As an investor you will want to check out any equity before you buy it. Many investors go to Morningstar that is one of the largest providers of mutual fund information in the world. It is assumed that their information is correct. After all that is what you are paying for.

Recently the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) called them on the carpet for not correcting an error within a reasonable time (whatever that is according to the SEC). Everyone makes errors and this was no big deal.

It seems that when you went to their site and drew up a chart or asked for statistics on Rock Canyon Top Flight mutual fund it failed to notify the potential buyer that the fund had issued a very large dividend of approximately 25% and the NAV (Net Asset Value) dropped from $15 to $11 to reflect the $4.00 dividend.

It seems that when you ask for a chart of this fund on MarketWatch, Yahoo, TheStreet or Bloomberg that they only post the NAV and do not make any adjustment for the dividend or capital gains distributions. When you look at the chart it looks like the fund fell out of bed. Because I look at so many charts I knew immediately that this was a distribution and not some calamity. To be sure it is very simple to call the fund to verify this.

Every fund that makes dividend and capital gains distributions usually does so in December, some in November and very few at other times during the year.

Some nitpicker called the SEC and made a complaint about Morningstar. Not that I am a big fan of them (in fact I think their reports are worthless) they get their price information from other sources such as the above. If you are not familiar with the requirement of mutual funds to disburse their profit before year end you might be fooled when you see the price suddenly drop.

This is important for potential investors. I caution everyone to get a chart of at least a one year performance of any mutual fund before buying it. It is better to go back to year 2000 to see if the fund manager was able to keep from losing money during the last 4 years. Almost none of them could so they talk about how they did better than the S&P500 Index which had a huge loss. Don’t fall for that one.

Once again I caution that any purchase should have an exit plan. One of the basic rules of investing is never to lose a lot if you are wrong. Small losses will not ruin your portfolio, but big losses can ruin your retirement. Set your loss limit and stick with it. For some it might be 5%, others 10% or more, but have an exit strategy or you will go broke.

The secret of the stock market that Wall Street does not want you to know is that success in the market is not buying it is selling.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Have you been listening to the talking heads on CNBC-TV? Or those talk radio stock experts? Getting all those good recommendations on what to buy now. Now?

Those guys keep telling me the market is oversold. It can’t go any lower. (But it does.) I bet your broker has some hot tips for you too. Advice from a broker is a eulogy for your money. I don’t think he has told you about the one position you should have in your account right now. It’s a nasty four letter word to him - CASH. In a money market fund it will make you about 5%, maybe 6% and that is better than the bloodletting going on in the market.

There is an old saying - "When in doubt, get out". And right now everything is in doubt. The "experts" are confused as one says ‘recession’, another says ‘hard landing’, another ’soft landing’, ‘buy’, and no one says ’sell’. That last word is a ‘no-no’ on Wall Street. Less than 3% of all brokerage recommendations are sells. They are afraid they will offend the company and won’t be able to talk to the CEO any more. Hey, what about us customers out here? We are the ones who are paying the bills.

Garrett van Wagoner of the Van Wagoner family of funds said he follows 5,200 Nasdaq stocks and that more than 1,000 of them have lost 90% of their value and 200 have dropped over 99% in value. Yes, he says there are some great values out there, but he doesn’t say which ones or when to buy. I’d like to ask him if he was smart enough to sell some of those puppies before they hit bottom.

The stock market mavens think they are market makers, but they are more like weather meteorologists who predict but cannot manipulate the weather. When the weatherman is wrong you get wet. When the stock experts are wrong you get soaked.

As I have said in past columns there is no hope that Nasdaq will go back to the 5000 level for many, many years. Ten years would be my closest guess. There are too many stocks being held by investors who are waiting for a rally up so they can get out "even". This kind of thinking keeps you poor. Your money is tied up in a stock that will never perform when it could be some place else making you a profit. There is always some dummy out there who will buy your garbage.

