In November of 2000 when the NASDAQ was trading at 3000 I wrote in this column that the NASDAQ Index would fall to 1500 and I got lots of heat for saying it. Microsoft had fallen from $129 to $60 per share. You know where they are today.

The talking heads on CNBC-TV and many of the radio stock experts are convinced we are headed back up as soon as this small “correction” is over – and they could be right, but I seem to remember their former predictions just before the major stock indexes went over the edge of Financial Niagara Falls. Can it happen again since the market has fallen so far?

For a year the DOW has been creeping higher. The NASDAQ has gained back about 40%, but please remember the NASDAQ Index is not composed of the same stocks as it was 3 years ago and neither is the DOW. Many companies went bankrupt and others have been delisted because they do not meet the criteria to remain on the board.

Too many investors have not done their homework. Most of them only know the great bull market of 1982 to 2000. The same goes for brokers. Almost none have ever seen a bear market. I call the mutual fund managers ‘children’ because most of them were in diapers during the last bear of l972-74 and they discount the sudden break of 1987 as an aberration. What it amounts to is they have no idea of what to do when the brown stuff hits the fan.

It is a shame that brokers are not taught the basics of how to protect customers’ money and same goes for mutual fund managers. Scores of mutual funds went out of business during the last break and others were absorbed by their big brothers in large fund families.

The market rarely crashes as it did in 1987 and usually erodes away as it did in 1972-74. Current investors have never been told about secular bull and secular bear markets that last about 16 to 18 years in each direction. During those down or at best sideways periods investors are happy to break even. This is a historical fact that you can check back for a hundred years.

If we are in this 16 years down that started in 2000 do you have a plan as to what to do to protect your financial well being? Most people don’t and they refuse to accept the idea that anything like another loss of 80% can occur. Brokers don’t have a plan. Fund managers don’t have a plan. Do you have a plan? If you don’t it is time to start thinking how you can protect what you have now. The most important thing about any investment is not to lose money.

The market today has the potential for another 2000 break. Now is the time to protect your investments. Get your stocks and mutual funds out and if you have any that have lost more than 10 or even 20% from their highest price it would be wise to sell them and remain in cash. NASDAQ 800 may not be far away.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

One of the big advertising kicks today from mutual funds is to tell how low their expense ratio is and that you will make a great deal more money if you buy and hold with them. Partly true, but that is not the whole story.

What is the expense ratio? It is all their overhead including but not limited to all the managers and other employees salaries, rent, computers, utilities, travel (the fund manager says he has to visit a company in Florida in the winter to see how it is doing), advisory services, telephone, etc., etc, etc. Oops, and don’t forget the manager’s bonus whether he makes money for you or not. If the fund has one billion (yes, that’s a B) that means they can spend $10,000,000 on expenses and no one will complain because it is a tiny 1%.

At some point expenses just about stop going up as you don’t need very many more people to manage the paper work for a billion than you do for 250 million. The fund manager’s duties remain the same just the size of the orders he places changes. Actually as a fund grows in size its expenses should automatically come down as a percent of assets, but you will find that is not the case for many funds. They keep sticking it to their investors who don’t have any idea how egregious this is.

The larger the fund family the lower should be their expenses per fund as they can outsource from the fund to a central billing and customer service desk.

Vanguard Funds has more than 100 individual funds in its family and they brag on how low is their expense ratio. It should be as they have more than 720 Billion spread out over those funds. They keep their expenses low and at only 1/2% they can charge about 360 million to offset their overhead.

Many funds run very high expenses. This is especially true for new and smaller funds, but as they take in more money they can spread their expenses and lower their ratios. One of the recent criticisms of funds is they have been making extra charges labeled 12B-1 that are supposed to be expressly for promotion to bring in new customers. Unfortunately, some (not all) of the fund managers have been pocketing this. If this does bring in new money then the expense ratio should fall and again in many cases it has not.

Investors expect fund managers to be honest. When large sums of money are at stake it seems to bring out the worst. That real nice fund manager turns into a hungry wolf and the investor becomes one of the 3 little pigs that did not escape.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

If you haven’t heard of the technical indicator with the stock market symbol VIX it is now time to pay some attention to it. When the number is running low, as it is now, around 15 to 18 it means everyone is happy and thinks the stock market is going to continue up or at least continue on its current path and there is no need to sell anything. This is a measure of complacency. When the number goes above 35 it means everyone is very nervous and thinks the market is going to fall. It is considered a contrarian indicator.

Wall Street calls this the Volatility Index which disguises its real underlying meaning. What it really should be called is the FEAR and GREED Index.

