The World Bank claims that some two billion of the world’s citizens live on $1 per day or less! That fact absolutely shocked me. With this statistic in mind it becomes important to focus on all of the things that have served as money over the history of civilization. Aztecs used Cocoa beans, Norwegians used Butter and dried cod, many Indian tribes used animal skins and some of the early colonists used grains. It’s worth thinking about this the next time you pick up your paycheck. The word "salary" is derived from the word SALT, which is what was the key currency of the North Africans for hundreds of years. SALT was a key commodity substance used for preserving food.

A butter and dried cod banking system? Reconciling your monthly bank statement must have been very messy!

I’ll take bear markets for $100 please Alec!

Anybody want to guess how we came to describe and define a BEAR market? Well, there is a debate on this one as most people feel that when a Bear makes a killing its claws move from up to down. However, bear markets are bone-chilling experiences. Markets always fall much faster than they rise! Anyway, the word "arctic" is derived from "arktos" which just so happens to be the Greek word for "BEAR!" And that is how it is believed that the word BEAR came to describe a declining market. Brrrrrrrrrrr..

Now you know!

Ok, why the heck do they call it Wall Street anyway?

It was the Dutch you see. They had just moved to Manhattan and had nowhere to build a dyke, so instead they built a wall. This was in 1653, and it wasn’t meant to keep water out, but was made to keep out the British and Indians. Easy enough for the Dutch, just a 12 foot high wood stockade that ran from river to river.

Then in 1685 they laid out Wall Street along the line of the stockade.

Now you know.

These days the average volume on the New York Stock Exchange is several hundred million shares. We have even seen numerous days when the volume exceeded over one billion shares. To give you an idea of how far we have come, the last date on record when the New York Stock Exchange traded less than one million shares was October 10, 1953. The very first day that the BIG BOARD traded over one million shares was December 15, 1886. On Black Tuesday, the BIG CRASH on 10/29/29 the market established Record volume of 16 million shares!

Now you know.

Gosh! One Billion Shares a day….that’s a lot of dried cod!

Dowjonesfully,
Harald Anderson
http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Harald Anderson is the founder and Chief Analyst of eOptionsTrader.com a leading online resource of Options Trading Information. He writes regularly for financial publications on Risk Management and Trading Strategies. His goal in life is to become the kind of person that his dog already thinks he is. http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Every stock market investor faces one primal enemy. An enemy so perverse, it will drive thousands of investors from the stock market through its ability to defeat even the most practiced investment strategy. Who is this enemy you ask? Your arch nemesis, in this case, goes by the name E. Motions…don’t ask me what the “E” stands for.

Emotions are the driving force behind every stock market cycle. Quite simply, if they weren’t present in the stock market, investors could be reaping rewards based solely on the expanding or receding economy, and professional traders wouldn’t have any juicy profits from those emotional mistakes to grab.

Here is an example scenario:

Let’s say that you’ve done your homework, read the books, traded on paper, and now you’re making your fondest dream come true by investing in the market and making money!

You maturely approach losses as part of the learning curve. You’ve experienced your share of them but your wins are still in the lead, thanks to the commitment you made of not deviating from your chosen strategy. Euphoria sits on your shoulder.

One day, after 3 frustrating hours in traffic, you get home to find changes. You know that you should follow your strategy, but Stress and Greed are in charge. You’re buying and selling outside your strategy, but are confident that it will be ok – just this once.

Now prices are dropping and Fear enters the room.

Fear attacks every investor’s self-confidence with a voracious need for control. You spend sleepless nights listening to his mantra - you don’t know what you’re doing.

Fear and Greed are now dictating the strategy. Self-confidence is on the critical list. Reason and Caution are under attack and are losing.

You ignore the primary investment rule of buying low, selling high because you’ve lost too much and have to recoup. You close your eyes and dive in to recover your losses. “It will work,” says Greed on your right. “It has to work!” responds Fear on your left.

Your partner has now entered the fray and is hounding you about the lost money. Your capital is almost gone. You erred grievously and invested money that you need now. Margin calls are being made. You’re out of control.

While the components of the above scenario will change, the catalyst of this nightmare remains the same – emotions. You’ll survive the nightmare, but the experience will forever change you. Fear will shade every future stock market decision and severely limit your ability to objectively evaluate any investment opportunity out of fear that you’ll lose again. But, it doesn’t have to be that way.

Developing a strategy to deal with emotions can give you a winning edge.

Here’s how:

Remember, the key isn’t denying or curbing your emotions, but instead understanding how they impact your investment decisions and developing a strategy to work with them.

