I constantly hear the talking heads on CNBC-TV, the radio and other places talking about THE market. Of course, they mean the stock market which actually now is world wide and no longer just concentrated in New York. To every New Yorker New York is the center of the world from which radiates all knowledge and everything else worthwhile.

The stock market is thousands of companies world wide. Those that have been listed with the New York Stock Exchange must meet strict requirements as to the capitalization of the company and the price of their stock as well as its ability to be traded so there must be many thousands of shares and large numbers of shareholders.

The trick, and I call it that even though it isn’t, is to be able to tell when it is in an up trend and when it is going down. If you knew this you could not only make a lot of money but could keep from giving back profits when you have them. When the market is going up you want to own stocks and mutual funds because 60% of a move in stocks is due to the general direction of the overall market.

When I first invested I made and lost like everyone else until I learned to listen to the voice of Mr. Market. Because we are so overwhelmed with useless data from brokers, newspapers, magazines, TV, friends and other nefarious sources we haven’t taken the time to learn the language of the market. And it isn’t that complicated. Mr. Market will tell you all you need to know.

Most of us don’t have time to be pouring over the financial news every day because we have a life that requires our attention, but if you are willing to give about 15 minutes each week you can learn the language of Mr. Market. Day trading language is not where it’s at; however, the long term language is very easy. You simply plot a 200-day moving average of the S&P500 Index and when the index price is above the 200-DMA you buy and when it is below you sell and put your money in a money market fund.

Now I know that seems too simple, but it isn’t. You can easily check it out with a historical study on many Internet web sites. I use www.bigcharts.com by clicking on the red Interactive box and then following the instructions in the left hand column. With this simple method you will always be on the right side of the market.

The mutual funds in this simple plan only need to be checked once each week and sometimes only monthly. If you have a 401K you should be able to transfer to a money market fund when a sell signal is given with no commission charges. It will be a rare occasion if you do this twice a year.

This not a get-rich-quick scheme. It will allow you to keep most of the profits you have made during a bull market and protect your funds during a bear phase.

Al Thomas

Author of "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!"

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

Last time we looked at the real performance of the stock market (we used the Dow Jones as a reference point) and the apparent performance that makes the headlines and can be seen by a casual look at a chart or "ballpark" figures - briefly; the Dow went up, for example, less than 50 points between April 1999 and April 2005 - essentially 6 years with no growth!

But behind that seemingly "becalmed" Dow there were at least 10 significant moves each and every year totaling many thousands of points!

But did the Wall Street Moguls, the so-called "Masters of the Universe" make you any money from those huge movements?

No.

Of course they didn’t!

Here’s how I know…

The web is a goldmine of information. Knowledge that was just not available to the private investor or trader is now there at the press of a mouse button.

Forget the Freedom of Information Act - the Internet leaves it standing.

Foremost amongst websites offering information about the financial facts of life (the things that affect you directly - Mutual Fund performance etc) is Morningstar.com.

And amongst other things, morningstar.com publishes a league table of mutual funds on a weekly, monthly and annual basis.

If you check out the morningstar website you’ll find all sorts of revealing things about all the investments you could ever need.

If you look at the 10 year chart because mutual funds are essentially long term "investments", which most people seem to keep almost for ever (If you want the up to date figures just go to www.morningstar.com and search their data base for the 10 year performance of mutual funds)

Take a look…

You’ll see that the top rated fund, over 10 years, has shown a total growth of 23% (at the time of writing this article) - which at first sight looks fairly impressive; 23%; wow!

But the problem is, that 23% is total growth over 10 years, not growth per annum.

So the 23% total growth starts to look like a less than impressive 1.7% per annum compounded (hey, even the banks are giving more than that on deposit).

I’ll be honest, I didn’t believe it either - so I sent off an email to morningstar.com and they confirmed my worst fears - 23% is the total growth over 10 years.

Sheesh!

And the average growth of all 1304 funds? A less than impressive 7.3% over 10 years (less than one half of one percent)!

