I constantly hear the talking heads on CNBC-TV, the radio and other places talking about THE market. Of course, they mean the stock market which actually now is world wide and no longer just concentrated in New York. To every New Yorker New York is the center of the world from which radiates all knowledge and everything else worthwhile.

The stock market is thousands of companies world wide. Those that have been listed with the New York Stock Exchange must meet strict requirements as to the capitalization of the company and the price of their stock as well as its ability to be traded so there must be many thousands of shares and large numbers of shareholders.

The trick, and I call it that even though it isn’t, is to be able to tell when it is in an up trend and when it is going down. If you knew this you could not only make a lot of money but could keep from giving back profits when you have them. When the market is going up you want to own stocks and mutual funds because 60% of a move in stocks is due to the general direction of the overall market.

When I first invested I made and lost like everyone else until I learned to listen to the voice of Mr. Market. Because we are so overwhelmed with useless data from brokers, newspapers, magazines, TV, friends and other nefarious sources we haven’t taken the time to learn the language of the market. And it isn’t that complicated. Mr. Market will tell you all you need to know.

Most of us don’t have time to be pouring over the financial news every day because we have a life that requires our attention, but if you are willing to give about 15 minutes each week you can learn the language of Mr. Market. Day trading language is not where it’s at; however, the long term language is very easy. You simply plot a 200-day moving average of the S&P500 Index and when the index price is above the 200-DMA you buy and when it is below you sell and put your money in a money market fund.

Now I know that seems too simple, but it isn’t. You can easily check it out with a historical study on many Internet web sites. I use www.bigcharts.com by clicking on the red Interactive box and then following the instructions in the left hand column. With this simple method you will always be on the right side of the market.

The mutual funds in this simple plan only need to be checked once each week and sometimes only monthly. If you have a 401K you should be able to transfer to a money market fund when a sell signal is given with no commission charges. It will be a rare occasion if you do this twice a year.

This not a get-rich-quick scheme. It will allow you to keep most of the profits you have made during a bull market and protect your funds during a bear phase.

Al Thomas

Author of "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!"

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

The big bad bear is stirring again. So far he has stretched, yawned and peaked out of his cave. After his almost year-long nap he is hungry. A nice big steak would hit the spot.

That steak comes from cattle and not too far from his den there is a fat complacent bull munching in the pasture. He has his tail towards the bear and Mr. Bear remembers that 3 years ago he walked up to another bull and bit him in the backside. It looks like he can do it again.

We know who bull and bear really are. It seems that almost everyone is bullish and thinks we are in another bull market like the one in 1999 where all investors thought they were geniuses. History has taught (for those who wish to listen and learn) that major bull markets are followed by bear markets of equal length. The major bull came to an end after 18 years in 2000. Can we expect an 18-year bear market? If history repeats its cycle the answer is yes.

The recent return of the upward movement of stock prices from last year is very typical of rallies in bear markets. Many have a 50% retracement of the first down leg (as happened after the big break in 1929) that tops out with the resumption of the downward path.

Today our bull is feeding on the lowest interest rates in 40 years, a tax cut that puts extra money in the hands of consumers (where it belongs) and a strong housing market plus the belief that the market always does well in an election year. Let’s hope all these things will come to pass.

The worst problem for investors is their complacency. They start making money and forget to protect their profits. These slip away when the market starts down and their broker says, “Don’t worry. The market always comes back”. If the investor did not learn to protect his assets from the 2000 debacle he is doomed to lose again. What should he do?

He should protect his investment account with stop-loss orders on all stocks and mental stops for all mutual funds. Brokers hate this and will try to talk their clients out of doing it. Why? Because he makes a commission as long as you are invested and nothing if you have cash in your money market.

It is better to make 1% in a money market than lose 20% or more of the principle as the market heads south. You don’t have to be a market “expert” to place a stop. Decide how much risk you are will to take 5%, 10%, 15%? And place your stop accordingly.

When this bear comes out of his cave don’t let him bite you – you know where.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

I love roller coasters. The steeper the better. High and fast and curvy. Yahoo! Let’s go again. But to get to the drop off point you have a slow grind up.

