Economists know more about how the fragments of society work than anyone. In school they are taught to break down the economy into its tiniest parts and to quantify each minutiae so it can become part of a formula. Once done those econometric formulas should become a viable equation to predict how the total economy will react when a change occurs to any part of the formula.

Since economists know all this I must ask if these formulas are so good at predicting the economy why aren’t all economists rich?

They aren’t. And I will give you some clues why.

The more complicated a formula the less likely it is to work. When the economy is not reacting the way an economist thinks it should based on his formula he will tell you that one part of his equation is not acting "normally", whatever that is. Another thing you will find is there is no Holy Grail formula. Each one of these PhDs has tweaked the basic one and either added or subtracted parts or maybe changed the weighting of certain parts. If you ask 1,000 economists for an answer to what will happen and why you will receive 1,000 different reasons. That doesn’t mean they are all wrong. It does mean there is no one right way to arrive at a correct prediction. The law of averages will have many with a valid answer even if their reasoning is wrong. Sometimes pure luck is enough.

When I was a floor trader there were a thousand guys trading and each one had a different method to determine if the market was going up or down. One wanted to buy. Another thought the market was headed lower and wanted to sell. At that moment you realize that there is a 50/50 chance one of them is correct. Every time an economist makes a prediction you and I could be a winner or loser.

There are some very smart economists. Not too many. Once in a while one of the young ones come up with an idea that all the others eventually adopt such as the Laffer Curve which we will not explore here. Until an economist has gone through a major bull and bear market cycle you would not want to live or die with his predictions.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

As I said in Part I everyone in the insane asylum looks normal, but at least the doctors are sane. Unfortunately, in the insane asylum known as the stock market all the doctors (brokers) are also insane.

The doctors in the insane asylum went to medical school to learn how to treat the patients so the could get well. On Wall Street you go to the doctor (broker) who is supposed to help you become financially well, maybe wealthy. Almost none of these Wall Street experts ever learned their profession. They have all been taught the three great prescriptions that make no sense at all: Do Your Research, Buy and Hold and Dollar Cost Averaging. This is what the brokerage houses teach.

As I said previously research is worthless, as it will not tell you if a stock is going to go up. Buy and Hold is taught the wrong way. It is OK to Buy and Hold as long as the stock is going up, but not when it goes down. No broker is taught how to protect a customer’s money.

When I was a floor trader I learned in a hurry not to hold on to something that was losing money. The very simple prescription for this is called a Stop Loss Order. Brokers hate them and will discourage you from entering them. Why? Because it means he will have to watch your account because if a stop order is not properly and timely executed he must pay it out of his pocket.

Brokerage houses do not teach brokers how to use this simple method to protect capital. The house does not want to become known that it will sell a company’s stock when it turns weak. The brokerage company makes more in good will from the poor performing company than they do in commissions from you because if they ever encourage selling it means they will not get a chance to handle an Initial Public Offering (IPO) for that company. Suppose they did have a stop protection policy for customers and they then had an IPO that came out at $30 per share, but instead of going up it went down. The customers would not lose more than $3 or $4 per share because of their protective stops, but the house would then be stuck with all the unsold stock. It is OK for you to have this money-losing dog, but they sure don’t want it in their inventory. You can see how logical this is, but you won’t hear it from a broker. Stop orders are not insane.

The insane conventional wisdom that both brokers and customers have been taught cannot remain once it is exposed to truth.

You must take the initiative with the stocks you own to protect yourself from loss of capital. If your broker argues with you there is one solution - fire him and find a good broker who will protect your money. Just because he has learned an insane system doesn’t mean you have to be nuts too.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Question: How does it get better when it gets worse?

Last week we had a jobs report from Washington that there were fewer jobs created than they had anticipated, but the stock market took that as good news and the DOW had a strong rally. WOW! The bad news somehow turned into good news because the unemployment rate dropped one tenth of one percent.