Check out that hiding place under your mattress - at least you don’t have to pay exhorbitant fees to keep your money there.

The one certainty is that the Fund Managers will not, personally, have fared so badly - they will still draw their large salaries and enjoy all the benefits of charging you fat fees for their "professional expertise"

As Thomas Sowell wrote:

"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong"

OK, I know not everybody has money "tied up" in Mutual Funds and some people prefer the higher returns of the Stock Market.

So what about the analysts and stock brokers?

Well, we all know about Enron and the others - the stocks in the early 90s that crippled so many of America’s biggest pension funds.

All these charts and facts can easily be found on the web

You’ll see that on 20 November 2000 there was a "technical sell signal" flagged for Enron when it was trading at just over $80 per share (don’t worry about the term "technical sell signal" - it just means a sophisticated trading programme told it’s owner that he should SELL).

Over the next 2.5 months, Enron’s price fluctuated up and down without really going anywhere, until the middle of February 01 when it really started to slide (just as it appeared to have stabilized at $80).

As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words, and to save my typing fingers - the numbers speak for themselves.

Follow the chart to the right and you’ll see that the major stockbroking houses and analysts were still saying "BUY" as the market lost 75% of it’s value over the next 9 months.

It was only on October 19th 2001 - just 11 months after our "technical sell signal" that the first warning appeared from the Brokers and Analysts - and even then there was a further major BUY reccommendation before Enron slipped again to be worth less than 40 cents on 30 November 2001 - A decline from $80 per share to $0.26 per share in 12 months!

And all the time the major brokers and analysts were telling their ordinary customers to either Buy or Hold.

And as we later found out, the Brokers and Analysts were telling their biggest corporate customers a totally different story.

So, whilst the Stock Market is your best friend (trust me on this one, or look for my previous article) - the people who operate it may simply be their own best friend, and from your point of view, any advice you receive from them should be taken with a very large pinch of salt.

And if you still think you can trust the advice they give you, here’s the simple "5 word question" I mentioned at the beginning of this article… Ring them and ask:

"What Guarantee Do You Give"? Just pick up the phone and ask them about the guarantee they give you regarding their advice.

Once they’ve stopped coughing and spluttering and picked themselves up from the floor, you may hear this well worn mantra: "the value of stocks can fall as well as rise" etc etc.

If they’re not prepared to guarantee their advice, then frankly their advice is not to be trusted.

More next time…

Geoffrey Cummins is a full time stock market trader and has spent the last 12 years developing what he calls his "weedy little spreadsheet trading system", giving him some unique insights into the working of the world’s stock markets. Under pressure from friends and family, Geoffrey is now making his unique insights and trading signals available to a worldwide audience

And unlike your stockbroker, he guarantees you a minimum 300% return on your investment (ROI) No wild claims, just common sense advice and the best Risk Free Trial (a full 90 days for less than $5 a week) on the internet all backed up by his unique 3 part / 300% guarantee.

If he doesn’t provide you with a minimum return on your investment of 300% - he’ll give you your money back. No questions asked. The Best Internet Home Based Business Opportunity

Robert Rodriguez likes to buy stocks at their lows. When there are not enough stocks hitting new lows, he closes his fund and piles up cash. This is what he has been doing lately. His moves deserve attention for good reasons, his $1.7 billion FPA Capital Fund has averaged an annual total return of more than 17% over the last 20 years, net of sales charge, handily beating all the benchmarks by wide margins.

As Robert Rodriguez finds slim pickings in the stock market, his goal has changed to capital preservation. The cash position in his fund has been in steady increase. On March 31, 2005 , it is at 34%. As a reference, between 1984 and 1997, his cash level was rarely above 5% and most of the time it was less than 2%. Now he is sitting on this big trunk of cash, awaiting opportunities. "You never know the value of liquidity until you need it and don’t have it." He said, “This is one of those times when it takes a great deal of patience, discipline, and conviction to maintain such a contrarian position, because of the potential business and investment risk that it entails.”