Kinda reminds me of the stock market for the past 3 years. From 1982 to 2000 it was 18 years of up, up and away with very little down. From 2000 it was over the edge, down, down, down with few hints that we are going up. Recently, since October, there has been a respite and we have seen an advance of about 25%. Can we get back to the top? Gosh I hope so, but I have to remember this is a roller coast and it goes back to where it started. Oh, NO! That is OK for amusement rides, but in the stock market that is not amusing.

In the roller coaster I expect to be let off where I got on, but in the stock market I want to stay up near the top because if I don’t I will lose my money and that is no fun at all. Is there any way I can protect my money when I am near the top and not give it back to go to the bottom where I have to start all over again?

The first thing you need to know is whether the stock market is going up or down. Despite what Wall Street tells you this is relatively easy to do. I know because I have been doing it for years. Here is one simple way and won’t require any work on your part. In the Investor’s Business Daily newspaper there is a Mutual Fund Index. When the price of the index is above the 200-day moving average the market is going up and you will want to be a buyer of stocks and mutual funds. What you buy is up to you. When the price of the index is below the 200-day line you should sell out of everything and be in cash, money market account or bonds. That simple. Anyone can do it.

One of the big Wall Street lies is that you cannot time the market. Wrong. If you don’t believe it you can prove it to yourself by doing a historical study of what I have just said. Buy as many shares of the S&P500 Index as you can with $10,000 starting back in 1998 and sell the shares each time you have a penetration of the IBD Index. Buy and sell going back as many years as you like. Now compare the amount you have using this method with that same amount if you had just bought it and held it continuously.

I won’t tell you, but you will be in for a shock. Buy and hold will show a loss while getting off the down roller coaster each time weakness occurred you would have protected your investments.

Roller coasters can be fun, but not in the stock market.

Al Thomas

Author of "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!"

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

I am hearing predictions by brokers, financial planners, talk show hosts and the talking heads on TV that the market is going back to its old highs - DOW 11,700 and NASDAQ 5000 here we come.

It seems to me that in 2000 I heard these same people saying there was no top to the market and were looking into their crystal balls for DOW 30,000 or some other fantastic number. Suddenly the market turned over with the DOW dropping 3,000 points and the NASDAQ losing 80% of its value. Can it happen again? I don’t predict and all I can say is the market can do anything.

BUT what if it does turn down? Are you going to sit as you did before and watch your money disappear? Right now everything looks rosy and the momentum is carrying the indexes higher almost every day. Buy and hold is the right strategy.

Hind sight is always 20/20 and you will want to own stocks and mutual funds now, but not get caught in the next down draft. There will be one! There always has and you can see it clearly if you are a student of market history. Since 1900 there have been 16 to 18-year cycles of bull and bear markets and within those there have been other shorter cycles of ups and downs.

Many brokers and investors try to predict when those turns will occur and they are mostly wrong. It is definitely not a good idea to try to outguess the market. You must learn to read the rather obvious signs of the major turns. I say obvious, but it is clear they are not obvious to most brokers or financial planners. Having been a professional trader, exchange member and floor trader for many years I will tell you the obvious ‘secret’.

Using a 200-day moving average of any one of the major indexes (I prefer the S&P500) you can plot these every day and when the index penetrates the 200-day line in an upward direction it is a signal to buy. That is where we are now. Inversely when it penetrates that line going down it is time to sell and put your money in cash or bonds. If you don’t want to do the math computations there is an excellent chart in the Investor’s Business Daily newspaper called their Mutual Fund Index that will do all the work for you.

It is nothing more complicated than that and you can go back into history as far as you wish and you will see it proven time after time. You are holding stocks or funds while the market is going up and you are in cash while it is going down. Don’t be fooled by “research” or by any other complicated method. This works.

There is no need to predict the market. It will tell you in simple language what it is doing and whether you should be a buyer or seller.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

The ABC’s of Stock Trading Success

Stock trading success…why is it so elusive?