Related Articles:

Are you overwhelmed by all of the online stock information on the net? One of these 2 articles may be of help:

Internet Stock Investing

Trading Stocks Online

About the Author:
Jeff Fairchild is the publisher of http://www.best-stock-trading-systems.com
The site includes tips, techniques, strategies, and systems designed around improving your stock trading profits.

When you become interested in a stock or mutual fund you can call your broker and he will send you reports on how the company is doing, what their management is like and what might be the projected earnings for the company and how the industry is doing. Great information.

You will apply yourself to this mound of papers to determine if you want to buy the equity. You might also send for more reports from independent analysts such as Morningstar. You will become buried in papers. That is what the brokerage company wants. The reason is very simple. If you buy the stock after doing all that research and it goes down instead of up they are not responsible for your stupidity. Of course, if it goes up they can take credit for providing all that great information.

Now let’s think for a minute. You received all that information that was already printed so it could be sent to you. It makes me ask when was that printed? How old is the information? If I can get all this stuff about the company it means that anyone can. What it boils down to is the information is just that - information and none of it will tell you that the stock will go up further because the whole world knows.

These brochures are made to help you BUY not SELL. In my years of experience I call them a work of fiction. No brokerage company is going to issue a bad report about a company at least until it is ready for bankruptcy and by then your investment dollars have disappeared.

I know your next question. If I can’t rely on those reports how am I going to buy anything? There is a better way. You will want to see the price action of the stock or mutual fund. All stocks undulate as they go up or down and you want to know the major trend.

On the Internet you can go to a web site www.bigcharts.com and type in the symbol of the stock or fund and request a weekly chart going back for about to 5 years. What you are interested in is what is it doing during the past 6 months to one year. If the trend is up it is a buy and if the trend is down or sideways don’t buy it or if you own it sell. See how easy that is. Brokers and financial planners won’t like it because it takes all the mystery out of buying stock and they don’t want you to know this simple procedure.

Analyst reports give you lots of useless information, but will not tell if the stock will go up after you buy it. If it isn’t going up don’t buy it.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

You should ignore analysts on TV, the radio, the newspaper and all other TALKING HEADS when it comes to investing! What stocks do they talk about? - The same old group, every day of every year - Why? Because they don’t know any better, they are sheep like the general public, repeating what every economic textbook says and every other economist tells them to say. Everyday, the same companies are highlighted on the evening news -

WHY?

They aren’t going anywhere. Some of the stocks that make the headlines every night were leaders of the market 20 years ago. New cycles bring new leaders; this has been proven year in and year out. So many of these TALKING HEADS shout out about "buy and hold" but what are they really holding? They hold old high-flyers that were superstars but have now become fallen stars that sit 20%, 50% or even 90% off of their all-time highs (some may have given you a small return - 10% or less over the past 5 years - WOW - BIG DEAL!). Yes, maybe over 15 or 20 years, you will get your money back - but what is the point? Many of these "so-called" investors tell you how they own XYZ stock and it has returned them 65% BUT they leave out the key factor that it has taken 16 years to get to that point.

One of the strongest and most promising stocks of the early 1900’s (1920 decade) was RCA - this stock was one that people claimed you put in your portfolio and hold it till near death - it will NEVER fall and if it does, hold on because it will come back. Well, let’s take a look: RCA soared over 1100% during the 1920’s and crashed with the rest of the market in the early 1930’s. It went from a low 0f $8.70 to a high of $106 to a crash level of $3.00. Some said to hold, some said buy on every dip. - Guess what, it didn’t climb back to pre-crash levels until 1963! 30 years to break even for some. Maybe that stock in your portfolio is the RCA of yesterday; history always repeats itself because human nature is always the same!

Stocks are worthy to be held over long periods of time, this is a proven fact but don’t EVER hold a stock when it is flashing SELL signals left and right (especially if everyone on TV is telling you to buy now on the dip, "it is a bargain"). These talking heads were saying this about every stock on their computer screen in 2000 and 2001 - "buy the dip". The only dip was the guy on TV and all of the suckers watching him/her. I don’t mean to offend anyone but you need to take control of your investing life, you need to learn why stocks go up, why they go down and that NO STOCK is immune to a bear market like the one we just had.

Leaders of the market now, won’t be leaders in the future - on some rare occasions, a stock here or there will defy everything and grow decade after decade, but even these stocks end their amazing rise at some point. Same is true for old leaders, they won’t lead the markets of today - they become too large and their growth slows, preventing them from being excellent growth stocks and giving you excellent returns. Now - I never said you couldn’t own a stock like this, many people are satisfied with these companies, they "feel secure", that is fine; everyone has different goals.