Robert Rodriguez’ contrarian position in investment goes beyond adjusting the level of cash. He also reduces his fund’s weighting in the sectors or industries that he thinks are overpriced. He has done this before. The years of 1979 –1981 was the time of the second oil crisis, oil and gas prices were soaring. Many "experts" were forecasting oil prices of $100 per barrel within ten years. Energy stocks were being valued as growth stocks and represented nearly 31% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. Robert Rodriguez went to the contrary; he liquidated all his energy stocks and bought bonds. The oil mania resulted in large-scale capital destruction with virtually every bank in the state of Texas going bankrupt by 1987.

Robert Rodriguez’s contrarian investment style was tested again during the peak of the tech bubble. In March 2000, he analyzed the operating and stock market performances of Microsoft and Cisco Systems, made growth assumptions for them and the U.S. economy. He biased down the expected growth and valuation assumptions for each of these companies. The result was that Microsoft’s market valuation would increase to 36% of nominal GDP. Cisco’s expected market valuation would rise to 48% of nominal GDP. The combination of these two estimates would equal 84% of GDP by 2010. Apparently (now) the odds of this happening were not great. In light of these trends, he reduced his Fund’s exposure to technology stocks. We all know how that bubble ended.

So what sectors does he like or dislike right now? He has energy stocks at 19.3% of the Fund, it is between three and four times the weighting of the various indexes. This is the highest energy allocation that he has had since 1979, when he began selling this sector. Financial service stocks total 2.1%; the lowest allocation he has had in 35 years. His reason: financial sector is at or near-record representation in all the major indexes. Financial service companies represent nearly 21% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization — a 33-year high. They are among the largest components in other stock indexes as well. In terms of operating profits, they comprise almost 28% of the S&P 500.

In summarizing his contrarian investment style, Robert Rodriguez listed these key attributes:

Focus on market leadership or niche companies that are in industries that are perceived to be out of favor and unloved — a bottom-up strategy. Select companies that have strong balance sheets — typically with total debt to total capital of less than 40%.

They must be at a significant valuation discount to the market and its historical valuation parameters.

Acquire them at modest premiums to book value and at less than 1x revenues. They should be on or close to being on the new low list. Have a long-term investment time frame — typically three to five years.

Dr. Charlie Tian, Director of Research of http://gurufocus.com, the website that tracks the stock picks of Warren Buffett, George Soros and other guru investors like Bill Nygren, Mason Hawkins, Ken Fisher, David Dreman, Martin Whitman, James Gipson, Robert Rodriguez, Ronald Muhlenkamp, Wallace Weitz, William, Ruane, Edward Lampert, Edward Owens, Richard Aster, Jr, Robert Olstein, John Keeley, Brian Rogers and Tweedy, Browne.

Let me start by saying that…

Most online brokers do not make it easy for their clients!

There are absolutely no standards for trade history reporting from one broker to the next. This presents a real challenge for any trader who wants to analyze his or her trade history.

How does one get their trades into some sort of trade analysis software or spreadsheet? How can this be done for several different brokers?

What do they provide?

Some brokers provide simple trade history reports while others provide very complex statements or reports which have so much HTML formatting that it makes it virtually impossible for any one to copy and paste the information into a personal spreadsheet! Few provide a comma or tab delimited text file or Excel file download, and even these differ greatly in column formatting.

A few brokers have interfaces to personal finance software programs such as Quicken or MS Money. But these programs were never designed to handle the volumes of trades made by the active trader, and most have serious limitations when it comes to properly matching these to IRS requirements.

Active traders need to analyze their profits and losses. Trades must be imported and matched. This needs to do be done simply and regularly if they are to ever get a handle on their trading gains and losses.

This may be the most overlooked problem facing active traders today.

David Eich, Author
TradeLog™ trade accounting and tax software
http://www.armencomp.com/tradelog

If you were to find that you had some severe illness that required surgery, would you attempt to perform that surgery upon yourself? What if your car broke down and needed a valve job? Would you get out the Craftsman tool set you got for Christmas three years ago and start tinkering under the hood even though you know absolutely nothing about engines? Of course you wouldn’t do either of these things because there are times in life when we know we must seek the assistance of a professional. So why is it that so many people try to make their own investment decisions without consulting a professional stock broker?