With all the trading information, systems, trading advice and assistance available today, the fact that most people who attempt to profit from trading Stocks lose money seems quite bizarre.

Can you imagine the millions of dollars that must have been spent by countless traders on courses and Stock analysis software, that was wasted because the buyers didn’t understand the key principle of trading success I am about to share with you now.

We aren’t going to need any charts for this lesson…just your ability to comprehend the value of what I am about to share with you and your willingness to take action - right now I want to share with you the ABC’s of trading success.

If trading was an easy business to master and profits were freely available to all, every punter with a computer and a free charting program would be a millionaire and the streets of our cities would be clogged with chauffer driven limousines.

The fact that the majority of the population have no idea how to make a buck from the Stock Market, often after spending large amounts of money on education and trading losses, made me wonder why this is so.

I searched for the answer to profitable trading for years, until I found it in an unexpected place, when I wasn’t looking for it at all.

You may be able to relate to this story, or you might just be starting out and this will help you to reduce the time you spend in your initial learning stages and speed up your path to profits.

Let me tell you about Jim (not his real name…of course). Jim first started trading after answering an ad in the Brisbane Courier Mail for a popular trading education package that cost him around $1000.

Little did he know that the fateful investment in that course would lead him into the abyss of Gann analysis, and that it would eventually cost him thousands of dollars in courses and trading losses to pull himself out the other side.

He read the course, watched the videos, read the course, watched the videos…you get the picture.

Losses, losses, small profit, losses. He felt that because of his limited knowledge, he had to learn more and more in order to stop the losses and to start profiting from the market. So he spent more and more on courses - and his trading got worse and worse.

The more he learnt, the less he seemed to know and the worse his results became. Then, he finally learnt about the A, B, C triangle of success, in trading and in every other area of life, from one of his property mentors - John Fitzgerald.

The A, B, C’s stand for -

A - Awareness

B - Belief

C - Conduct

Awareness - He realised that he already did in fact know enough to become a successful trader and investor. He had studied many books and courses on trading and had everything he needed in the way of practical trading information to make a profit.

He was aware of what it took to trade profitably. He could become a good, a great trader, if he could just develop the second factor…

Belief - If he could bring himself to believe that he was a good trader, he would become a good trader.

He didn’t need more knowledge at that time, because he had a firm grasp of the basics. He simply had to believe in himself and his abilities and the profits would follow.

The third leg of the success triangle

Conduct - Was were he was falling down.

He would look at a chart of a Stock or market, and decide on a trading strategy using his understanding of trends – he was calm, detached and unemotional - just like his written trading plan told him to be.

His success rate was good at finding profitable trades - but his conduct was the problem…

He had no trouble placing the trade while the market was closed. He would simply call his Broker and give him the order.

Then, the market would open. His calm, detached, unemotional state would turn into panic.

He would feel physically sick at times, scared in case his analysis was wrong and he lost money on the trade.

He honestly believed that he couldn’t afford to lose any money (the poor mans mindset) so he focused on losing.

He got what he focused on… He watched his trades like a hawk, and at the first sign of a reversal against his position, he would either call his broker and exit the trade, or move his stop loss order to a place where he was virtually guaranteed of being knocked out by the normal fluctuations of the market.

He simply had too much leverage - he was over trading.

He was continually setting himself up to fail.

His conduct was the weak link in his trading success triangle.

Because he was continually losing money on his trades, albeit only small amounts, his belief system started to falter, and he saw himself as a losing trader even more - then he started to think he had two weak sides on the success triangle – conduct and belief.

He started to question the system he was using, which he had painstakingly back tested, over many markets on hand drawn charts and knew was solid, but his failure to have control of his conduct or belief made it look like it wasn’t a good system at all.

So, how to fix it…

He sat down and looked at his recent trading results, and noticed that on most occasions, if he had stayed in the trade, he would have made a profit. His system was valid. His Awareness was enabling him to find and execute profitable trades.

His Belief system needed a gentle prod after several losing trades in a row, but because he had done so much study and work on back testing, he knew he deserved to be successful.

He started to visualise himself in his trading room, making profitable, long term trades and enjoying the benefits that this type of trading would bring to himself and his family.