The average investor buys with a greed motive when the VIX is low and sells only after fear sets in when the number is high because he is afraid of further loss. These are emotional moments and the market is an emotional animal. The truly smart investor has a planned exit strategy before he buys anything; he knows when to sell even before he buys.

Notice that the higher and smoother the movement of the market the more complacent the investors become. The investor becomes overconfident that his stocks will always go up. It is a truism that investors buy with only thoughts of how much they will make and never consider that it is possible to lose. When I was a broker and a member of the exchange I would only keep customers who would place stop-loss orders as soon as they bought something. I always stressed protection of capital.

When you are a serious and reasoning investor you must always think about loss first. If what you buy goes up you don’t have to worry. Winning takes care of itself. Losses don’t.

As of March 26, 2004 the VIX can now be traded like a stock. If the VIX is currently 18.5 the value of the contract is $18,500 and trades in $10 increments. It can be very volatile; a move from 18 to 38 can make (or lose if you are short) $20,000. This is not for the feint of heart and should be left to the professional speculators.

When you look at the historical charts and run a comparison of both the VIX and the S&P500 Index you will see the inverse correlation. As the S&P goes up the VIX goes down and visa versa.

There are many technical indicators that are used to determine market direction and this is just one of the many. It can be part of your analysis if you are a technician along with moving averages, various ratios and other stratagems.

Whatever you do do NOT become complacent about the money you have invested in your 401K or any other stock market investment. Protection of your capital is always your first consideration.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

When it comes to buying a stock or mutual fund most people act pretty quickly. There are some who will take the time to get a report from Morningstar (it is worthless) or get reports from their broker (also worthless) or even do a search on the Internet (if you know what you are doing). When your broker says “buy” you buy and when a friend gives you a “tip” you buy.

Any fool can buy. It is the wise man who knows how to sell. One of the old masters of the market Bernard Baruch used to say, “I sell too soon”, but he died a multimillionaire.

There is a reason folks are slow to sell. They fall in love with their position and know all the reasons why they should hold on. “My broker said it will come back”. And pigs can fly.

With all these symptoms that have turned into syndrome diseases like acid reflux for which there is one of those purple pills to cure you in a hurry. When you buy a stock or mutual fund that doesn’t go up or, worse yet, goes down we need one of those purple pills. People have contracted Inertia Syndrome.

The symptoms are terrible. Each day as you look on the financial page of your paper and see your stock has gone down another point your stomach begins to act up and you need one of those pills. You keep putting off going to the doctor (broker) to tell him to sell so your symptoms will go away, but you don’t. Things continue to get worse and worse until your money is almost all gone. Then you decide to sell. By then it is too late. What should you have done?

When it comes to your health you can change your diet and stop eating all those lovely sweet gooies that have no nutrition. When you own a stock like that and you lose sleep the best thing to do is to get rid of it. Maybe you have a profit and you are seeing it disappear. There is a way to relieve yourself.

Most people don’t know when to sell so the best thing to do is have the market tell you. It is very easy. The first rule for making money in the market is to cut your losses short. As soon as you buy any stock or fund you must decide how much you are willing to risk. Five percent? Ten percent. Fifteen percent? That number should be calculated from the closing high of the move or never lower than where you bought it. If you paid $50 per share your risk should be no more than $5.00 per share.

To overcome Inertia Syndrome put the medicine in play as soon as you buy your position by using an Open Stop Loss Order. By limiting your risk you will never have a really bad belly ache.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

There is no question that the stock market is being affected by war jitters. When it looks like peace we have a strong rally. When it looks like shooting will begin momentarily the market takes a dump. What should you do with your stock, mutual funds or cash that is waiting to find a home?

Back when I was a floor trader we had a saying “When in doubt get out”. And that applies just as strongly today to everyone whether you area professional trader or a retired person living off your equity income.

You might say that I am not a trader or speculator so I won’t do anything. Let me clarify what you really are. You are a speculator whether you want to admit it or not. The only thing that separates you from the floor trader who is scalping for a few ticks and someone who has thousands of dollars in a retirement account is the time frame. If all you do is buy and hold you still are a speculator. You are hoping the market will come back. Your broker told you so.

What your broker did not tell you is that long-term bull markets are followed by long-term bear markets of equal length. Because we have been in a long-term bull from 1982 to 2000 the mindset of the investor has become conditioned to believe the every correction will see another new high. That is true, but can you afford to wait that long? In the crash of 1929 – ’32 it took almost 25 years to see a new high in the market averages. Do you have that much time? Also folks don’t remember that many companies went out of business so your “average” went out the window.