A stock broker is a trained financial professional who knows how to watch the trends of the stock market, is kept up to date on financial developments by her brokerage firm, and knows how to make wise and sound investment decisions. When you work with a stock broker you have the benefit of not only the broker’s personal experience and expertise, but that of the entire brokerage firm. Since the brokerage firm and the stock broker do well when you do well, you know that they are working in your best interest.

When you’re ready to invest in the stock market, it is always advisable to seek the expertise and advice of a professional stock broker. It just makes sense to do so and makes much more sense than trying to “go it alone.” Choosing a stock broker can sometimes mean the difference between success and failure in the investment market. After all, if you wouldn’t dream about dismantling your plasma television to try and figure out why you can’t seem to tune in Wheel of Fortune for fear you could possibly ruin the set, why would you take the same chances with your financial future?

Visit the Global Investment Institute and signup for our free Investing For Beginners E-Course at http://www.Global-Investment-Institute.com

Investment webmasters or publishers, please feel free to use this article provided this reference is included and all links remain active.

What is the Series 7 Exam?

If you are looking to become a licensed Stockbroker, you need to know about the Series 7.

The Series 7 is a 250 question exam that when passed, licenses you to act as a Registered Representative. Persons who receive this license are allowed to sell most securities. These securities would include: Stock, Bonds, Options, Mutual Funds and Annuities. The license itself is active while you are practicing it. Practicing with a Series 7 means that you are either employed or affiliated with a member firm. If you leave the business, your license will still remain active for 2 years after your last day with the firm. If you do not re-enter the business within 2 years, your license will expire. You would then have to re-take the exam again.

The Series 7 exam itself is comprised of many topics although not equally divided. Approximately 50 questions will be on Municipal Bonds alone. Other major topics include Options, Industry Rules and Customer Account handling.

The SERIES 7 is a multiple choice test graded on 250 questions administered on computer by an NASD testing vendor (Prometric Technology Center). 70% is needed to pass the SERIES 7 Exam. You will be given 6 hours to complete the exam in two 3 hour parts. Each question is worth .4 of a point. 175 questions correct will equal a passing grade. The score is not curved or rounded up so yes, if you get 174 questions right, you will get a 69.6% and you will fail. Each part also includes 5 experimental questions, which do not count on your total score. You will not know which ones are the experimental questions. Each exam is different, meaning if you take your test next to someone else, your test will not be the same. The percentages will be the same but the questions that each individual is tested on will be random. This applies to all Licensing exams but the difference between tests is less with smaller content exams like the Series 63.

You will be given a calculator to use at the center. Applicants are not permitted to bring their own. Scrap paper will be given to you as well for you to use during the test. Once the test officially starts you can write down anything you want (Formulas, Rules etc.). The computer also offers the student the ability to change their answers at the end of the first or second part of the test. Meaning, if you wish to change an answer to a question in the first half, you will have to wait until the end of the first half to do it. Once the second half starts, you will be unable to view your first half. Basically, you are taking 2 different 125 question exams. Even if you are unsure what the correct answer to a question is, you must enter something before the next question is shown.

Don’t Cheat: Today, the testing centers require fingerprint verification when you take your test. A student was caught a few years ago on camera cheating in the testing room. This person had a tiny video camera device on his tie and a listening transmitter in his ear. He was actually filming his screen while someone else at another location was feeding him the answers. I didn’t believe this one at first but several people told it to me. Pretty amazing. Needless to say, he was nabbed and busted. Just study and you will pass….and maybe learn something too!

Good Luck!

Nick Hunter is the President of American Investment Training, Inc. (AIT) http://www.aitraining.com He has personally taught thousands of students in the securities industry for over 15 years.