Wait a minute. We had fewer employed yet the unemployment rate went down. How can that be? It seems that if you have been out of work for a while and your unemployment benefits have run out and you have become so discouraged you are no longer looking for work you are not counted as unemployed. You should read that sentence again. This is government statistics to make you think that black is white.

It is pointed out that many in that category have gone into business for themselves so they don’t count – as they should not. Remember that people work to provide income and most folks work for other folks. Usually new businesses take about 18 months to get to break even so these entrepreneurs must eat of their savings until new purchasing power is realized. (I know. I’ve been there.) Unfortunately, 80% of new businesses fail within the first 5 years. (I’ve been there too.)

It is amazing that the stock market can find enough new money to propel it higher. Where is all this cash coming from? You can thank Sir Alan Greenspan, head of the Federal Reserve. He has been flooding the economy with cash so banks will have cheap money to make loans to businesses yet when I look at the trend of Commercial Bank Loans for the past 2 years they have been steadily declining. Banks want to loan, but businesses don’t want to increase their borrowing for expansion. No expansion, no new jobs created.

Why don’t the businesses want to buy new machinery to expand their production and hire new people? Because they have excess production capacity now. According to business surveys most companies are only running their plants at 75% of capacity. When you have 100 machines of which only 75 are working why would anyone buy more to produce nothing?

Yet the stock market keeps going up. Why? Investors believe, rightly or wrongly, that there is light at the end of the tunnel. Things will get better. They think world buying will pick up and capacity utilization will increase to the point more machines and workers will be hired. The market is going up on anticipation.

Now you’ve got it. The bad news is really good news. And the stock market always comes back.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Four blind men were asked to give a description of an elephant. They had not seen one or ever encountered such a beast.

One grabbed hold of its tail. Another put his arms around a leg. The third gripped its trunk and the fourth walked into the side. The description given by each one was correct and accurate except it did not describe the elephant’s true form. Each man was right and each man was wrong.

We now have some equally blind men trying to describe what is happening in our economy and the stock market - economists, brokers, bankers and financial planners.

The economists say that because of the interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the huge inflow of cash that the economy will recover in a short time. The bankers opine that all that money that the banks are allowed to loan is not being given to their old customers and they definitely don’t want to make new loans to new and unknown companies. The brokers say you are in for the long haul and don’t worry the market always comes back. The financial planners have a new plan to diversify your holdings by shifting your money around to take advantage of this current market.

They are all right and they are all wrong. You cannot explain the overall economy with a single solution. We have a complex mix with new ingredients coming to our awareness each day.

To get a better look at this elephant you must stand back not only in distance but in time as well. Ask this question: Where is the country now economically in comparison to September 10 before the terrorist attack? At that time the stock market was going down and we were in a recession. Then the market crashed and the recession was officially declared. The stock market has climbed back up to where it was September 10 and the economists are telling us that the recession may be over.

However, when I look at this elephant it still looks like the same elephant. The basic portions of the economy are still slow and slowing. Unemployment is rising. The banks are not loaning money even though they have it. Venture capitalists are not putting money in new companies. Manufacturing capacity has not come back. We have weaker housing because of higher interest rates and the consumer is spending like he used to. Deflation has reared its ugly head. Most of the new spending has been on counter terrorism that is not productive and taxes have not been reduced so the consumer can have more spendable cash. And a lot more.

The stock market rally has been in anticipation of greater corporate profits that could be a long way off.

Now is the time to be wary of whom you listen to before you invest or make any changes in your investments. The elephant being described to you may not look like that at all.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Just 30 years ago the stock market was a shadow of what it is today. There were many fewer shareholders and the daily volume was a fraction of what it is at present. No one thought you would every be able to trade a billion or more shares in one day. Of course that was in the old days when they had tickers and the word digital was something you did with your fingers.

Now we have world markets. There seems to be a stock exchange in almost every country. Did you know there is a stock exchange (of sorts) in Baghdad? I have not heard if they are back in business now that the war is over.

It is kind of amazing that with all these new traders and with all the varied stocks in every part of the globe that market mechanics would have changed. They have not.

