Investing in long-term financial vehicles give you the most gains but it also puts your funds at greater risk. There is much truth to the saying, “there is no gain if there is no risk”. Still you can reduce your chances of losing your hard earned money, by researching and taking time to understand what you are buying. Would you purchase a house you’ve only just seen on the outside? Both of these are serious investments and you need to arm yourself with the basic knowledge about the subjects.

So what are the differences you need to consider when investing in bonds, stocks or mutual funds?

What are bonds? When you are investing funds in bonds, you are technically lending your money to a borrower. Who can this be? Some of these are the U.S. government, a state, a local municipality or a big company like General Motors. All these institutions need money to expand, to fund a federal deficit or to finance new ventures. So they borrow funds by issuing bonds. The price you pay for a bond is know as its’ face value. The issuer promises to pay you back in a particular day, at a fixed rate of interest stated on the coupon itself. You are safely investing in bonds; these bonds give you a yearly income until the maturity date. When the bond matures, the borrower pays you back the principal plus interest. In most cases, investing in bonds is a minimal-risk free decision.

What about stocks? A share of stock is a certificate of ownership purchased by individuals who are investing or buying a proportional share of the business. The more stocks you buy, the bigger the share of profits you will get and the bigger your financial stake becomes. A stock’s value is affected by the financial situation of the company. Historical trends in stocks have shown that their value rises over time, although there are no sure guarantees. Also with stocks the only assured return is if it appreciates on the open market. And while it is true that there are companies that give their stockholders dividends, they are not obligated to do so.

What are mutual funds? In this financial scenario, you join a group of investors in investing your funds to buy stocks, bonds, or anything else your fund manager decides is worthwhile. If you do sustain losses, these losses are subtracted from the fund’s capital gains before the money is distributed to you the shareholder. The fund won’t pass out capital gains to shareholders until it has at least earned more in profits than it had lost.

Remember it pays to do research before investing.

Timothy Gorman is a successful Webmaster and publisher of Debt-Relief-Solutions.com. He provides more debt relief, consolidation and financial planning advice that you can research in your pajamas on his website.

On Monday, November 25, 2000 Investor’s Business Daily listed on page B1 the Top 25 Growth Mutual Funds for the last 36 months along with their performance for the year 2000 to date. Only four showed a profit this year of 21% and the other three had increases of 12%, 5%, and 5%. Fifteen had loss of from 10% to 28% and the other 6 were down slightly.

In the column next to them there is a list of Top 25 Growth Funds for the past 3 months for the year 2000 to date. Only 2 had increases in price for the year 2000, 4 were even and all the rest are showing losses for the year.

Now pay attention and think about this next sentence. Not one mutual fund appears in both lists.

What is the significance of this? It very simply tells you that buy and hold is NOT the way to make money with mutual funds.

I have been preaching for years to buy only no-load mutual funds and hold them only as long as they are going up. When they stop going up you sell them (paying no commission) and find another fund that is going up as the place to have your money. In this current bear market the latter is hard to find so what do you do? Put your money in a money market account and don’t worry about the market going down and dragging your investment with it. Protect your capital!

Don’t throw up your hands and say I can’t do that because my broker says to "buy and hold - the market always comes back". It is not his money. It is yours. You must be the one to initiate the action to protect your capital. Brokers are not taught how to do this. I know - I used to own a brokerage company.

Brokers have been smart enough to learn, but taught all the wrong things when it comes to investing money. They claim you can’t "time the market". WRONG again. They never encourage you to place stop-loss orders so you won’t lose all your money when you buy a new stock or fund and they never encourage you to use a trailing stop to protect the profits you have made.

I know there are people reading this column who have had stocks that have doubled, tripled, even more and now have that same stock that is now selling for less than they bought it.. Where was your broker when all this was happening? If he is so smart why didn’t he tell you to sell at the top? This also applies to mutual funds.