We are having a bargain basement sale now in the stock market. Most of it is something no one wants. Ever been to a garage sale? Can their junk be your treasure? There will be plenty of time to buy, but now is not the time to go shopping.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

I have watched my cat play with a bag of catnip. At first he is having fun and slowly he becomes drunk with pleasure and then finally he becomes so tipsy he falls over to sleep it off. The pleasure part is great, but I am not sure if he awakes without a hangover.

Rocket (that’s his name) reminds me of a one of those people who buy a stock and hold it. At first while it is going up there is great pleasure and then euphoria until they know they are market geniuses. That’s the drunken stage. Finally when the market turns against them they fall over not having enough sense to quit (sell) and later when realization returns they have a huge hangover (called hindsight) - and no money.

Can these 4-footed animals teach us 2-footed beasts anything? Can we be smart enough to quit while we are ahead? Rocket (and his friends) continue to make the same error time after time. We are supposed to be smarter so let’s learn from their misconduct.

If you own stocks and/or mutual funds and the market is going up it is super catnip and we keep buying knowing that somewhere over the rainbow we are going to be rich and retire like kings. Almost none of today’s investors ever think about selling. Wall Street tells us to buy and hold. They don’t want you to sell because if you do they quit making money. Brokers make nothing on money market accounts.

Today with money market accounts paying less than 1% investors know the market will come back up. That is what all brokers preach. That is their catnip; their promise of better times ahead (with no plan to protect your cash). If they take that catnip promise away you might sober up and get rid of those losing stocks and mutual funds.

The great mother of all stocks, AT&T, well, it used to be, has dropped from $100/share to $14. What are those widows and orphans eating for supper now? Not steak. Maybe cat food.

When your equities are no longer rising and many are declining it is time to exit the market. Give up the catnip. When the trend stops its upward angle it is time to sell. Of all methods of investing the safest and most reliable is trend following. It is the catnip on the way up, but when the trend starts to decline you realize you are one smart cat and you are sober and walk away (sell).

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

For the last few weeks we have seen the stock market averages going higher and higher each week yet the economic news is still very bad. Is this bear market coming to an end? Will the stock prices and mutual funds go back up to where they were?

It seems all the talking heads on TV and the talk radio guys are telling you that now is the time to buy because the market will be much higher next year. "You can’t afford to not be in the market" is the cry. They have lots of reasons that sound good, but almost none of them will hold water upon close analysis.

The one thing that I hear is that the market is now "fairly valued". Now the S&P500 index has a P/E ratio (that’s Price/Earnings) of around 32 that means it will take 32 years to get back your money based on what the company’s stock is earning today. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize there are many other places to get a better return. There are many, many stocks with P/E ratios in the hundreds and others that have no earnings at all. That doesn’t mean those stocks won’t go up; it means they won’t stay up once people realize they have no value other than anticipation. That is why the Nasdaq has declined 75% so far and it is still over priced.

The Wall Street mavens say that next year earnings will be much better so the price today is cheap compared to what it will be then so you better buy now. When you go back in time you will see that the average P/E for the S&P500 index has been 14 - 15 for many years. Could that mean that "this time it is different" or is the index over priced by 200%?

Forty percent of the advance in stock prices is due to directional movement of the market as a whole, 40% due to the strength of the sector that it is in and 20% due to the quality of the company itself. You see, just because it is a "good" company does not mean the stock will advance. Birds of a feather flock together so the "good" company must be in a strong sector that is advancing and then the whole market must be advancing also. When you have all 3 of these things going you have a good chance of making money.

Where are we today? You must step back to take a long view of the market indexes. The price action of the past few weeks cannot be counted as the market trend as a whole. Most market technical analysts say that the market is in a rally phase of a long term bear market and that the rally will halt and head down somewhere near the 200-day moving average that is currently at about 10,300 on the DOW.

Is the bear back in his cage? Has the bull market returned? It depends upon who you want to believe but whatever you do you should be protecting your capital with trailing stop-loss orders on your stocks and mental stops for your mutual funds. Even those with IRAs and 401Ks can move their money into a money market account should the market start down again.