With the market so precariously perched it might be best to stand aside with your cash in your hand or under your mattress. When the Iraq war starts we could see a 1,000-point move – and it could be either direction. What kind of a gambler are you? We’ll see.

Ask yourself this question: Is this bear market caused by Iraq? Back in 2000 no one knew where Iraq was on the map much less were able to spell Baghdad. We can’t blame Saddam for the loss of about 50% of market equity. When it comes right down to it the Iraq war is just another event in a long-term bear market just as 9/11 was. Events do trigger violent moves, but the overall trend is what is important and now that is down.

Another old saying is ‘don’t fight the trend’. War or no war the safest place for your money is not in equities during this down phase. Cash or bonds are the only place to be.

Are you ready for the next violent move?

Al Thomas

Author of "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!"

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

Humpty Dumpty had a great fall and all the King’s horsemen could not put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

The Stock Market has had a great fall and all the brokers, CEOs, analysts and politicians have not been able to get it back up again.

Oh, it will go up again, but if history has a way of repeating it will be a long time before we see it at “even”. From 1920 to the present there have been 3 major bull markets lasting close to 16 years. Unfortunately, each has been followed by a bear market of about the same length of time. So far we are ending the 3rd year of the projected down cycle with only 13 more years to get to the bottom. It is a long way off.

At a recent investment seminar one of the speakers asked his large audience if they believed the stock market would be higher 5 years from now. Every one except one thought it would be. The current mindset of most investors believes this also. For the period from 1982 to 2000 (18 years, close enough) there has been a bull market. Every investor has considered himself to be a financial genius during that time. There is an old saying, “The market makes fools of us all – sooner or later”.

Unless you learn to listen to what the market is saying and not your broker, you will be able to recoup some of your losses, but probably not all. During this long-term bear called a secular bear market, your main effort will not be to make money but to keep from losing more. During a bear market the one who loses the least is a winner. You may not like what I say, but history has that strange way of doing it over and over.

Maybe I am wrong about it because “this time it is different”. I hope so, but you can protect your money in your 401K or elsewhere with a simple loss limit order. Call your broker and have him place a 10% (or whatever number your prefer) stop-loss order on all your positions. That way you don’t guess about where to sell; you let the market tell you when it has turned weak.

Brokers and brokerage companies hate stop-loss orders and will try to talk you out of it. Ask him if he will guarantee your portfolio. You can bet he isn’t that dumb. It is your money. Once it is gone you will have very little chance of getting it back. Protect what you have left.

Don’t be a Humpty Dumpty!

Al Thomas

Author of "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!"

Never lose money in the stock market again.

http://www.mutualfundmagic.com

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are growing. Investors are choosing low annual expense and market return over high annual expense and promised performance.

Total ETF inflow is growing faster than Mutual Fund inflow. ETF inflow grew from $42.5 billion in 2000 to $54.4 billion in 2004. In contrast, mutual fund inflow fell from $309.4 billion in 2000 to $180.3 billion in 2004. Standard & Poors Depositary Receipts Trust (SPY) is the largest and oldest ETF. From the one fund SPY started in 1993 the number of ETFs has grown to 150 in 2004.

Growth of ETFs is fueled by investors searching for market performance. About 20% of conventional mutual funds do beat the market. The puzzle is which funds will win, in the future. ETFs, on the other hand, have a reasonably good record of matching the performance of their underlying index. For instance, in 2004, SPY value grew 10.92% and the value of the underlying S&P 500 index grew at 10.88%. The promise of the conventional mutual fund is that it will deliver superior results. The promise of the ETF is that it will match the performance of its underlying index.

Expense for ETFs is less than for conventional mutual funds. A prime reason for the mutual funds’ higher expense is that pros perceived capable of superior results are more expensive than technicians paid to duplicate the holdings of an index. ETFs are passive investments and don’t require the active management of pros. Investors moving money from mutual funds to ETFs are trading promised performance and high expense for market returns and low annual expense. ETFs generally have expense ratios below 1. SPY’s expense ratio is .12. Expense ratio is percent of assets consumed by fees annually.

Investors sticking with mutual funds have a couple of things going for them. Eliot Spitzer has used his New York State Office of Attorney General to scare/shame mutual funds into minding fiduciary duties to their investors. The growth of ETFs is pressuring mutual funds to reduce their expenses and to introduce ETFs mimicking mutual funds. Investors sticking with mutual funds might benefit from the growth of ETFs. However, mutual funds might have a hard time delivering. Slowing growth or actual decline in fund size will make it difficult to reduce their expenses enough to keep investors happy. The more investors defect the fewer left to share the expense.