What I am trying to get across is the simple message that you cannot buy and hold. The "secret" every knowledgeable investor knows is to protect his capital first and then to protect his profits second.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

In a previously written article, we expanded the use of the term “Trading Baskets” to include stocks from different sectors or industries. Now I want to share with you an approach to day trading or swing trading that I had some success with back in the wild and woolly, pinnacle days of day trading that may still work today. Unfortunately, this basket of stocks was dubbed “The Crapolilo”, a name it just could not shake. You’ll see why.

The crucial element that traders are looking for in any stock, which makes it a good day trade or swing trade, is movement or momentum. There are any numbers of things that can cause movement in a stock. Usually it is news of some sort, either positive or negative. It doesn’t really matter. You are only looking for movement, up or down. However, for this particular strategy we are looking for positive news. Keep in mind that it is not your job as a trader to totally understand why or what is causing the movement in a stock, beyond what it takes to make a quick profit.

If you spend enough time glued to a computer monitor with CNBC blaring in the background and are looking for a stock to make a quick buck on, sooner or later you will realize that there are some familiar names that just keep popping up over and over again. From these repeating names you may want to consider building your own Crapolio.

Start by tracking the stocks that keep coming up over and over again. In this scenario the stocks for which we are looking usually play out the same way every time one of the stocks has news of some sort. Traders will jump on the stock, causing a mad scramble to get in on the move, and the stock will run up in price for a nice gain. The challenge is to be as early as possible on the play, get into the money (profitable), and get out before the momentum turns and the stock retreats. Rest assured, they will retreat because that is one thing all of the stocks we are looking for have in common; they hardly ever hold their gains. If you’re late to get in and even later to get out, you won’t make a dime and will maybe even lose money. It is this phenomenon that the now famous Floyd’s 4-Gets are based upon: Get In, Get Profit, Get Out and Get Away!

So here’s what I did, but remember that this strategy may or may not be right for you. I set aside a percentage of my trading capital for a basket of stocks that became known as “The Crapolio”. I picked a large number of the stocks I had been tracking, low cost stocks under $5-$10 for the most part, but not always. I charted every one of them as far back as I could, looking for the ones that were most likely to continue to repeat the scenario. I came up with what I thought was a recent low that was going to hold for some time; and I bought half the normal lot of shares I usually traded. (See link below to DTM: Decisive Trade Management and Trading Stops for lot sizes.) Then I waited.

The theory is that sooner or later these stocks will once again have some sort of news event that will move them to the upside. As soon as that news hit, I would be in an excellent position having already bought the stock at a recent low. I would then try to buy an additional half lot or a full lot once the new news event hit the street. Overall, I would be in the shares much earlier on average and be able to take advantage of the move and sell for a profit into the momentum. Being in the stock gave me the ability to lock in a nice profit without having to scramble to get in and scramble to sell before the momentum ran out.

Often, I would be in the stock and the news would hit over night, causing the stock to gap up significantly at the market opening in the morning.

However, this is not called “The Crapolio” without a reason. High quality stocks do not usually behave this way to the same degree. Those that do are much more expensive, usually $35 or more, making it cost prohibitive for all but the wealthiest traders to use this plan.

As previously mentioned, most, if not all, of these stocks were under $10 and for a reason. These were not high quality stocks; in fact, the opposite was the case. Most were high-risk speculative tech stocks or bio-techs. Many were dot-coms; remember this was in the hay-days of the dot-com boom. As we all know now, there were a lot more dot-bombs than there were successes.

Obviously, this was my own version of Swing Trading.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THESE WERE "NOT" BROKEN DAYTRADES. Each stock was chosen, charted and watched over a period of time before it was added to “The Crapolio”.

I believe this strategy could still work today. However, it is to be considered extremely risky and should only be used with money you can afford to lose.

When trading this or any day trading strategy one should know and use DTM: Decisive Trade Management (see story at http://www.traderaide.com/index.html).

