful if held to consistently. However, most people cannot or will not follow through on it in difficult times. Thus, it may be less effective than we traditionally imagine. No, the strategy itself is not flawed, but practically speaking, it may not be viable for real life.

Each investor needs to consider his/her own investing patterns. If you are inclined to disinvest during downtimes, a thorough re-evaluation may be in line. Re-evaluate both your strategy choices and your ability to maintain them. If you are unable to keep focused or are likely to have circumstance which prevent you from following your strategy when its most important, you need a different approach. There’s no benefit to having a wonderful game-plan that you can’t follow. Imagine a basketball coach whose plan includes putting in Michael Jordan when the team gets behind, but Michael Jordan isn’t on the team! If you are unable to follow a buy-and-hold strategy, your ability to profit in downtimes is severely restrained. Sadly, this is when the greatest opportunity is available. Thus, a compensating strategy must be developed.

Investors must realize, however, that increasing returns often comes with higher risk. Thus, if one cannot buy and hold when one finds it unpleasant, the other alternatives involve taking on greater risk. No one really wants to hear that, but it is hard truth. High returns require higher risk, and if you are unable to “weather the storm” in times like this (what I call easy risk), you’ll need to take larger short-term risks (hard risk), or else consign oneself to lower returns.

Easy risk is a long-term safety play. We risk that valuations will fluctuate, but over the long term we have confidence that they will be relatively stable. We give up our ability to observe high valuations, knowing that what we own is still the same.

Hard risk involves taking real, serious, short-term gambles. It is not a strategy that I advise, nor is it the wisest approach to investing, but it is a corner that people sometimes paint themselves into. That’s bad!

We continue to advise our readers to stick with the buy-and-hold strategy. While there is obviously risk of fluctuating prices, these tend to balance themselves out in the long-run. If you have a long-run focus, buy-and hold is still the safest approach. That’s good!

To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson’s Investment Advisor Services, visit http://www.valueview.net

Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor’s Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.

Have you seen all those big full page ads for hedge funds in the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, Investors Business Daily? You haven’t. Maybe they are being drowned out by the regular mutual funds who continually tell you how great they are.

Shucks! I forgot. Hedge funds are not allowed to advertise. I wonder why. Maybe they think that their potential customers are too dumb to know that hedge funds are a poor investment. Could be. The Securities and Exchange Commission is trying to protect investors – I think?

To be able to buy into a hedge fund the smallest investor must have a net worth of $1,000,000 and an income of more than $200,000 per year. Maybe the SEC doesn’t think these folks are bright enough to know a good thing when they see it.

There are other groups that are major investors with the hedge funds. Literally billions of dollars are invested by university endowments, charitable trusts, state and corporate pension plans. Could it be that they have a better return than regular mutual funds? Naw! The media would tell you wouldn’t they?

The media is there to report the facts. It is hard to believe that just because a large portion of their income is from advertising revenues of mutual funds that they would be lax about this.

If you were a fund manager and your fund was under performing and it was reported in the local paper, TV, or radio would you pay them to carry your advertising? You sure would not want to be compared with performance of a hedge fund.

What is it that makes the difference of a standard mutual fund with a hedge fund? Why does the smart money gravitate to them? One word. Performance. A regular hedge fund manager is paid on HOW MUCH money he has in his fund and not on how much he makes for the investor. The hedge fund manager is paid a percentage of the PROFITS he makes for the investors. No profit means no bonus so he better do the job or he will be out of a job. Smart money moves. It moves to where the profit is being made.

The SEC will not allow standard mutual fund managers to be compensated in this manner. Their claim is that it will be too dangerous for the small investor. Hog wash! If a fund is losing money the little guy should be selling his current funds like the smart money and finding a better performing fund. None of the media recommend this to the little guy.

My guess is there are enough intelligent fund managers who would like to be paid for performance and would set up no-load funds to attract investors. The SEC seems to think more of the funds than they do of the smaller investors.

It is a shame you can’t check the advertising claims of standard mutual funds against the returns of hedge funds.

Copyright 2005

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Ever notice how behavior in one area of life can apply to behavior in other areas of life? For example, I’ve noticed a number of things while driving that apply to online trading. One of them is regarding how people behave toward traffic signals.

In the USA, where I live, all the traffic lights are red, yellow, green - red for stop, yellow for slow down or caution and green for go. The lights always change in order from red to yellow to green and back again to red after a time.