Time will tell.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

There has been great condemnation recently because China has been selling its goods on the world market at prices below what other countries, especially the U.S., can produce. It has been called exporting deflation.

The major reason for these extremely low prices has been their labor costs which I am told are about $100 per month for ordinary factory workers. Even factories in Mexico are being closed and shipped to China because of the labor differential. These extremes in production costs are literally putting many, many companies out of business. When you look at the labels in almost any store you will note the product is made in some Asian country. As far as you, the consumer, is concerned you are buying a product at a good value. Political considerations aside there is no question this has been beneficial to retail buyers.

Is there any reason China should act otherwise? No, they are acting like any businessman. Yes, I realize it is a country, but countries do the same as businesses just on a larger scale.

Suppose you and I each own a hamburger franchise. I have a McDonalds and you have a Berger King across the street. We each sell our hamburgers for 99 cents. The competition is equal. You also own a huge cattle ranch and slaughter house/packing plant as well as a large bakery and you want to increase your retail food business so you pass along the savings you make from the meat production and bakery to the burger stand. You reduce the price to 75 cents and now make a profit of 20 cents per burger whereas I only make 10 cents and must sell it for 99 cents. When someone wants a hamburger where do you think they will go?

I can scream all I want about how unfair this is, but so what. He is not selling at a loss and even if I lower my price I can’t go low enough to make a profit. I eventually will lose all my customers to him and will go out of business. Is that fair? Sorry, but fair doesn’t count. That’s business.

China is selling hamburgers (whatever) cheap, but they are of equal quality. Consumers want both quality and price (value) and don’t care where it comes from. Countries are complaining that they are selling "too cheap". No they are not because they are making a reasonable profit. One of their production tools (cheap labor) is so good that businesses from all over the world are moving there to take advantage of it. If they don’t they will be out of business. You can’t blame them.

Over the next 10 to 20 years China can become the world’s leading country because of their economic development. They don’t have the overhead (translation - central government, entitlement programs, lawyers, labor unions, etc.) we do so they will be able to keep costs down. Eventually (many years) their central government will slowly evolve toward giving more to their people, but it is going to be decades. In the meantime, learn to speak Chinese.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Being wrong is OK, but let’s not carry it to extremes. That applies to everything, but let’s limit our discussion here to the stock market.

I have been trading for several decades and was an exchange memebr and floor trader for 17 years. You learn fast there or you go broke in a hurry. As you can see I managed to hold my own for a few years until I found the secret and started to become a successful trader. Every professional trader I know knows the one great secret and that is to keep your losses small.

We all learned that when we took a position - either long or short - that we better be able to jump out if the trade was not going our way. Many of my friends were scalpers. That means they were trading for just a few ticks and every night went home flat. Flat is no positions at all.

Others, myself included, took a longer look and planned to hold a position for a period of time. That could be several days or weeks. If you were right the longer you held on the more money you would make.

The general public seems think that exchange members know everything and always made money. Tain’t so. Many traders were wrong more than 50% of the time. Huh? Yes, fifty percent. My account had losses 40% of the time and 20% were scratch trades (neither winners nor losers).

You ask, "If you are out of the money 60% of your trades how can you make money?" This is what every professional knows: Keep your losses small and let your profits run. How many times have you heard that one? BUT how many times have you ignored that rule?

At the end of the year when you analyze your trades you find that you made $3.00 for each $1.00 you lost you will show a nice big profit.

I don’t care what business you are in you don’t put your whole wad on a single outcome and stick with it until it either works or go broke. That is what brokers and mutual fund managers want you to do. They want you to buy, but never sell.

It is a tragedy for the small investor today that mutual fund families are putting in selling restrictions to discourage investors from dumping funds that are headed down. Many require long holding periods and if you sell prior to that time they charge an extra fee of 2%. They give lame excuses that I know are not true for doing this. Never buy any fund or trade with any brokerage company that has that kind of rule.