As a technical analyst and trader (I was an exchange member and floor trader for 17 years) I still see the same trading patterns I saw 30 years ago. Wouldn’t you think with this tremendous expansion that something would be different? It isn’t. Why?

The reason is very simple. People don’t change. The basics of the market – fear and greed – still dominate. Emotions have not differed in thousands of years. As far back as recorded history people have reacted in almost the same way.

The emotions of traders can be plotted and you can see it in the charts that are printed out each day to show the price action of the market. Once an upward trend sets in people begin to buy, putting the market higher attracting more buyers until the greater fool application has run its course.

In the years I have been trading I have seen many new technical indicators. When you think about it almost all of them are based on the emotions of the mass of investors, even such simple indicators as moving averages. As a continuing student of the market I have studied and have used many of them. I don’t know any successful investor who does not use them.

A broker or financial planner who does know understand and use these indicators is doomed to failure. If anyone in the financial field every says they don’t work you can be sure he is a loser because he has not taken the time to learn his trade. He is worse than a carpenter who does not know how to use a hammer and saw.

A good technician can go to any exchange in the world, not know the language and still make money.

Stock charts are like EKGs that doctors read to see how your heart is doing. Some doctors can understand them and other have not learned.

The basic principles of trading have not changed over the years even though the market is many times larger than it was because people have not changed. Whether you invest on your local exchange or globally everything remains the same.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

The single most expensive stock market trades are those made with emotions, but, of course, you are not an emotional trader are you?

Before you bought that stock, mutual fund or Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) you did your research to be sure that what you were buying would return a good profit over the long haul. You bought it and over time you look at it less and less.

Ask yourself: when you plunked down your hard earned money did you have any idea where you would sell it or where you might exit the trade should the stock go down instead of up? And suppose it has gone up have you made any plans to protect those profits?

There were many geniuses in 1999 who bought a tech stock at $20 and saw it run to $200 only to come back down to $2. Those who had an exit strategy probably sold out as it turned over and dropped like a rock. They kept most of their profits as well as their original investment.

What kept those BuyNholders in? It was emotion. They fell in love with the stock because they “knew” it was worth more and would “come back up”.

Investing is not an “I hope, I hope” business, but it is a business. Never become emotionally attached to anything you buy. If you were in the buggy whip business in 1900 and saw the automobile putting the horse out to pasture you easily knew it was time to sell out. That also applies to any investment you make in the stock market.

Once each month you should be checking to see if your various stocks are advancing as planned. Forget all those pretty research reports your broker sent you. Burn them. Now you must not care anything about that company. What you care about now is your money. As long as the stock price is advancing you may continue your love affair, but when it starts down it is time for a divorce. Time to leave before the damage gets worse.

This is where emotion becomes expensive. If you just bought it your ties are strong and you know if you sell you will have a loss. Never fall for that old broker’s adage that you don’t have a loss until you sell. Anyone who believes that will be eating cat food at retirement.

When you bought that new car you knew as soon as you drove it off the lot it would be worth 20% less than you paid for it. Twenty percent is a lot and more than most folks should be willing to risk when investing. Forget “the long haul” as you don’t want to take the 40% losses that many investors did in 2000.

Usually a good rule of thumb is 10%. When you drive that stock off the exchange floor your risk should be limited. You decide how much you are willing to lose if it goes down instead of up and as it goes up carry that risk percentage along to lock in your profit.

If you do sell never look back. Fagedaboudit! In 80% of those sales when you do look back six months later you will see you are way ahead in the money game.

Do not allow an emotional attachment to keep you in any stock or fund. It will drain you both mentally and financially.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Every broker and financial planner will tell you that you cannot time the stock market. I saw John Bogle, the great seer of Vanguard, on CNBC saying it can’t be done. Of course, it is easy to understand why he and every other mutual fund manager would say that as they would have a problem managing huge inflows and outflows of money and he was buying and holding during the 18-year bull from 1982 to 2000.