How drivers relate to the changing lights is NOT always the same. There are three types of drivers and responses to seeing a green light:

Type one drivers believe the light will change to red at any moment. In anticipation of the change, they begin to slow down far in advance. I call them "Red Lighters."

Type two drivers know green means it’s ok to go. They continue on their present course and speed, making no changes at all as they approach the light. I call them "Green Lighters."

Type three drivers know the light could turn yellow at any moment, so they step on the accelerator to catch up to the light as quickly as possible, not wanting to miss it. I call them the "Yellow Lighters."

Many people apply these same approaches to most of life’s opportunities, including online trading. Maybe you do the same thing.

If you see an opportunity approaching, do you slow down, believing that since it won’t last you shouldn’t be too hasty or you could be stuck in a bad deal? "Red Lighter."

Or, do you see the opportunity coming, and just let it come at its own pace, taking your time and accepting whatever happens when it reaches you? "Green Lighter."

Or, do you rush to it, knowing that it could be gone at any moment so best to jump on it immediately so you don’t miss out? "Yellow Lighter."

Each of these approaches has its risks, and its rewards. Red Lighters take no risks, and therefore never "push their luck" by hurrying into anything. On the other hand, what risks are they actually taking by potentially missing out on opportunity?

Green Lighters just want to travel safely and smoothly. They don’t mind what happens along the way so they just keep going with the flow of traffic. Sounds smart, doesn’t it? Yet, what real gain is there in being "just like everyone else"?

Yellow Lighters don’t want to miss any opportunity so will do whatever is needed to capture the potential reward. But how big is their risk in being first?

Each is going the same direction, and could even be in the exact same type of vehicle, but none is actually any more guaranteed to arrive at their destination than the other. The Yellow Lighter will probably get there the fastest, but could also get into an accident along the way from so much speeding. The Green Lighter will arrive safely in a reasonable time, but will likely arrive with the rest of the crowd and never be early. The Red Lighter will probably always be late, and will typically spend so much time on the road that they never get to fully enjoy their destination.

Which are you? Which do you want to be? How do you assess risk and reward in your financial decisions, your daily activities, your life? Like it or not, everything we do every day has a risk and an associated reward.

Getting in a car each day and driving to work carries with it the very real risk of death from a traffic accident, with the reward on the other side of the commute being a paycheck. Everyone must assess the risks and rewards in their life for themselves on an ongoing basis, something that I myself do constantly every day and that I encourage you to do as well. You just might be surprised at the trades you find yourself making unconsciously.

I invite you to notice your trading style and adjust it according to the results you wish to achieve. Being conscious of our behavior patterns and changing them when appropriate can make all the difference in online trading success.

Jonathan van Clute is a full time real estate investor, educator, speaker, and online options trader. In addition to his business activities, he is also a musician, video editor/animator, and one of the world’s greatest Segway Polo athletes. He can be reached via email at jonathan@PMLinvestments.com.

Both the stock market and oil prices rallied recently, which seems to be a paradox, because high oil prices are negative for earnings (i.e. a higher production cost and a higher consumer tax). However, the stock market was worried about another "soft patch," of slower economic growth, and the sharp rise in oil prices suggest the U.S. economy is still expanding at above trend growth.

The two charts below are same period daily charts of SPX and OIH. The short-term technical indicators suggest SPX is near a top, e.g. VIX closing at a multi-year low, VXN closing at an all-time low, and the NYSE Oscillator’s 20 day MA at an extreme level. Also, Nasdaq closed at 2,090 Fri, and 2,100 is major resistance. SPX rallied to 1,219.5 Fri, and 1,220 may be resistance. SPX may be creating a bearish head & shoulders pattern, with the left shoulder at 1,217.9, the head at 1,229.1, and the right shoulder at 1,220 (see chart). SPX may pullback, consolidate, and become more volatile next week. Major support is about 1,200, the current 20 day MA, which SPX held over the rally, and 1,200, in general, which is psychological support and a congestion area. Major resistance is at 1,220 and 1,229 (the recent high).