Then, he worked on his conduct. He again wrote out his trading plan, and decided that he would treat his plan like a shipwrecked sailor treats a life raft.

He would cling to it until he was forced out of a trade by the actions of the market, not by his fearful, emotional response to the actions of the market.

He started placing his stop loss orders in a position so that the market had to change trend in order to take him out of a trade. In other words, a logically placed, technically correct stop loss position.

He then reduced his position size to allow for these stop loss orders being further away from the price action, so that his account was never at risk of being totally wiped out by one serious loss.

He did a pre-trade and post trade analysis sheet, so he could analyze his performance and try to consistently improve his results.

(This can be as simple as a sheet of paper where you write down your order, the position of the market and your thoughts and feelings before, during and after a trade.

Or it can be an elaborate system of checks and balances that guide you through each of your trades. Be careful though - keep it simple or you probably won’t use it!)

Once he started to do this, he started to make money (with the exact system we have been teaching you on this Website).

(There are, of course, many other strategies and systems you can use in addition to the lessons we teach you to increase your profits, but to start with, these methods are all you really need to become a profitable trader.)

We are always learning and improving - every trader should strive to do this also.

When you are making consistent profits using the methods we have shared with you, investigate some of these additional entry and exit techniques, but not at the start. Keep it simple.

When he started to trade this way, he found it was far better to take a small position with a loose stop loss and be able to sleep at night, than his previous strategy of using maximum leverage and stressing out whenever he was in the market, to the point where he couldn’t stand to walk away from his screen in case the position went against him.

This method sets up lots of profits and a few losses. Much better than the alternative he had previously used.

He then started looking for Stocks that trended strongly for long periods of time, and was drawn to the US Stock Market.

He used exactly the same entry and analysis techniques I have shown you on the Website, and -

He bought Call options in Gen Probe Inc (GPRO) with the Stock at $27 and held on until the Stock price was $58 three months later.

He bought Pacificare Health Systems Call options (PHS) when it was trading at $24 and held them to $51 four months later.

And he bought Sandisc Corp Call options (SNDK) with the Stock at $24 and held them to $58 less than four months later.

(Please Note - these are not Stock recommendations, they are merely mentioned here for illustration and educational purposes and the trades are hypothetical examples).

Can you imagine the change in the size of his trading account balance?

None of these Stocks had given him any reason to sell earlier, so he simply held on for the ride…Awareness, Belief, Conduct…the success triangle.

The Awareness will come when you study and really ‘get’ the lessons on the Website and in the Newsletter.

Study the lessons carefully, read books written by the masters. Teach others what you have learned - you will gain a better understanding yourself.

All human interaction is a chance to learn or to teach.

By teaching someone else and sharing your knowledge, you will learn any subject at a deeper level. You ultimately go from an intellectual understanding to an emotional understanding (as Robert Allen calls them, an aha!) of your chosen area of interest, in this case, profitable trading. Try it…

The Belief will come when you back test the Trading Plan I share with you on the Stocks that you want to trade and prove to yourself that it does indeed work.

Visualize yourself making a series of profitable trades. Feel how good it is to see the market moving in the direction you expected it to.

Imagine spending the profits you make trading Stocks with your family and friends, and the time you will have to do the things you want to do instead of the things you have to do. Successful trading gives you the ‘time freedom’ to do whatever it is that you want to do with your life. Do it first in your mind, and then do it in the market.

Your Conduct - well that’s up to you. Will you ‘decide’ to look at your written trading plan as your life raft? Cling to it as your last defense against the emotions of fear and greed that live inside each one of us?

Will you trade with the trend, enter off 1 to 4 day reactions to the main trend, reduce your leverage or position size and put your stop loss orders out of the way, so the market has to change trend to get you?

If you do this, you should be confident that you can achieve trading success. That is our wish for you. Good luck.