Let the market tell you what is going up or down. Watch "sister stocks", I talk about them in our education section of the website. What do I mean by sister stocks? They are stocks that are in the same industry. When an industry is strong, most of the stocks in this group will rise, hand in hand. (I say most - not all, laggards always stay behind). Fundamentals will be strong for most stocks in the group and technicals will guide you along the trip - think of technicals as a road map.

Once fundamentals have been established, check the charts, if several stocks from a particular group are breaking out of bases, this is a strong sign that something great is about to happen in this group. The more positive the overall market the better the group will perform (bear markets tend to hold down just about everyone). Why buy a stock that has great fundamentals in a weak group? If all other stocks in that group are acting weak, this may be telling you that the "one" bright spot in this group will eventually come back to the pack, so don’t chance it. Investing is about lowering your risk! Don’t take a risk on a stock that looks good but the industry is hurting.

Buy the leader of a group where several stocks are showing strength. Never buy the cheap stock that is lagging in performance, this is a sure way of losing money - buy the best of the group - the one with the best fundamentals (accelerating earnings, ROE, sales, etc.) and technicals (basing pattern, breakouts on huge volume, relative strength, etc…). What may look high to the general public; usually turns out to be low to the smart professional investor. I am not talking about the "talking heads" on TV - the smart investors work for institutions - they move the market! When they buy, everyone knows because volume jumps to extreme levels or levels not seen in prior months or years. The everyday guy doesn’t have this power - ONLY institutions have this power - learn to understand this power, here lies the smart money.

Finally, as I grind this educational information into your subconscious mind, ignore the "Talking Heads" and learn to listen to the market. Price and volume will always give you the best advice.

About the Author

Chris Perruna

http://www.marketstockwatch.com

Chris is the founder and CEO of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We don’t stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.

The date October 13, 2000 will forever be embedded in my mind. It was the day after our mutual fund trend tracking indicator had broken its long-term trend line and I sold 100% of my clients’ invested positions (and my own) and moved the proceeds to the safety of money market accounts. Some people thought we were nuts, but I had come to trust the numbers.

The shake out in the stock market, which started in April 2000, had all major indexes coming off their highs, violently followed by just as strong rally attempts. The roller coaster ride was so extreme that even usually slow moving mutual funds behaved as erratically as tech stocks.

By October, the markets had settled into a definable downtrend, at least according to my indicators. We sat safely on the sidelines and watched the unfolding of what is now considered to be one of the worst bear markets in history.

By April 2001 the markets really had taken a dive, but Wall Street analysts, brokers and the financial press continued to harp on the great buying opportunity this presented. Buying on dips, dollar cost averaging and “V” type recovery were continuously hyped to the unsuspecting public.

By the end of the year, and after the tragic events of 911, the markets were even lower and people began to wake up to the fact that the investing rules of the ‘90s were no longer applicable. Stories of investors having lost in excess of 50% of their portfolio value were the norm.

Why bring this up now? To illustrate the point that I have continuously propounded throughout the 90s; that a methodical, objective approach with clearly defined Buy and Sell signals is a “must” for any investor.

To say it more bluntly: If you buy an investment and you don’t have a clear strategy for taking profits if it goes your way, or taking a small loss if it goes against you, you are not investing; you are merely gambling.

The last 2-1/2 years clearly illustrate that it is as important to be out of the market during bad times, as it is to be in the market during good times. Want proof?

According to InvesTech’s monthly newsletter it turns out that, measuring from 1928 to 2002, if you started with $10 and you followed the famous buy-and-hold strategy, that $10 would become $10,957.

If you somehow missed the best 30 months, your $10 would only be $154. However, if you managed to miss the 30 worst months, your $10 would be $1,317,803! Thus, my point: Missing the worst periods has profound impact on long-run compounding. There are times when you end up better off by being out of the market.

Interestingly enough, if you missed the 30 best months and the 30 worst months, your $10 would still be worth $18,558, which is 80% higher than the buy-and-hold strategy. This all comes about because stock prices generally go down faster than they go up.

Wall Street and most people tend to overlook the value of minimizing loss, and that is exactly why the bear demolished more than 50% of many peoples’ portfolios while I and those who trusted my advice escaped the worst of the beast’s rampage.

About The Author

Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped hundreds of people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com; ulli@successful-investment.com

For weeks, no, months we have been bombarded with nothing but negative news about the economy in general and thousands of individual companies. The stock market has dropped thousands of points and more than $8 trillion in paper assets have disappeared.