Happy trading!

No permission is needed to reproduce an unedited copy of this article as long the About The Author tag is left in tact and included. We do request that we be informed of where it is posted and reciprocal links will be considered. Email floyd@sbmag.org.

Floyd Snyder has been trading and investing in the stock market for three decades. He was on the forefront of the day trading craze that swept the nation back in the late 1990’s both as a trader and as the moderator of one of the Internet’s largest real time trading rooms. He is the owner of http://www.TraderAide.com, Strictly Business Magazine at http://www.sbmag.org

Mutual funds by definition are a mixed bag of stocks, bonds and a little cash. Their price per share is the NAV, Net Asset Value of the total amount of money in the mutual fund divided by the number of shares. They seek to be fully invested at all times.

The fund manager determines which stocks and bonds to buy and sell in order to give the greatest return to his shareholders. He is considered to be an expert in choosing stocks for appreciation of value and should be expected to give a better than average return. That’s why he draws down a six-figure income.

You are encouraged to pick a fund that has your goal in mind. Is it considered conservative, speculative, income oriented, growth or some other category? Wouldn’t you say one of the principle reasons was to have the greatest return on your money? Do you want an average return or do you want an above average return?

What is average? There is an index which you hear about on the news every day called the S&P500. Because it is composed of 500 different stocks it is broadly representative of the market as a whole and therefore called a market average or index. You certainly would want a fund that is doing better than average.

You are encouraged to read the prospectus. Did you realize that the day it is printed much of the information in it is over a year old? It is written for the regulators in Washington, not for investors. It is worthless. Throw it away.

There are load funds that charge a commission and no-load funds that do not charge commission. There is no proof that paying a commission will provide you with a better return. Buy your no-load funds direct from the fund or through a discount broker.

You are told to find a good fund manager. Various money magazines list them. Investor’s Business Daily does a feature story on different fund managers several times each week. Check to see if his fund is outperforming the S&P during the last 12 months. There are very few fund managers who have a consistent record and even the best of them gets cold once in a while and has a losing streak. You want your money returning at maximum at all times so you can’t stay with one manager when he is running cold. Change funds.

One of the Wall Street myths is that you should put your money into a "good" fund and let it stay there for years. This is promoted because mutual fund managers are compensated by the amount of money they have in the fund and not for performance of the fund.

So how do you pick a fund? Very simple. It must outperform the S&P500 Index. Any mutual fund manager who cannot beat a market average should not be holding your money. Check out your funds today.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

There is so much involved in developing peak performance, that I recommend that all traders have a business plan. We recommend that the business plan cover all of the following areas.

• Your vision.

• Your purpose.

• Your objectives.

• A thorough self-assessment of your strengths and weakness, based upon real trading logs that you collect (if you haven’t done so already).

• A thorough assessment of the big picture of the fundamentals.

• A complete understanding of your beliefs about the market.

• Procedures for getting empowering beliefs and mental states behind you.

• A documentation of your research procedure for developing new systems and determining how to analyze their effectiveness.

• Your procedures for developing and maintaining discipline.

• Your budget and cashflow systems.

• Other necessary systems such as marketing, back office record keeping, etc.

• Your worst case contingency plan.

• System 1 – which is compatible with the big picture.

• System 2 – which is also compatible with the big picture.

• System 3 – which might come into play should the big picture change.

If you have all of those things, then you have a chance of doing well. But this means that your business plan becomes a tool for you to continually use to improve yourself and your trading. All of these topics were covered in some detail in our teleconference on business planning – and you can now get that series on CDs – including some sample plans that I critiqued during the last session.

You will notice that at the top of the list I include "vision." One of the keys to real success in trading is commitment. Before I coach a trader, I look for commitment. Those who are not committed to do what it takes, usually commit financial suicide when they try to be full time traders. Now, I have no idea how to give people commitment. It’s more like something they are born with – not something I can coach.