It has occurred to me that many of the readers of this article may be interested in a career change. If so, I suggest that becoming a stock market guru may be worthy of your consideration. It’s a job that — if you follow my advice — pays extremely well, doesn’t take much your time, requires almost no experience, and can potentially bring you fame and fortune.

I have been observing market gurus for many years and have noticed that there are certain traits that the successful ones have in common. So to get your new venture off to a roaring start, I’m going to tell you exactly how to be successful as a stock market guru.

1. First of all, you must do something to get the attention of the financial media. The way to do that is to make extreme predictions. No "the market is going up 10%" or "down 5%" kind of forecasts. You have to say things like "the Dow is going to 36,000" or "button down the hatches, the market is going to crash any day now."

   The best way to decide whether to be bullish or bearish is to measure the mood of the public. You will be much more popular if you’re wildly bullish at market tops or wildly bearish at market bottoms. You want to tell people what they’re already predisposed to believe.

   Also, you can never change your mind. The media doesn’t like that. So be a perma-bull or a perma-bear. But whatever you do, never, ever waver from your original stance.

2. After you have decided whether you want to make a living being extremely bullish or extremely bearish it is very important that no one remembers when you first made your original prediction. This one is going to be tricky and requires some skill. Don’t ever let anyone pin you down on timing issues. The way to do that is to just keep repeating your prediction over and over again until everyone forgets how long you’ve been making the forecast.

   For role models, watch the politicians. They are experts at not allowing anyone to pin them down on anything that they prefer you not to remember.

3. You must repeat your market prediction loudly, often, and with extreme confidence. When the market goes against you, simply keep repeating that you’re very confident of your stance and you have no doubt that the market will go your way very soon. Again, you must make people forget about timing issues and the best way to do that is through repetition.
4. The market will eventually go your way. It may take years, but it will happen. Now listen closely — whenever the market finally goes your direction, no matter how small a move it is, proudly declare victory. I mean shout it from the roof tops. You were right all along and it’s all because of your astute analysis.

   Do not make any mention of when you first made your original market call. If you are cornered and you must make a comment about your entry point, just say that you have been averaging into your position for quite some time. That way no one will know that you actually lost a lot of money.

5. Speaking of losing money, never follow your own predictions by investing your own funds. Otherwise, the income that you make as a famous guru will be taken away from you by the market.

Good luck in your new career. And when I see you on CNBC promoting your new book — Boom Times Ahead: Dow 38,437 or How to Get Rich During the Coming Depression — I’ll know that you took my advice to heart.

Copyright 2005

Larry Holmes invites you to visit http://www.smart-money-report.com/ Your common sense guide for financial and investment success.

Are you wondering what a stock broker is and what they do? Here’s your answer.

A stock broker is a person or a firm that trades on its clients behalf, you tell them what you want to invest in and they will issue the buy or sell order. Some stock brokers also give out financial advice that you a charged for.

It wasn’t too long ago and investing was very expensive because you had to go through a full service broker which would give you advice on what to do and would charge you a hefty fee for it. Now there are a plethora of discount stock brokers such as Scottrade http://www.scottrade.com now you can trade stocks for a low fee such as $7 total.

I can think of three different types of stock brokers.

1. Full Service Broker - A full-service broker can provide a bunch of services such as investment research advice, tax planning and retirement planning.
2. Discount Broker – A discount broker let’s you buy and sell stocks at a low rate but doesn’t provide any investment advice.
3. Direct-Access Broker- A direct access broker lets you trade directly with the electronic communication networks (ECN’s) so you can trade faster. Active traders such as day traders tend to use Direct Access Brokers

So as you can tell there a few options for a stock broker and you really need to pick which one suits you needs.

Reed Floren runs a stock market forum where you can find answers to all your stock market questions register for your free membership at this stock market forum http://www.reedfloren.com/forums/index.php?act=Reg&CODE=00

Most of the buying and selling on the stock market is handled by stock brokers on behalf of their clients, who are the investors. Many different types of brokerage services are available.

Full-Service Brokers

"Full-service brokers" offer a variety of ways to help clients meet their investment goals. These brokers can give advice about which stocks to buy and sell, and often have large research departments that analyze market trends and predict stock movements, for their clients.