It is cheaper to pay the 2% or whatever fee there is and get out than hang around and lose 20% to 40% of your equity. Look back at 2000 to 2003. This can happen again despite what your broker tells you.

Be wrong and run home with most of your money. You still have enough to invest in a better opportunity. If you are disciplined to get out of any bad situation early you will end up a rich person.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

It looks like the market is ready to start up again so it is time to buy mutual funds, but you only want to invest your money in funds that go up. First, you don’t want to start with a loss so be sure to purchase no-load mutual funds. There is no need to ever pay commissions as there are several thousand funds that have no commission whatsoever for either buying or selling.

If you talk with a broker he will try to confuse you that a commission fund is better than a no-load fund. He is lying. Find another broker. Also don’t pay any attention to who the fund manager is. All big name fund managers have cold periods when their funds go down.

Another thing the "experts" tell you is look at the expense ratios. Nonsense again. Whether it is 1%, 2% or 3% the only thing you are concerned with is is it going up because that is the net figure for your bank account. If you buy a fund at $20/share and it goes to $40/share do you care if the expense ratio is 10%? (It won’t be.) The only thing that counts is the bottom line.

Now the most important thing. Which no-load fund? There are several good sources. Go to the library to look in recent back issues of Investor’s Business Daily. On the first page of the second section under "Making Money in Mutuals" near the bottom there will be a box listing 25 to 50 funds. You will want to find the top funds for the past 3 months, 6 months and 9 months sometimes in several different issues of the paper. Don’t pay any attention to a longer period of time than 12 months. You want funds that are going up now. In the same paper you will find the toll-free phone numbers listed by the names of the funds.

Or if you can use a computer go to www.smartmoney.com. Click on Mutual Funds. Then click on 25 Top Funds. Here you will find another list of the best performing funds for the past year. Most of them are no-load and if there is a load charge it is shown in the Fee column. There are many Internet sources like this if you want to hunt for them.

Call to be sure they have no redemption fees if you decide to sell them in a short period of time. This is important.

With your computer or you can use one at the library I suggest you go to www.bigcharts.com or www.cbsmarketwatch.com to look up each fund by the symbol. You will immediately see why these particular funds are a good buy. They have been going up even when the general market was going down. As long as this upmove continues you will want to own these funds. When they start down you must sell them to protect your capital and your profits. Never stay with a fund that is going down. Brokers will not do this for you. You must be in charge of your own money.

This may or may not be the start of the next bull market move, but if it is this is the right way to buy mutual funds now or any time. (Cut out and save this column.)

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

On Friday or Saturday evening my wife gets a movie from Block Buster and after dinner we sit, hold hands and watch. This week she brought back one that I think every investor or anyone contemplating investing in the market should see. It is called "Boiler Room".

How many times have you been called out of the blue by some no-name broker who wants to make you rich provided you buy shares in this great new issue or some stock that is just about to "take off".

Usually they start off with do I remember he called me 6 months ago and recommended so-and-so issue that is currently in the news because it has gone up 100 or 200%. He did not make that call and if he had I am sure I would not remember it. Also the name of his firm is one I never heard of, but it sounds very legitimate and he might even say they are affiliated with Chase Manhattan Bank or some other big bank. They might have their checking account with that institution, but otherwise they have no connection with them. Now he has another recommendation that is going to do even better that that one. Yes, and pigs can fly!

If you haven’t done so yet don’t let him go any further. Hang up. Oh, I know you can’t because your mother taught you it is rude to hang up on people. Please, this time DON’T listen to your mother. He will try to get you into a conversation by asking simple questions that must be answered with a "Yes". Stop listening. If you can’t bring yourself to hang up then put the phone down and walk away. In 10 minutes he will be gone to call another sucker.

There really are boiler rooms out there selling worthless securities and everything they do is 100% within the law and 100% immoral. How do I know this? I used to own a brokerage firm and I received monthly reports from the regulatory agencies outlining charges against these shady dealers. Fortunately, I did not have those problems as I would not allow hype to open accounts.