OIH closed at an all-time high and created a bearish hammer Fri. Major resistance is Fri’s high at 104. Major support is at 100.30 (previous highs), and the 10 day MA, currently at 99 1/4. There’s also an open gap at just below 95 1/2, and Jul Max Pain is still 95. OIH rose about 20 points, while oil rose from $47 to about $59 a barrel. Consequently, if oil falls to the low $50s, then OIH may retrace 50% of the 20 point rise. The steep rise (also, see MACD) suggests a consolidation period soon. Both the RSI and Oscillator (ULT) are severely overbought, particularly for an index.

Perhaps, the oil market has discounted future events that would influence oil prices, e.g. stonger than expected global growth, the start of hurricane season Jun 1st, which may affect oil platforms and refineries in the Gulf, end-of-the-quarter window dressing, and the 4th of July holiday, which is the start of the summer driving season. Also, I may add, the U.S. oil strategic reserve is filled up. So, the federal government isn’t draining oil from the market. Moreover, China’s economy is "overheating," and it’s to China’s benefit to grow at a sustainable rate, to prevent inefficiencies.

Next week is a light economic and earnings data week. So, oil prices may have a more influencial effect on stock prices. Consequently, SPX puts, for example, may hedge OIH puts. Both SPX and OIH are at high levels. Economic reports next week are: Mon: Leading Economic Indicators, Thu: Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales, and Fri: Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. Also, the U.S. weekly oil inventory data Wed should move oil prices. I believe, the positive correlation in stocks and oil will decouple next week, because the longer oil prices stay high, the more negative it will affect earnings of non-energy stocks. Arthur Eckart, PeakTrader.com

See PeakTrader.com Market Overview section in Forum Index for charts.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past three years.

Fundamental analysis.

Fundamentals analysis says the best way to predict the future trends of a stock is to understand the financial figures of the underlying company. The fundamental analyst would calculate a theoretical value of the company using cash flow analysis, recent dividends and earnings, future dividends and earnings projections plus a host of other economic numbers. If the current stock price is lower than the calculated value, a trader who uses fundamental analysis would buy this stock.

This writer has the opinion that fundamental analysis is difficult to master for it to be useful as a forecasting tool. Understanding and analyzing balance sheets and profit and loss accounts is not enough. You will need to analyze the micro and macroeconomic picture as well. Often you will need to be have the same knowledge equivalent to senior-management of a company you want to analyze – minus the leadership and management skills.

Take the example of Google’s free 2 GB e-mail service. How much does it cost them? Probably about $2 yearly for each customer. Assuming 100 million internet users sign up, the advertising revenues from this segment alone would provide a tidy profit. It is the analyst job to provide a good educated-guess of this number. More importantly, this new signings will provide a customer base to challenge Yahoo and Microsoft. With Google’s dominance in the search engine market, the data mining of such a huge pool of internet users will provide them with an edge in deciding future strategies over its two nearest rivals. Try translating this to what can Google earn in the next two quarters.

One of the better tools is the Z-Score, developed by Edward Altman, a financial economist and professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, in 1968 to predict corporate bankruptcies within a two-year period. This formula has a 70-plus percent accuracy rate

Technical analysis.

The “price action discounts everything” premise is central to charting, also known as technical analysis. Technical analysis uses graphic representations for prices and makes uses of various quantitative techniques to forecast price trends.

A technician makes profits in any market by having positions in line with the price trend. When the trend is up, then buy. Conversely, when the trend is down, then look to sell. Technical analysis is not an exact science, but it is easy to learn and effective.

Technical analysis is a good starting point for beginners. The foundation should include classical technical analysis, Japanese candlesticks, trendlines, RSI, MACD, ADX, stochastics and moving averages. Learners can complete these core topics within three to six months. With constant practice, you should be able to independently analyze and identify the current trends in the stock market.

Most users of stock charts may only focus on daily charts. However, if users pay equal attention to weekly as well as monthly charts, the picture is intuitively more complete. This is equivalent to understanding how the short, medium and long-term investors are viewing the markets, after all three main types of investors form the market. A handful of stock charting software has this feature of showing say, the relative strength index for the daily, weekly and monthly values on a single screen.

One last point - no single method in technical analysis is sufficient for real-world investing. For example, even if you master Elliott Wave Theory or Gann techniques, by itself it would bring more heartache and disappointment. Often, you will need knowledge from other disciplines and sources to improve your overall investing skills.

Some tips for successful investing in stock markets.