Every successful hedge fund managers knows that Buy and Hold is death for capital investment. Hedge fund managers are different than regular mutual fund managers in that they only get paid when they make a profit for their investors. Wouldn’t it be refreshing if we could have that happen for the mutual funds you own. Last year 90% of all stock mutual funds lost money and the average fund manager made about $300,000.

To be invested in a hedge fund you must be a “qualified investor”. That means you need to show an income of $200,000 a year for the last 2 years and have a net worth of $1,000,000. It is the old story of the rich get richer. The reason is simple. They don’t put money with money mangers who can’t manage money. Hedge fund managers must make profits or starve. The Securities and Exchange Commission should allow this type of investment for small investors, but they don’t. Why don’t you write them a letter and ask ‘why’?

To protect your cash in your IRA, 401K, SEP, trust or just plain stock account you can learn to use market timing. There is one very simple timing method that anyone can master and you don’t have to be a mathematical genius or even the least bit market savvy to do it.

From 1950 to the year 2000 the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10,534 points. That is a pretty long time period so it is a very good sample. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac (2002 edition) a $10,000 investment using only the S&P500 Index your account would have increased by $11,408 if you had been invested just during May through October. Pretty shabby. However, if you were invested only from November through April that same $10,000 would have gained $314,056. Cowabunga! Who says you can’t time the market?

If you were invested in a broad market index fund of any kind and switched to a money market during the Spring and Summer periods and been fully invested during the Fall and Winter you could be one of those qualified investors. You could have made an extra 700%. That’s real money. And there are better timing models.

Anyone can do this, but brokers tell you you have to be fully invested all the time. Nonsense. They are worried you might take your money out. Cash is a position. They will tell you it is too simplistic, but that is the beauty of it. Simple is always better.

This is the easiest of all timing models I know and it works. Take some time to study it. It can only increase your net worth. And you will sleep better.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

There is a current movie entitled “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”. It is about a man who has had a painful love affair and will do anything to rid his mind of those pain thoughts of a former love. He sees an advertisement that offers just such a service. It seems his former lover has the exact thoughts and she goes through the same treatment. Guess what? They meet again, do not recognize each other, and fall in love again.

Does any of this sound familiar?

May I gently remind you of what happened to your stock portfolio in 2000 to 2003? Please. Don’t shoot the messenger. You fell in love with the stocks or mutual funds in your 401K and became wildly emotional about all the money your were making and how you thought about buying one of those islands in the Bahamas for early retirement. Then came the road crunching detour and you are left with a broken down portfolio by the side of the road.

Along came a shiny red tow truck and a mechanic who said he could fix everything. Slowly you began to forget the previous gut-wrenching journey and your car is now running (not as well as it used to) and seems to be getting better as this mechanic from Maul Street is working on it. Hey, I think I’m in love again.

If you cannot remember what happened in the past you will repeat those same errors in the future. Every great statesman has been a student of history. Every great investor has studied the history of the stock market to try to determine what the future will bring. Cycles continue to repeat and repeat because people forget the past. Those who are smart enough do not fall into the repetitive trap and instead take advantage of it.

One of the most predictable is the long cycle of the stock market. It usually runs about 16 to 18 years. There is the up cycle which is invariably followed by a down cycle of equal length. Within each long cycle are several short cycles of 6 month to 2 years with a resumption of the downward move until the cycle is completed.

Do you realize we just completed an 18 year up cycle in 2000? Now the market is completing a one year advance within that cycle and may be getting ready to head down again. How is your spotless mind doing? Have you forgotten your lesson from 2000? Are you willing to make that same mistake again?

If you choose to forget you are doomed to repeat your losses. This time use your whole mind to learn from a past mistake so you will not see your money disappear – again.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

One of the basic laws of physics states that a body in motion will continue in motion in the direction it is going until interrupted by another force.

That basic physics law also applies to stocks and mutual funds. To see this trend it will be very apparent in a weekly or monthly chart rather than a daily chart. The daily chart shows too much noise (random movement).