However, I do have some clues to how you can develop it in yourself. The key to doing so is to develop your vision and purpose. Your vision is your dream life. What do you really want to accomplish, be, and have in your life to know that you’ve done your best? What is your dream life? I’d write this out in detail.

And you also want the purpose behind the dream life. What are the "whys" in your life? This is what gives it the real motivation and commitment. Why do you want the things you want? Write down as many whys as possible. You’ll know you have it correct when you are so excited about your dream life that you must do something right now.

So get started this week with just this one aspect of developing your business plan for trading or investing…start by writing out your vision.

In the unique arena of professional trading coaches and consultants, Van K. Tharp stands out as an international leader in the industry. Helping others become the best trader or investor that they can be has been Tharp’s mission since 1982. Dr. Tharp offers very unique learning strategies, and his techniques for producing great traders are some of the most effective in the field. Over the years Dr. Tharp has helped people overcome problems in areas of system development and trading psychology, and success related issues such as self-sabotage.

Dr. Tharp is the author of three acclaimed books published by McGraw Hill; the New York Times Bestseller, Safe Strategies for Financial Freedom, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, and Financial Freedom Through Electronic Day Trading.

He is the founder and president of the Van Tharp Institute, dedicated to offering high quality education products and services for traders and investors around the globe. Learn more and register for his free weekly email newsletter at http://www.vantharp.com

When we go to the circus we see a trapeze artist working on a high wire or swing either alone or with other athletes. They know what they are doing because of constant practice, but every once in a while there can be a mistake, even a small one that can cause one of them to fall. The result is death or serious injury when they hit the ground.

When you look below them you will see a net. Thank goodness. No one wants to see them get hurt. As expert as they are they take precautions. In almost every profession or athletic event there is some kind of safety net available and this is true in the stock market for all investors. There is never any reason for investments to fall to the point the investor is hurt. Is there a net that breaks that fall and keeps the investor from losing all or part of his money? Yes there is.

It is called a Stop Loss Order. Brokers don’t like them and never recommend them because it means he must watch your account and the average broker has too many customers to do that. However, you can instruct him to place an Open Stop Loss Order that means it is automatically in every day protecting your shares from loss. If you are not allowed to place this kind of order you should move your account to another brokerage house. They obviously don’t care about protecting your money.

Let me give you an example. Suppose that last year you bought Cisco Systems (CSCO) at $50 per share. The first question to ask yourself is how much am I going to risk in case this stock goes down instead of up? You put up $5,000 and bought 100 shares. How much are you willing to risk? $500. $1,000. More? Well, today it is about $15 so if you did not have a loss protection you would be out $3,500 and that is too much. The Stop Loss Order is your Safety Net! If you don’t have one you can be seriously hurt. One of the basic rules is never to lose more than 10%. Look at what you own to see if you would have more money today if you had placed a Stop Loss Order just below the highest closing price for your stocks. I know you would be money ahead.

There are literally thousands of stocks that have lost 80% and 90% of their value. For those poor people (pun intended) who did not have a safety net they are badly hurt and some are just about dead. Sorry, folks, it did not have to happen.

I don’t care what you own. Now you should immediately look at everything in your portfolio and decide where you need to place those stops. If you don’t put a net in place you could be hurt.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

You remember the story about the frog that was put into a pot of cold water on the stove. He was not concerned. Someone lit the burner and the water began getting warm, the frog was very comfortable and as the water became warmer he was so relaxed and complacent that he fell asleep – never to awaken.

Mr. Frog reminds me of today’s stock market investors and that includes all folks with IRAs, 401Ks and the like. Stocks have been slowly rising for the past year and a half (the water is becoming warmer and warmer) and no one is paying any attention to his investment positions. The market is becoming overheated and many investors are about to become boiled. Too many are swimming fat and happy in the increasing warmth with no thought of exit.