Note I said paper assets because until you turn it into spendable money these numbers are but a figure on a piece of paper. Sure that doesn’t make you feel any better when you bought Lucent at $80 and have seen it go to 80 cents. You could have protected you profits or reduced your loss if you have placed an open stop-loss order with your broker. Brokers hate this, but YOU must protect you capital because he is not going to.

This past 2 weeks the bad news has continued to be shoveled out by the news media, but instead of making the market go down it has rallied about 1,000 points. Having been a floor trader for many years my experience with this kind of reaction tells me what is going on. The market is ignoring the bad stuff and has decided to go UP. Hooray! The traders are grasping at anything that looks bullish and not paying any attention to the negatives.

The market had become so oversold that almost anything will cause it to advance. Now you want to know if this is "the Bottom". No one can know for sure because the long -term trend remains down and is still in place. The voice of the market is now clearly saying, "I don’t want to go down for a while". It might even allow the stock prices to continue to rise. How far and for how long - don’t ask. No one knows. The stock market remains an enigma wrapped in a mystery. A few very astute (or lucky) folks are able to understand market language and make profits whether it goes up or down. Mr. Average Broker (also Mr. Average Financial Planner) has no idea what the market is saying. They have not taken the time to learn their trade.

Many times what is actually bad news makes the market go up. Here is one example. The weekly unemployment figure comes out to show there were 30,000 fewer jobs. That isn’t good news. The DOW jumps up 100 points. Huh? The Wall Street mavens were predicting job losses of 55,000 so this number is a blessing. See what I mean? It is not the actual news, but the difference in what was expected and what actually occurred. You can apply this to almost every statistic put out by important government and private agencies.

The same applies to good news that does not move the market up. What you think you see is not always what you get. Before you grasp any figure as either bullish or bearish find out what number was expected and wait for the reaction to it.

Bad news can be good news and visa versa.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

There has been great condemnation recently because China has been selling its goods on the world market at prices below what other countries, especially the U.S., can produce. It has been called exporting deflation.

The major reason for these extremely low prices has been their labor costs which I am told are about $100 per month for ordinary factory workers. Even factories in Mexico are being closed and shipped to China because of the labor differential. These extremes in production costs are literally putting many, many companies out of business. When you look at the labels in almost any store you will note the product is made in some Asian country. As far as you, the consumer, is concerned you are buying a product at a good value. Political considerations aside there is no question this has been beneficial to retail buyers.

Is there any reason China should act otherwise? No, they are acting like any businessman. Yes, I realize it is a country, but countries do the same as businesses just on a larger scale.

Suppose you and I each own a hamburger franchise. I have a McDonalds and you have a Berger King across the street. We each sell our hamburgers for 99 cents. The competition is equal. You also own a huge cattle ranch and slaughter house/packing plant as well as a large bakery and you want to increase your retail food business so you pass along the savings you make from the meat production and bakery to the burger stand. You reduce the price to 75 cents and now make a profit of 20 cents per burger whereas I only make 10 cents and must sell it for 99 cents. When someone wants a hamburger where do you think they will go?

I can scream all I want about how unfair this is, but so what. He is not selling at a loss and even if I lower my price I can’t go low enough to make a profit. I eventually will lose all my customers to him and will go out of business. Is that fair? Sorry, but fair doesn’t count. That’s business.

China is selling hamburgers (whatever) cheap, but they are of equal quality. Consumers want both quality and price (value) and don’t care where it comes from. Countries are complaining that they are selling "too cheap". No they are not because they are making a reasonable profit. One of their production tools (cheap labor) is so good that businesses from all over the world are moving there to take advantage of it. If they don’t they will be out of business. You can’t blame them.

Over the next 10 to 20 years China can become the world’s leading country because of their economic development. They don’t have the overhead (translation - central government, entitlement programs, lawyers, labor unions, etc.) we do so they will be able to keep costs down. Eventually (many years) their central government will slowly evolve toward giving more to their people, but it is going to be decades. In the meantime, learn to speak Chinese.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

On Friday or Saturday evening my wife gets a movie from Block Buster and after dinner we sit, hold hands and watch. This week she brought back one that I think every investor or anyone contemplating investing in the market should see. It is called "Boiler Room".

How many times have you been called out of the blue by some no-name broker who wants to make you rich provided you buy shares in this great new issue or some stock that is just about to "take off".

Usually they start off with do I remember he called me 6 months ago and recommended so-and-so issue that is currently in the news because it has gone up 100 or 200%. He did not make that call and if he had I am sure I would not remember it. Also the name of his firm is one I never heard of, but it sounds very legitimate and he might even say they are affiliated with Chase Manhattan Bank or some other big bank. They might have their checking account with that institution, but otherwise they have no connection with them. Now he has another recommendation that is going to do even better that that one. Yes, and pigs can fly!