1. Investing is a business. The rules of running a profitable business are the same as investing in stock markets.

2. Learn to spot your own mistakes fast. When a mistake is made, exit your position and live to fight any day. The faster you realize your own mistake and the faster you react will reduce your losses, hence increasing your chances of winning in the long run. A useful method is using a 10% stop loss exit strategy. If you are long, and your stock price goes down by 10%, exit. If this same stock reverses and starts to surge, take this as your mistake of not identifying a more accurate (lower) entry point.

3. Understand yourself inside out. What makes you happy, sad, excited, depressed, ecstatic - the whole spectrum of human emotions are merely states of the mind. This is easier said than done but you have to keep improving your own control mechanisms.

4. Learn the methods of successful fund managers – diversification, emotional detachment and having realistic expectations. Investing is a marathon not a sprint.

5. Money management skills. Whether the amount is $10,000 or $10 billion, the same rules apply. There are plenty of sources of information on this subject from the internet.

6. Learn technical analysis.

The main thrust of this article is to avoid making mistakes that will cost you dearly. How you prepare yourself for bear markets, sideways markets and market crashes are vital to your success.

There are no secrets in investing – no magic formula, no discovery of some useful ancient secrets. Just knowledge, hard work, common sense and discipline will serve you well in the years ahead. This verse from a 2500-years-old text is a useful reminder:

“Those who know do not speak, Those who speak do not know.”
- Tao Te Ching, 56th verse

Stan Seecrets’ Postulate: “There are two types of people in the world – those who know what they don’t know and those who don’t know what they don’t know.”

You may freely reprint this article provided you publish it in its entirety, including the author’s bio and activating the link to the URL below.

The author, Stan Seecrets, is a veteran software developer with 25+ years experience at (http://www.seecrets.biz) which specializes in protecting digital assets. He has developed real-time prices delivery systems and has witnessed stock markets collapse of 1987 and 2000/2001 in real-time. You can contact him via email (Stan at Seecrets.biz).

© Copyright 2005, Stan Seecrets. All rights reserved.

One of the greatest challenges of investing in stocks is developing a “sell discipline”. Some of the most adept investors struggle with the decision of when to sell.

First, recognize that there are no absolute formulas to tell us to sell at precisely the right time. Instead, we’ll need to consider a bundle of factors such as the investment’s characteristics, the broad economy, and your own needs, with an eye to market trends. The answer will come from some combination of these hard-to-quantify characteristics.

If you’ll need cash soon, for whatever reason, you should be more ready to sell, especially if a stock becomes less of a sure thing. Similarly, if the economy is weak, we might be more motivated to take profits (or even losses) in stocks which are sensitive to economic swings, while a strong economy might allow us to hold tight.

Most important, however, is the intrinsic value of the stock itself. A simple rule plays out here: buy when a stock is under-valued (when the stock sells for less than its intrinsic value), and sell when it is over-valued (priced above intrinsic value). The trick is measuring intrinsic value, which can be done many different ways. We’ll talk about measuring intrinsic value more at another time, but regardless of how we measure it, we had to have an idea of what the company was actually worth when we bought it. So, if we reach that target, we can start thinking about taking profits. It isn’t always necessary to sell out immediately, though. For a pure value stock, we should sell somewhere in that range, but if the company is expected to grow, we can wait longer and take advantage of that growth. Perhaps, as a rule of thumb, wait until the stock reaches a price double what we think it’s worth. Of course, this is a personal decision, too, and depends on how patient you are, and how much you have invested. At this point, the “easy money” has already been made.

Market Trends. It is our firm position that market trends alone should never lead to buying or selling a stock. However, if we’ve already decided to sell, trend indicators, used carefully, can enhance profits. For example, if a stock is in a solid uptrend that shows no signs of slowing, it may be profitable to wait for the stock to approach a short-term top before selling. Beware that you don’t hold too long. Better to sell early than late. Eventually the market will catch on to reality, so if your evaluation of the stock is right, the risk of holding on too long can be far greater than the small benefit from holding out for that extra dollar.

A few other errors to avoid:

Don’t avoid selling because you’re emotionally attached to a stock. Circumstances change over time. There’s no reason to beat yourself up over it. Just dump the loser and move on.

Don’t sell when panicked. Panic is an emotional response, and usually wells up when things aren’t going your way but you can’t tell why. Know why you want to act. Until you can make a judgment about why to sell, it’s probably best to hold on and wait out the fear.