Currently the long term market trend is up so complacency reigns supreme. It is doing exactly the same as in 2000. When 2002 ended we had a surplus of boiled frogs. A smart frog will not be lulled to sleep and will have a plan to jump out of the pot. A frog without a plan plans to be frog soup.

There are many ways for the frog to escape and there are many ways for investors to retain their profits or at least not lose their money the next time the market heads down. It will if past performance is any guide to futures results. Any plan to jump out is better than no plan at all.

Whether you own stocks, mutual funds or ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) you can set a limit as to how much you are willing to lose from this point (that’s now, today). Any fool (frog) can buy, but it is the wise man (frog) who knows how to sell (escape the pot).

If you want to have money for retirement you must protect your capital from loss with a risk management strategy. First protect your principle and then protect the profits you have made on the recent stock market advance. It is not difficult to do.

With stocks and ETFs you can place an Open Stop Loss Order with your broker or financial planner. He won’t like this, but it is your money not his. Don’t let him talk you out of it. For regular mutual funds you must have a mental stop and when that price is hit you call your broker (he won’t call you) or the fund directly to tell them to transfer your funds to a Money Market account. Cash is a position.

If you are not familiar with stop loss orders you can find books in your library and there are hundreds of articles on the Internet. See some of my previous articles on my web site.

The water is heating up. Don’t fall asleep and become a poor frog.

Al Thomas’ best selling book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter and receive his market letter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know. Copyright 2005

We have two candidates for president that have really different ideas on how to make the economy grow.

Bush believes in the entrepreneurial approach. People should be allowed to invest in themselves. He even wants to let people have some of the 15% that now goes to the Social Security "trust fund". Folks, there ain’t no such thing. All the money the government takes out of your paycheck goes into the general fund and the pols spend it as they choose for "your best interest" provided it coincides with theirs. Am I being too cynical?

Gore believes the government should take care everything and everyone. The more dependency of the people on the government the better because the dependents will look to him for what they need and keep him in office. Forty percent of the people in this country pay no taxes at all.

But what is the important thing that will make the stock market continue to go up? Is Bush better than Gore for the market? Or visa versa? Is a Democrat better than a Republican for the stock market? Or visa versa?

Historically the market finishes the year up 14% when the incumbent party prevails. The Dow goes down 3% when the parties change in the White House. It would seem Mr. Gore would be a better bet. But little George has proposed a plan that would give wage earners the right to put 16% of their payroll taxes into a private investment account. This would certainly fuel the stock market.

Who takes care of those who do a poor job of investing and lose all their money? We are already taking care of them. Did you know the return on investment for Social Security is about 2 1/2%? A money market fund earns twice that. Yes, there will be some who do lose that small personal investment account; however, there will be many more who do well and will have a better lifestyle for their personal efforts. There will be another bear market and all the sheep will be sheared.

Right now the economy is so strong that Mr. Greenspan is doing his best to slow it down. And we are in a strong world economy. Even Germany and France have finally learned that the way to stimulate their country’s growth is to lower taxes. It has been an expensive lesson for them. Lower taxes mean more money for people to spend and invest, both of which stimulate the economy. Democrats needn’t worry that there will be less spending if they should lose the White House as the Republicans know how to spend as well as they do. Cynical again, huh?

When it comes right down to which man will do better or worse for the stock market it is a toss-up. The difference is made in Congress, not in the White House. The president tries to steer the Congress to act on his beliefs. One of the things few people remember - it is best to have opposing views between the executive and legislative branches of government. A Democratic president is balanced off by a Republican Congress. And visa versa.

We’ll just have to wait to see what this next election brings.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Hello Inflation, it has been awhile, I see you on your way back again. Inflation? What inflation? Oh things like; Energy, diesel fuel, Aviation Fuel, Gasoline, Natural Gas, Milk, Wheat, Corn, Beef, Poultry, Hogs, Soy Beans, Building materials, paper, housing, Auto Prices, Health Care, Insurance, etc. You know the basics. Also considering the wholesale inflation, which comes from fuel costs being passed on, government regulations infringing on productivity and additional fees and fines to replace the taxes and incentives. When wholesale prices go up, those are passed onto the consumer.