In the Friday edition of Investor’s Business Daily you will find 37 weekly charts on the back page of Section 2. One of the common occurrences among these issues is the steady upward progression of price, many with an angle of 30 degrees or more. The up movement of price may have been going on for many months. This is the kind of stock you want to own and even add to your position as it continues upward.

Most brokers talk about dollar cost averaging and mean adding to a stock as it goes down. That is stupid. There is only one right way to dollar cost average and that is when it is going up - NEVER down. Averaging down will put you in the poor house.

Today’s stock market (end of 1999) we see the upward momentum of almost all the major stock averages - the DOW Jones Industrials, the S&P500, the Russell 2000 and many more. Some of these indexes are headed for the stratosphere. No, I have no idea how high or how far is up, but remain 100% invested to take advantage of this runaway bull. The market will tell me when to sell.

For anyone holding individual stocks about the only thing you can do is set a trailing stop-loss order so that when the issue turns you will be out with a nice profit. Don’t try to predict the top because you will sell too soon. Let the stock itself tell you when to get out. The amount of the stop will be up to you, but I like about 10% of Friday’s closing price. Never move the stop down.

There are people who buy mutual funds and put them away and never look to see how they are doing. This is a mistake. You are hurting your financial future if you do not regularly review your funds. Monthly is best, never less that quarterly. Momentum applies here too and even more so because many funds have a bias to a particular sector of the market. There are big caps, small caps, regional, international, value, etc., etc., etc. A policy to enhance your income is to see which sectors or groups are doing best and be invested in a fund that is heavily in that sector.

Mutual funds of a certain sector will run up for months at a time, even years, but when that sector becomes weak you should sell immediately and buy a stronger one. If you are with a discount broker there will be no commission to switch and, of course, you only buy no-load funds. Never blindly buy and hold any fund.

As you become aware of the momentum of various sectors and switch to stay with the strongest you can easily double your current return.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

It looks like we have now entered a new bull phase in the stock market and I have a question for you. Will you give back the profits that you make this time as you did in 2000? You sure don’t want to, but you are not going to get any help from your broker.

The investors (Not really the right term. They were gamblers.) had bought stocks and mutual funds during the 90’s and seen them have huge advances. They thought they were going to retire early, buy an island in the Caribbean and drink rum and coke all day with no hassels. All of a sudden the bull was attacked and eaten by a grizzly bear. Dreams of comfortable early retirement went up in smoke as the bull was barbequed.

We saw the technology stocks and many mutual funds lose about 80% of their value. Many people did not want to open their monthly brokerage statements and I couldn’t blame them. Were there any way those losses could have been avoided? You betcha, but you won’t hear that from your broker.

There is what I call portfolio insurance. It doesn’t cost any thing and anyone can have it at no charge. Brokerage companies don’t want you to use it much less even find out about it. It is a way of protecting your cash from being eaten by that nasty bear.

While the market is going up you don’t even think about any financial calamity, but history has shown as far back as you want to look that the stock market goes up and it also goes DOWN. Over long periods of time it does increase at about 6% per year (including dividends and the inflation factor). During the 90’s everyone was a financial genius and saw their accounts going up about 12% per year or more. That is not a sustainable pattern. Those periods do occur and are followed by years of declining prices. You don’t want to own stock then, do you?

What you have to decide is how much are you willing to give up before you decide to sell. How much of your money are you willing to risk from here where you are right now. Is it 2%, 5%, 10%, 20% or more? In 2000 we saw $200 stocks go down to $5.00. You sure don’t want to take that ride again.

After you make your decision you call your broker and tell (not ask) him you want to place a trailing stop loss order of 7% (whatever) on your position. Most assuredly he will try to talk you out of doing it. That 7% (?) is your insurance that you won’t have to sit through a 20%, 40% or more down draught.

He will not “watch your account”. That is your money not his. If you care about it you are the only one who will watch it. Place your open stop-loss order and keep your profits.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870