Such services are not free, of course. Full-service brokers charge the highest commission rates in the industry. Your decision whether to use a full-service broker will depend on your level of self-confidence, your knowledge of the stock market, and the number of trades you make regularly.

Discount Brokers

Investors who wish to save on commission fees generally use discount brokers. Brokers in this category charge much lower commissions, but they don’t offer advice or analysis. Investors who prefer to make their own trading decisions, and those who trade often rely on discount brokers for their transactions.

Online Brokers

Taking the discount concept 1 step further, online brokers are the least expensive way to trade stocks. Both full-service and discount brokers usually offer discounts for orders placed online. Some brokers operate exclusively online, and they offer the best rates of all.

Account Requirements

Whichever type of broker you choose, your first order of business will be to open an account. Minimum balance requirements vary among brokers, but it is usually between $500 and $1000. If you’re shopping for a broker, read the fine print about all the fees involved. You’ll find that some brokers charge an annual maintenance fee while others charge fees whenever your account balance falls below a minimum.

Cash Or Margin?

Brokerage accounts come in 2 basic types. The "cash account" offers no credit; when you buy, you pay the full stock price. With a "margin account," on the other hand, you can buy stock on margin, meaning the brokerage will carry some of the cost. The amount of margin varies from broker to broker, but the margin must be covered by the value of the client’s portfolio.

Any time a portfolio falls below a specified value, the investor will have to add funds or sell some stock. A greater opportunity exists for realizing gains (and losses) with margin accounts, because they allow investors to buy more stock with less cash. Involving greater risk than cash accounts, as they do, margin accounts are not recommended for inexperienced traders.

Selecting The Right Broker For You

You should carefully consider your needs as an investor before making the choice of a broker. Do you wish to receive advice about which stocks to buy? Are you uncomfortable making trades on the Internet? If so, you will be best served by a full-service broker. If you are comfortable buying on the Internet, and you have the knowledge and confidence to make your own trading decisions, then you will be better off with an online discount broker.

After deciding which type of broker you want, do some comparison-shopping between competitors. Significant cost differences can show up when you factor in all the annual fees and brokerage rates. Estimate how many trades you expect to make in a year, how much cash you can deposit into your account, whether you want to use margin accounts, and which services you need. Armed with this information, you’ll be prepared to compare your actual costs for various brokers, and to make an educated choice.

Visit Stock Trade to learn more. Ron King is a full-time researcher, writer, and web developer. Copyright 2005 Ron King. This article may be reprinted if the resource box is left intact.

Markets: Futures

Contact: Undisclosed. (I do have his e-mail address but it would be unfair to disclose it.)

Results:

Undisclosed but thought to be up there with the VERY best. He has made some of his managed account holders into multi-millionaires from small initial investments.

Featured in the books "The Market Wizards I and II"

Although completely unknown, not only to the public, but to most of the financial community as well, Ed Seykota’s achievements must certainly rank him as one of the best traders of our time. In the early 1970s, Seykota was hired by a major brokerage firm. He conceived and developed the first commercial computerized trading system for client’s money in the futures markets. His system proved quite profitable, but interference and second-guessing by management significantly impeded its performance. This experience provided the catalyst for Seykota going out on his own.

In the ensuing years, Seykota applied his systematized approach to trading a handful of accounts and his own money. During that period, the accounts Seykota managed have witnessed an absolutely astounding rate of return. For example, as of mid-1988, one of his customer’s accounts, which started with $5,000 in 1972, was up over 250,000 percent on a cash-to-cash basis. WOW!

Seykota works from an office in his house on Lake Tahoe. His trading is largely confined to the few minutes it takes to run his computer program, which generates signals for the next day.

So, don’t let any one ever tell you trading cannot be mechanical and you must spend hours per day managing your trading accounts. Ask Ed Seykota.

Get your Momentum Stock Trading System and sign up for my free weekly online trading system newsletter here at: http://www.stressfreetrading.com