How do we know all this? This is not a guess by any means. We have studied these issues for quite a while. Here is why we think this. Well as far as agriculture, we know from the droughts in the major farming regions and we can tell by the commodities market. We have seen the high temperatures and lack of water with Wheat and Corn in ID, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS. In other markets floods have hurt some crops. Also drought hurting the growing of feed for Cattle, meaning beef prices will go up. Canada MAD COW now our Mad Cow problem, problems with Japan’s increased tariffs on beef. Hogs and Beef in KS cannot get the water they need. Also in farming we have seen areas where the Sierra Club is suing so many projects to stop or slow building of new reservoirs in NM, ID, CO, AZ, NV, OR, CA. Also the specialty crops are running low and not enough to meet demand, things like berries (see bear lake issues) and issues in Winnepeg and BC, grapes (2 buck chuck run supplies low), etc as well as issues with depleted soil in Central Valley CA, Desert Farmers along the AZ and CA border cannot use that amount of water since CA and AZ will need it for new housing areas, golf courses and other uses (see the Colorado river situation) Farmers VS Developers and housing in PHX, Tucson, Las Vegas, San Diego, San Bernardino, Riverside, many are predicting a bubble burst, we have seen issues in the REITs which was a little bit of a shake up.

Natural Gas from the lack of new wells being drilled, for instance off the coast of Maine and the Gulf. Lack of ability to gear up in infrastructure fast enough to supply this winter’s need even though it should be a relatively non-violent winter as far as that goes-however few Hurricanes on West Coast last year showed us a lowered Jet Stream and lower latitude airflows, La Nina comes next and that means drought continued and water prices will go up and many business which use water will be worried and charge more too for their services. I have also been studying the EU droughts and heat and the issues with their exports meaning supply will not equal demand. Humanitarian needs are at issue as well. Meanwhile the Super Crops are being blocked by EU and WTO and much of those crops may not be able to be used in all markets. Some really bad deals here for humanity. Fruit in FL and the everglades issues are getting to be a bigger deal.

Dairy Farmers in ID are up 12% but they want more money and the National Dairy Association is also pushing forward. Increased demand is putting the dairy farmers feeling that they can charge more and will soon need to upgrade. The fires in ID, MT are using up much water supplies very early and fire season has another 2.5 months left. Also CO, NM, WY not out of the season yet. What about the threat of Bird Flu?

With Building materials we are seeing increased government regulation, timber tariffs on imported from Canada. Paper industry is in trouble and the replanted forests and forest farms are usually fast growing trees good for paper, not building grade timber. Housing spikes caused this, many areas growing fast.

Oil prices up due to manipulations in supply, Middle East issues, China coming on strong with needs of her own, Military needs effecting supply and demand issues, International Terrorists screwing with infrastructures, South American trade war paybacks, oil pipelines too few, Nimby-ism slowing output and inflows while the demand has increased, Airline fuel down and therefore price has too increase to pay for the direct cost loads. Our growth and consumerism has outpaced our supply and infrastructures. With energy the Blackout of 2003, rolling CA issues, generation plants being shut down, slowness of building new Nuclear Power Plants, issues in OR along the major Columbia River with Bonneville Power, issues with CA and SMUD, issues with upgrades needed in Coal Plants to meet EPA upgrades also same problems in VA, NC, SC, and the Tennessee River Valley Authority. Pipeline break in AZ and Phoenix they were paying nearly $2.00 per gallon, but now in CA they are at $2.65 per gallon. Sabotage in Iraq screws up supply for worldwide market. We are seeing OPEC moving forward to keep prices high, China coming online with needs, world demand is going up, takes too long to ramp up our own production and few companies wish too, for fear of dropping of prices too quickly, meanwhile we are seeing $2.46 gasoline on West Coast and $1.90 in San Antonio, no one expects these prices to come down, recessions follow high fuel prices by 6 months? So these are all issues and everything we buy has these high costs figured in. Construction, farming, transportation. Some school districts complaining about cost of buses and kids hurting budgets and at the same time increased prices mean more monies to state coffers which charge percentages of fuel prices as tax.