Now, lets review today’s lesson -

The Trading Success Triangle has as it’s three sides - Awareness, Belief and Conduct

If any of these elements are weak or missing, the triangle has no strength

The sides are all important and are dependent on each other, but Conduct is the most difficult for the average trader to master

Fear and Greed act to change our conduct from what our rational thoughts tell us is the correct course of action, to actions that aren’t always in our best interests. By controlling Fear and Greed, we can make rational decisions that help us to become profitable traders

I hope this lesson has helped you in understanding the mindset of a successful trader a little better.

Understanding these three critical elements of trading psychology will put you well on the way to a profitable trading career.

Get this, and your trading success is practically assured. Miss the lesson, and your chances of making big money in the Stock Market are profoundly limited.

Please feel free to share this lesson with your trading friends and associates - they will thank you for it.

To Your Trading Success,

Tony Spann and the Team

Stock Trading Review is dedicated to helping you succeed as a trader by sharing with you simple and easy to follow tips and techniques.

Discover more insider secrets and the exact proven strategies to trade stocks profitably: http://www.stocktradingreview.com

Copyright(C)2005 Stock Trading Review

The stock market has been going up for more than 7 months and many investors who held on through the big crash of 2000 are seeing their portfolios get back some of what had disappeared. Is now the time to sell those equities that are ‘even’ with what you paid for them? No.

The reason I say “no” is because that is a guess and to be a successful investor you don’t want to be guessing. That is a sure way to go broke. Then what is a better way? When you talk with a broker he never advises you to sell. In that case you could be sucked into another huge downward move. There must be a way.

Yes, there is. You let the market tell you. No, you don’t have to be clairvoyant. When you buy any stock or mutual fund the first question for your broker should be, “When do I sell?” If he says you should hold on ”for the long haul” I definitely recommend you fire him and find someone who knows how to protect your capital. If you buy a stock or fund for $40 per share you must know immediately how much you are willing to risk (lose) if that equity starts down instead of up. The same applies to giving back any of the profits you have earned.

When you are playing poker you don’t put more money in the pot when you have a mixed suit 2, 5 and 10. The best thing to do is fold.

Over the last few months almost everyone has seen his stock and funds go up and he thinks he is a genius for hanging on. Don’t confuse genius with a bull market. So what do I mean let the market tell you? It actually is very simple. You place an Open Stop Loss Order with your broker on all your stocks. You determine the risk and place the loss limit at that point. Some people use 10% and others may limit their loss to 7% and yet others to 15%. That is your risk quotient.

You will find that if your stock or fund is sold as a result of the stop loss that in 4 to 6 months that equity will be lower than where you got out even if it went higher for a short period of time. When a stop is executed don’t look back. Find another equity or keep your money in cash in a money market account. Cash is a position. Sometimes it will make you more money than owning any stock especially when the market is headed down.

People become confused by Wall Street into thinking that buying right is the way to make money. Wrong! The secret of success in the market is a well disciplined exit strategy. Know when to hold ‘em and know when to fold ‘em.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

There are major differences between trading stocks and trading futures. While stories of fortunes made or lost overnight on the futures markets are largely untrue, the futures trader, if using a sound trading system, can usually make more money on the futures market and make it much faster. However, if that trading system is not sound the trader can have greater losses.

This is because futures contracts are highly leveraged. Margins (the deposit required) on futures contracts are much less than for stocks, as low as 3% on some futures contracts compared with up to 50% for stocks. As well, futures investors are not charged interest on the difference between the margin and the full contract value.

The margins for futures contracts act more as a performance bond or good faith deposit whereas the margin for stocks is more of a loan. Although the margin on futures contracts is quite small, it rides the full value of the underlying contract as that contract rises or falls, thus providing the leverage mentioned earlier.

Commissions charged by futures brokerages are normally much less than brokerage commissions for other investments.

Futures markets use the open outcry (auction type) method of trading ensuring very public, fair, and efficient markets. Plus, it is much harder to trade on inside information as so many variables affect the markets. Also, futures markets are very liquid. Transactions can be completed quickly, which lowers the risk of adverse market moves

If you own stocks you are an owner of the company. This allows you to share in the company’s profits, and losses, through dividends, and increases or decreases in the stock’s value. It also gives you certain voting rights with the company. However, a company can go bankrupt, leaving you holding worthless stock.