If you haven’t done so yet don’t let him go any further. Hang up. Oh, I know you can’t because your mother taught you it is rude to hang up on people. Please, this time DON’T listen to your mother. He will try to get you into a conversation by asking simple questions that must be answered with a "Yes". Stop listening. If you can’t bring yourself to hang up then put the phone down and walk away. In 10 minutes he will be gone to call another sucker.

There really are boiler rooms out there selling worthless securities and everything they do is 100% within the law and 100% immoral. How do I know this? I used to own a brokerage firm and I received monthly reports from the regulatory agencies outlining charges against these shady dealers. Fortunately, I did not have those problems as I would not allow hype to open accounts.

The things being told on the phone are usually too good to be true and that is a fact. Do yourself a favor and rent that movie. Not all brokerage firms are like this, but remember my basic rule.

NEVER SEND MONEY TO A VOICE ON THE PHONE.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Have you bought any mutual funds this year or late last year while the market was doing its skyrocket thing? Last year it was hard to lose money. This year it has been easy.

You should be calling your mutual fund (they all have 800 numbers) to find out if and when they plan to pay their capital gains and dividends. You might say to yourself, they won’t be paying anything this year because the fund is selling for less now than it did at the beginning of the year. Think again. It is very probable that the mutual fund manager took profits on many high flyers that he bought cheap last year. According to the way funds are set up those profits are taxable to holders of the mutual fund and not to the fund itself.

It is possible you bought a fund at $40 per share that is now selling at $30 per share and be hit with a 25% capital gains distribution of $10. On paper you now have a $10 per share loss and a tax bill based on the $10 per share distribution. That is adding injury to insult.

With this as a possible scenario it might be prudent to sell your fund for less than you paid for it. You should work the numbers with your accountant to see if this might reduce your tax bill. But you have to do it now. You can’t wait until after the mutual fund declares its capital gains distribution. This is especially true if you have purchased any high tech or international funds during the past year. You can carry losses forward to next year to offset against profits and distributions next year.

The greatest numbers of mutual funds declare these distributions near the end of the year, usually starting in November with most of them in December. The rumors I hear are that the distributions will be early this year because of the poor performance of the majority of funds.

This applies to everyone who does not have a tax shelter of some kind such as a 401k, IRA, SEP or other similar investment vehicle.

One piece of advice I want you to heed. Don’t buy any mutual funds now because they are "cheap". Wait until after they declare their capital gains and dividend distributions. You could be whacked with a big tax bill.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Every day I hear someone on CNBC proclaim that "this is the bottom" and you should get in there and buy all those "bargains". "The valuations of the DOW stocks are a steal."

The low of DOW 8,000 immediately after September 11 was "the low" and the market did rally to about 10,700. That’s 2,700 points. A smart trader could have made a fortune in six months. Oops! Then there was a Brody to DOW 7500. That’s more than 3,000 points. That, for sure, is "the bottom". I heard them say so on TV and radio. It can’t go any lower. Can it?

There has been a 1,500 point rally, but there now seems to be another one of those ‘Oops’ taking place. What is going on anyway?

The great majority of the media are too young to remember the last bear market of 1973-74 when the S&P lost 43% and the Value Line index was down 75%. In the last 2 years this bear has seen the S&P500 index lose 50% and there does not seem to be any so-called bottom in sight. Yet investors are encouraged to buy "for the long haul". Even the staunchest Buy and Holders are finding out that they need to have loss limit orders in - a long time ago. There is such a thing as market timing.

What has been happening is the market is making a correction of the excesses of the 18-year bull market from 1982 to 2000. If it took 18 years to reach the top then how long will it take to get to the bottom? I wish I knew. The predictions run from today to 15 years hence. Japan’s bear just celebrated (?) it’s 19-year low. From 1920 to 1980 there were 3 bull markets that lasted about 16 years and each was followed by bear markets that hung on for about an equal length of time.

As a technical analyst I have not seen anything that makes me believe we are near "the bottom".

And when that happens will the market take off on another bull run? Not very likely as the little guy will be broke and so shook up from his losses he will vow to "never play the market again". That very thing has taken place at the bottom of every major bear market. In 1932 it was more than a generation before investor confidence returned. Am I implying this could be another 1929-32? Anything is possible with the stock market. No broker will ever tell you that cash is a position. Cash at zero percent interest is better than losing 20% each year.

They might be having a big garage sale on Wall Street today, but I prefer to keep my money in my pocket - or maybe under the mattress.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005