This article is in no way a doom and gloom showing, because I do see increased economic sunshine in many markets, but not all, those which have the burdens of drought, fires, shortages and manufacturing are going to see some more tough times. When energy goes up, some businesses running redline on low margins with lots of competition will see harder times and layoffs in the near future, while other sectors will be continuing the recovery.

These companies must raise prices, nearly all airlines have announced even additional higher fares this week, 14 of the largest trucking companies; the ones which haul the food, building materials, cars to dealerships and everything on every shelf in America. Railroad is increasing rates too. And Independent truck drivers holding on by a thread with insurance costs up too. We are also not going to be able to release the Military reserves in such uncertain times. So Inflation, there she blows and meanwhile interest rates will increase and money flows continue offshore.

What is of concern is that without increased wages, higher percentages of consumer incomes will be spent on food, gas, energy and other artificially inflated or supply and demand driven goods and services, yes that includes many sectors.

Now is a very important time in our nations history and in the business cycles at hand. We will get through this as it also hits other nations who sell to us, the trick is to come out of this present period with after burners blazing and set a course to the future prosperity and into the annals of destiny. Which we may write thru our human spirit and will.

"Lance Winslow" - Online Think Tank forum board. If you have innovative thoughts and unique perspectives, come think with Lance in the Online Think Tank and solve the problems of the World; www.WorldThinkTank.net/

During the day I watch CNBC-TV, the stock market channel. Fortunately, I keep the sound muted or I would be hollering at the dumb "experts" being interviewed. The experts seem to know all about the market except they don’t know how to protect their capital.

Every few minutes there is a chart in bright yellow of some stock showing its price performance during the past year. Lately it seems that most of the stocks have lost from 50% to 80 or 90% of their value.

Oh yes, this beauty did go up from 20 to 120, but is now back to 20 or some number very close to erasing almost all of last years profits, many going to a loss. The commentators give a nice running explanation of the "reasons" this stock did what it did. All hindsight and we know hindsight is 20/20.

Not once have I heard one these mavens ever suggest that a trailing stop would have sold out the stockowner at a nice profit within 10 or 20% of the top of the move. Microsoft went to $120 and proceeded to lose 50% of its value, dropping to $60. If you had had a distant trailing stop you might have been sold out about $90 or better. If you are still in love with MSFT you may now buy many more shares than you had before. Make sense?

There is a correct way to use stops, but the best is a mechanical method. Just set an amount you are willing to give back. Some traders recommend an 8% stop, others 15% to 20% of the low of the previous week placed with your brokerage firm each Monday morning as a Good-Til-Cancelled sell order. There is also the simple close below the 20-day moving average computed weekly. And many others. If you care anything about your money you might want to do some study to see the type of stop you might wish to employ to protect your capital.

Most professional traders, and I know most people are not professional enough to do this, will place their sell stops below what they consider to be critical support. This is a matter of interpretation and requires experience. I can almost guarantee your broker doesn’t know how to do this so you should adopt one of the mechanical methods. When your stock or mutual fund is making that loud swishing noise going down the porcelain container your broker always comes up with the sage advice, "You are in for the long term" or "The market always comes back". In your lifetime?

Take a look at some of the dogs you are carrying in your portfolio right now. Figure out what would have happened if you had put in a trailing stop. My experience of trading for more than 30years has shown that if you had been stopped out that within 60 days that stock will be trading lower than your sell price about 80% of the time.

The first rule of investing is to protect your capital. Use stops.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005