The things being told on the phone are usually too good to be true and that is a fact. Do yourself a favor and rent that movie. Not all brokerage firms are like this, but remember my basic rule.

NEVER SEND MONEY TO A VOICE ON THE PHONE.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Have you bought any mutual funds this year or late last year while the market was doing its skyrocket thing? Last year it was hard to lose money. This year it has been easy.

You should be calling your mutual fund (they all have 800 numbers) to find out if and when they plan to pay their capital gains and dividends. You might say to yourself, they won’t be paying anything this year because the fund is selling for less now than it did at the beginning of the year. Think again. It is very probable that the mutual fund manager took profits on many high flyers that he bought cheap last year. According to the way funds are set up those profits are taxable to holders of the mutual fund and not to the fund itself.

It is possible you bought a fund at $40 per share that is now selling at $30 per share and be hit with a 25% capital gains distribution of $10. On paper you now have a $10 per share loss and a tax bill based on the $10 per share distribution. That is adding injury to insult.

With this as a possible scenario it might be prudent to sell your fund for less than you paid for it. You should work the numbers with your accountant to see if this might reduce your tax bill. But you have to do it now. You can’t wait until after the mutual fund declares its capital gains distribution. This is especially true if you have purchased any high tech or international funds during the past year. You can carry losses forward to next year to offset against profits and distributions next year.

The greatest numbers of mutual funds declare these distributions near the end of the year, usually starting in November with most of them in December. The rumors I hear are that the distributions will be early this year because of the poor performance of the majority of funds.

This applies to everyone who does not have a tax shelter of some kind such as a 401k, IRA, SEP or other similar investment vehicle.

One piece of advice I want you to heed. Don’t buy any mutual funds now because they are "cheap". Wait until after they declare their capital gains and dividend distributions. You could be whacked with a big tax bill.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Every day I hear someone on CNBC proclaim that "this is the bottom" and you should get in there and buy all those "bargains". "The valuations of the DOW stocks are a steal."

The low of DOW 8,000 immediately after September 11 was "the low" and the market did rally to about 10,700. That’s 2,700 points. A smart trader could have made a fortune in six months. Oops! Then there was a Brody to DOW 7500. That’s more than 3,000 points. That, for sure, is "the bottom". I heard them say so on TV and radio. It can’t go any lower. Can it?

There has been a 1,500 point rally, but there now seems to be another one of those ‘Oops’ taking place. What is going on anyway?

The great majority of the media are too young to remember the last bear market of 1973-74 when the S&P lost 43% and the Value Line index was down 75%. In the last 2 years this bear has seen the S&P500 index lose 50% and there does not seem to be any so-called bottom in sight. Yet investors are encouraged to buy "for the long haul". Even the staunchest Buy and Holders are finding out that they need to have loss limit orders in - a long time ago. There is such a thing as market timing.

What has been happening is the market is making a correction of the excesses of the 18-year bull market from 1982 to 2000. If it took 18 years to reach the top then how long will it take to get to the bottom? I wish I knew. The predictions run from today to 15 years hence. Japan’s bear just celebrated (?) it’s 19-year low. From 1920 to 1980 there were 3 bull markets that lasted about 16 years and each was followed by bear markets that hung on for about an equal length of time.

As a technical analyst I have not seen anything that makes me believe we are near "the bottom".

And when that happens will the market take off on another bull run? Not very likely as the little guy will be broke and so shook up from his losses he will vow to "never play the market again". That very thing has taken place at the bottom of every major bear market. In 1932 it was more than a generation before investor confidence returned. Am I implying this could be another 1929-32? Anything is possible with the stock market. No broker will ever tell you that cash is a position. Cash at zero percent interest is better than losing 20% each year.

They might be having a big garage sale on Wall Street today, but I prefer to keep my money in my pocket - or maybe under the mattress.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005