When you buy and sell futures you are only entering into a contract and don’t really own anything. What you have is an agreement to buy a commodity or financial instrument (wheat or Treasury Bonds for example) at a specified price at a certain date in the future.

The person on the other side of the transaction has agreed to sell you that commodity or financial instrument at that specified price by the specified date. If you sell a futures contract prior to that date you have offset your position and have either a profit or loss on the trade.

The stock you bought 3 years ago is the same stock you can buy today. Futures contracts, on the other hand, have very limited lives. They are traded in a regular series of contract months referred to as delivery months.

Futures contracts have expiration dates after which no further trading for that month can take place. The September corn contract you traded last year is not the September corn contract you are trading this year. In fact last September’s corn contract no longer exists.

Many futures contract months of the same commodity trade simultaneously on the market, sometimes even years into the future. The current contract is called the front month and the other contracts are called the back months. They are called back months even though they are for future months.

For example, corn trades for the months of January, March, May, July, September, November and December. Suppose today’s date is August 4, 2000. The current contract month for corn would be September 2000 and so is called the front month. The months of November and December 2000, January 2001, March 2001, May 2001 and July 2001 are back months even though they are in the future and even flow into the next year. (This may sound confusing but its not …really)

All of these months can be traded at the same time although most of the trading activity takes place in the front month.

When the current month expires the next contract month becomes the front month and so on.

Rob Hall is a successful futures trader, President & CEO of his own investment firm, and international author. His books on learning to trade futures markets are distributed through Sumas International Sales Ltd. View them at http://www.futuresopps.com/Comm.htm

If you go to Haiti or other places in the Caribbean you may run into the Voodoo tradition of magic. There are long and mostly noisy rituals with the medicine man spouting words that bring great power and conjure up whatever it is the supplicant desires. Great amounts of smoke and mirrors.

Does this remind you of anything?

I hear the mesmerizing words of my broker telling me about a wonderful stock. He produces multicolored charts and graphs that dazzle my eyes. His chanting is “BUY, BUY, BUY”. I can’t resist. He has me under his spell. Thus the magic of Wall Street. Great amounts of smoke and mirrors.

Brokerage houses and mutual funds only want you to do one thing – BUY and HOLD. Never sell.

To escape the hold of these magicians you must start to think for yourself. I am sure you realize that for the past 3 years you have been losing money. The recent rally has returned some of your losses and Maul Street wants you to hang in there as the rest of your money will be returning. Maybe. If the broker (magician) keeps doing what he has been doing you are going to get more of the same results. If you have lost 30 to 50% of your savings during the past 3 years don’t you think you could do as well without the “help” of a broker or financial planner?

OK. No more glossy colored folders (smoke and mirrors) about how wonderful a company is. If you know it then so does everyone else. This type of ‘research’ is worthless. Leave that to the mutual fund managers. It seems to be what they do best - or is it worst?

Wall Street preaches the lie that if you hold you will make money, but that is only half the story. You have to be able to hold for 30 years. Oh, they forgot to tell you that?

The most important thing about the stock market is not buying – it is selling. Did you realize that every 10 years about 40% of the S&P500 index changes? Mr. Standard and Mr. Poor realize you can’t hold onto a loser so they drop out the weak ones and replace with stocks that are going up.

You want to be in the market when it is going up, not down. You have to know when the market is going up and that is called market timing. It is not cheating by late trading; it is understanding that the long term trend is up (or down) and you want to own funds at the time (or be out of the market entirely). A broker or financial planner will not help you, but it is very easy to learn. Go to the search engine called www.Google.com and type in market timing. You will be flooded with information.

You must to get out from under the Voodoo spell of Buy and Hold as it is a guaranteed loser.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

I go to the Money Show every year to visit with friends who have booths and are speakers. Then when folks are filing out of lectures I listen to their comments on what I know the speaker has been saying.

The Money Show is for investors from all walks of life; however, my guess is the median age is close to 60. Those who go have accumulated a nest egg and now are retired or very close to retirement. They came to learn more about how to make their money grow.