ETFs trade like stock equities. They can be bought and sold whenever the market is open. They can be shorted, purchased on margin, and optioned. Most brokers charge a commission for every buy and sell transaction. This can be a problem for small investors building a portfolio with monthly contributions. There is at least one broker that charges an annual fee rather than per trade commissions.

ETFs are passive. They only trade when changes are made to the composition of the underlying index. Fewer trades mean less tax consequence. Mutual funds often have taxable capital gains, sometimes even in years when the fund has declined in value (sell winners and hold losers).

That 20% of mutual funds beat the market is a premise. It assumes multiply years and a market defined as the S&P 500. Meg Richards writing for The Associated Press reported that for 2004:

- The S&P500 bested 61.6% of actively managed large-cap funds.

- The S&P400 bested 61.8% of actively managed mid-cap funds.

- The S&P600 bested 85% of actively managed small-cap funds.

The probability of a mutual fund having beaten the market in 2004 is low. Of course, relative performance changes from year to year. Relative performance, of active versus passive management, changes. Relative performance, of individual actively managed funds, changes.

The best ETFs strategy for small, beginning, busy investors is to ‘buy and hold’ SPY. If you are bigger, experienced, or have time on your hands you can try a more active strategy. A strategy that beat the S&P500 over the last three years is to hold equal amounts of five large diversified ETFs and rebalance weekly. This strategy is in some ways just an expansion of our definition of ‘the market’ beyond the S&P500. This strategy since inception 3 years ago has beaten the S&P500 just over 1% annualized. This small gain means rebalancing weekly is only viable when it is without trading cost. A more aggressive strategy is to monitor 50 ETFs and hold the most oversold, rebalancing weekly. This strategy since inception 2/27/04 has beat the S&P500 by 16%.

Remember. ETFs’ popularity is on the rise. They trade like stocks. They have lower annual expense than mutual funds. Their objective is to mimic the performance of an index. They don’t beat or lose to the market, they are the market. It is usually best for low maintenance, ‘buy and hold’ investors to define the market as broadly as possible.

Lyle Wilkinson, investor, trader, author, MBA Helps individuals learn to self direct their stock portfolios. Book, e-book, PowerPoint "DIY Portfolio Management” http://www.diyportfoliomanagement.com lyle@diyportfoliomanagement.com

We need a rabbit!

This was a pretty horrible week for the market with two 100-point days and Friday closing on the lows.

During these past few days Sir Alan told us things are looking up and the economy is basically strong. Mr. Market didn’t hear him. It seems that jaw boning can’t get people to buy. In fact there were more sellers than buyers.

If you go back in history it is a truism that has become conventional wisdom that the stock market goes up during an election year. The reasoning is obvious. The president - who ever he is - in office will pull out all the stops to create the illusion that the economy is in good shape and he is the one who takes credit for it. Both Mr. Bush and the Fed chairman better get their best top hat out and reach way down for that white rabbit.

It is going take some real magic to get folks in a buying mood. The lower it goes the less likely they are to buy. Of course, brokers are calling and telling investors, “This is the break to buy. Stocks are cheap. Better get on board now. You can’t let this opportunity pass by. You can’t afford to be out of the market.” And on and on with the platitudes. Don’t believe any of that hog wash.

What brokers should be telling investors is to protect their money by placing stop loss orders. You can be sure that won’t happen. The big brokerage firms frown on stops and punish brokers who encourage customers to use them. Fortunately, when I was a broker I worked for company that did not penalize this concept and I refused to take a customer who would not place stops when they bought something. That is why I never lost customers and had them for years.

This year the major indexes (DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ) are down. Not a great deal, but definitely lower. This means for those who invest in index mutual funds that they are running a loss. Brokers always say, “You are in for the long haul” so not to worry about what is happening now. That’s what they told you in 2000 and you still have not recovered your losses from then.

No brokerage firm tells the true story of the secular bull and bear markets. These have occurred with great regularity for the past 200 years and will, if history continues to repeat, follow the same course. The shortest secular bear has been 8 years and the longest 25 years. At a minimum we are not half way through this one. Prudent investors (and I hope that’s you) will protect their portfolios with stop loss protection on every position. Every broker and financial planner will advise against it, but it your money not theirs.

The market is not magic. Hocus pocus and white rabbits will not make it go up for very long. Illusions are not where it’s at. Forget the brokers’ abracadabras and place your stop loss protection today.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

1-888-345-7870; al@mutualfundstrategy.com

Both the stock market and oil prices rallied recently, which seems to be a paradox, because high oil prices are negative for earnings (i.e. a higher production cost and a higher consumer tax). However, the stock market was worried about another "soft patch," of slower economic growth, and the sharp rise in oil prices suggest the U.S. economy is still expanding at above trend growth.