Don’t sell when worried. In many ways, worry is similar to panic, if a bit milder. It is still an emotion, and one that should be controlled. Stocks are often said to “climb a wall of worry”, which means that they will ease upward through difficult times. When news is worrisome, but not devastating, the only remaining catalysts are good things, as all the bad news has probably already been factored in by selling among the worrywarts.

Don’t sell when bored. Just because a stock isn’t moving doesn’t mean it was a bad selection. It may just indicate that you’re smarter (and therefore earlier) than the market hordes. If you’re still convinced it was a good choice, hold firm and wait for everyone to catch on to your wisdom. Especially with value stocks, it can often take a year or longer before the mainstream recognizes a good stock, and that’s when the price will start moving. Patience is a virtue.

In the end, every selling decision is a personal one, and must balance out all the factors we’ve mentioned. The most important rule, of course, is to sell when it benefits YOU.

To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson’s Investment Management Services, visit http://www.valueview.net

Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As editor and publisher of Investor’s Value View, a national investment newsletter, he provides general money tips and investment advice to readers, and demonstrates a special knack for locating the up-and-coming stocks in the burgeoning high-tech industries. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients.

Analyzing growth stocks is an important focus for any investor. This is especially important, since stocks are an irreplaceable part of any good investment plan, and since unbiased stock research is hard to find. Still, we need to look at the big picture once in a while. Since so much has changed lately, this may be a good time to “take stock”. Many have reevaluated their investment strategies. The problem is that many of these reevaluations are moving people away from their goals. As the market has dropped, rather than moving toward buying at the cheaper prices, we’ve seen people move away from stocks, a strategy which has little long-term benefit.

THE PICTURE

It’s all about planning for the future. The first step is to picture the future you have in mind. Most of us already have part of the picture in our sights. We picture ourselves in a home, with food, heat, clothing — the necessities. Beyond the basics, some of us may picture ourselves raising a family and possibly supporting our kids’ education or business ventures or helping them buy their first home. Others may imagine supporting a church or charity, or accomplishing some great humanitarian goal. Most imagine some type of vacation at least once in a lifetime, or a personal goal that we’ve always wanted to achieve. Regardless of specifics, trying to get as clear a picture of your intentions as possible is an important first step. Once we know where we’re going, we can begin mapping our path

THE PLAN

Those who fail to plan, have already planned to fail. It is nearly impossible to reach a goal if there’s no strategy in place. Of course, there are a variety of personal decisions and trade-offs involved in any plan, and only a portion of these involve finances. Let’s focus here on the financial dimension of the plan, because the financial decisions are often the ones that prevent us from reaching our goals. Financial decisions are never easy, and the issues quite often reach to the core of our being. They involve our deepest values, our choices of what is most important in our lives. If other people are involved in our life, we need to balance our values with those of our families.

Creating the financial plan involves three steps: goal-setting, measurement and implementation.

Goal-setting requires us to determine both the specific achievements we desire and the timing of these achievements. For example, it is not enough to know that we want to own a 1000 square foot home on the beach in Hawaii. We must also identify any time-frames we have in mind. Measurement requires us to evaluate the cost of our goals, and determine our pacing. We must figure out what it will take, then, based upon our timing needs, pace our plan by calculating what the per-year savings must be and the growth rate our saving must achieve to accomplish that goal. Pacing for our goals is the most technical portion of the planning process, and often where people fall down on the job. Inflation in the economy is a complicating factor here too. If we don’t take inflation into account, a long-term plan is often doomed. Imagine someone who saved up for 30 years to buy a house, ignoring inflation. She’d have saved up $25,000, and wouldn’t be able to afford anything. Her cost calculation must recognize that money loses value over time. Making these calculations can seem intimidating for the inexperienced. We have charts and graphs that we use to assist our clients in making these judgments, but for those who aren’t nearby, the American Savings Education Council has some excellent resources on the web that are fairly simple to use.

Once we’ve gone to the trouble of learning precisely what we need to achieve our goals, its time to begin translating these specifics into an action plan. This is part of the plan implementation. The implementation stage requires us to determine the best way to reach our (now very specific) goals. The factors we will need to look at include income levels, savings decisions, and investment strategies.

Alas, this is all part of the next installment in this column. Stay tuned.

To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson’s Investment Management Services, visit http://www.valueview.net

Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor’s Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.