Last year there were 256 separate events not counting what was given in the Exhibition Hall. Almost without exception speakers were showing how cash can accumulate faster if the listener bought his product whether it was a mutual fund, stock, bond, partnership or who knows what. Are there that many money makers out there?

One speaker had an hour telling the market was due to crash and the thing to do was buy long term put options. He also said if you would not do that to buy some government bonds which were paying about 2 to 3%. The exit comments I heard were pretty well summed up by one lady who said, “Is he nuts. How can we live off 2%?”

When you are in a bear market the old saying is, “He who loses the least is a winner”. No, you can’t live on that small a return, but you can lose large sums by trying to be invested at all times. There have been many years in the past where cash with no percent return beat the heck out of the stock market.

Go back to 2000 and remember the NASDAQ lost 78% of it value in 3 years. Since March 2000 investors in the 50 hottest-selling mutual funds have lost an average of 42% according to the Lipper Analyst. Fidelity Magellan, the largest fund at that time remains a loser of 23% and Janus, 4th largest, is down 45%.The Buy N Holders have still not recovered their investments.

If you had sold out near (I did not say at) the top, say within about 10 or 15% your account would have been pretty darn healthy when it finally did start back up. You would not have lost 30 to 40% or more of your hard-earned money. That is what I refer to as a “reverse profit”.

If you had put a loss limit on your portfolio of 10% on each position and taken out just enough to live on it probably would that have been less than letting it stay invested in the market? You can easily check that.

Putting 100% of your money in a money market while the market is declining does not mean you are not invested. You are invested – in cash. This protects your savings from huge losses that can and do occur regularly in market cycles. I have written about those 16-year cycles previously.

The smartest investors set a limit from where they bought from the highest price their equity has reached as to where they will sell if it starts going down. Usually 10% is the rule of thumb, but it can be 5% or 20%. That is your choice.

All investors must learn that cash is a position or they are sure to lose their money.

Copyright 2005

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Congress recently passed another new law that is supposed to outlaw financial crime. Corporate officers will be sent to jail for “cooking the books” as it is called. Among other things it is taking the stockholders money and paying themselves huge bonuses for nonperformance. These guys are even worse than mutual fund managers who do the same thing – get paid big salaries yet continue to lose your money.

I can remember many years ago (I’ve got a few years on me) when they started building very fancy prisons with nice cells and tennis courts and nothing but a tiny fence around them. The story was these were being built for government officials who might get caught with their hand in the till and I have no reason to doubt it.

Today we have the new Sarbanes-Oxley Act that makes it a federal crime to commit financial fraud of various kinds. This new piece of legislation is going to be about as effective as the Brady Bill was in eliminating crimes committed with a gun. A crook is a crook is a crook. With or without a gun.

It seems that most of these high-priced executives that were convicted have been going to halfway houses. No bars, no fences, no cells. About 50% of inmates (?) in these “prisons” are those convicted of financial crimes. Most of the others are drug addicts and single moms. They can even get weekend passes to visit their palatial estates. Attorney General Ashcroft wants them to get the maximum sentences is a regular jail, but a group called the Sentencing Commission wants a lenient standard. I don’t know who is behind this group, but it seems to be in line with my motto of “follow the money”. The more money you steal the shorter the jail time will be.

We recently had Merrill Lynch and other major brokers fined $1.4 billion (yes, that’s a B) for their lying to stockholders by giving out false information generated by their “analysts”, read salesmen. Not one penny of this is going to the people who were cheated and none of the brokerage company executives will get any jail time.

Almost none of the individual company executives have been ordered to make even partial restitution to stockholders. Unless something is done this lenient policy will go into effect in the first week in January. If you have lost any money in the stock market these past 3 years I think it would be a good idea to let your Congressman know that you want those bums kept in jail until they give back as much as they have stolen or at least until they are as broke as their shareholders.

Many will agree that the punishment should fit the crime. Letting them serve their terms in halfway houses without repayment is not my idea of that. Maybe Washington should hear from you.

Al Thomas

Author of "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!"

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com