The two charts below are same period daily charts of SPX and OIH. The short-term technical indicators suggest SPX is near a top, e.g. VIX closing at a multi-year low, VXN closing at an all-time low, and the NYSE Oscillator’s 20 day MA at an extreme level. Also, Nasdaq closed at 2,090 Fri, and 2,100 is major resistance. SPX rallied to 1,219.5 Fri, and 1,220 may be resistance. SPX may be creating a bearish head & shoulders pattern, with the left shoulder at 1,217.9, the head at 1,229.1, and the right shoulder at 1,220 (see chart). SPX may pullback, consolidate, and become more volatile next week. Major support is about 1,200, the current 20 day MA, which SPX held over the rally, and 1,200, in general, which is psychological support and a congestion area. Major resistance is at 1,220 and 1,229 (the recent high).

OIH closed at an all-time high and created a bearish hammer Fri. Major resistance is Fri’s high at 104. Major support is at 100.30 (previous highs), and the 10 day MA, currently at 99 1/4. There’s also an open gap at just below 95 1/2, and Jul Max Pain is still 95. OIH rose about 20 points, while oil rose from $47 to about $59 a barrel. Consequently, if oil falls to the low $50s, then OIH may retrace 50% of the 20 point rise. The steep rise (also, see MACD) suggests a consolidation period soon. Both the RSI and Oscillator (ULT) are severely overbought, particularly for an index.

Perhaps, the oil market has discounted future events that would influence oil prices, e.g. stonger than expected global growth, the start of hurricane season Jun 1st, which may affect oil platforms and refineries in the Gulf, end-of-the-quarter window dressing, and the 4th of July holiday, which is the start of the summer driving season. Also, I may add, the U.S. oil strategic reserve is filled up. So, the federal government isn’t draining oil from the market. Moreover, China’s economy is "overheating," and it’s to China’s benefit to grow at a sustainable rate, to prevent inefficiencies.

Next week is a light economic and earnings data week. So, oil prices may have a more influencial effect on stock prices. Consequently, SPX puts, for example, may hedge OIH puts. Both SPX and OIH are at high levels. Economic reports next week are: Mon: Leading Economic Indicators, Thu: Unemployment Claims and Existing Home Sales, and Fri: Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. Also, the U.S. weekly oil inventory data Wed should move oil prices. I believe, the positive correlation in stocks and oil will decouple next week, because the longer oil prices stay high, the more negative it will affect earnings of non-energy stocks. Arthur Eckart, PeakTrader.com

See PeakTrader.com Market Overview section in Forum Index for charts.

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past three years.

Analyzing growth stocks is an important focus for any investor. This is especially important, since stocks are an irreplaceable part of any good investment plan, and since unbiased stock research is hard to find. Still, we need to look at the big picture once in a while. Since so much has changed lately, this may be a good time to “take stock”. Many have reevaluated their investment strategies. The problem is that many of these reevaluations are moving people away from their goals. As the market has dropped, rather than moving toward buying at the cheaper prices, we’ve seen people move away from stocks, a strategy which has little long-term benefit.

THE PICTURE

It’s all about planning for the future. The first step is to picture the future you have in mind. Most of us already have part of the picture in our sights. We picture ourselves in a home, with food, heat, clothing — the necessities. Beyond the basics, some of us may picture ourselves raising a family and possibly supporting our kids’ education or business ventures or helping them buy their first home. Others may imagine supporting a church or charity, or accomplishing some great humanitarian goal. Most imagine some type of vacation at least once in a lifetime, or a personal goal that we’ve always wanted to achieve. Regardless of specifics, trying to get as clear a picture of your intentions as possible is an important first step. Once we know where we’re going, we can begin mapping our path

THE PLAN

Those who fail to plan, have already planned to fail. It is nearly impossible to reach a goal if there’s no strategy in place. Of course, there are a variety of personal decisions and trade-offs involved in any plan, and only a portion of these involve finances. Let’s focus here on the financial dimension of the plan, because the financial decisions are often the ones that prevent us from reaching our goals. Financial decisions are never easy, and the issues quite often reach to the core of our being. They involve our deepest values, our choices of what is most important in our lives. If other people are involved in our life, we need to balance our values with those of our families.

Creating the financial plan involves three steps: goal-setting, measurement and implementation.

Goal-setting requires us to determine both the specific achievements we desire and the timing of these achievements. For example, it is not enough to know that we want to own a 1000 square foot home on the beach in Hawaii. We must also identify any time-frames we have in mind. Measurement requires us to evaluate the cost of our goals, and determine our pacing. We must figure out what it will take, then, based upon our timing needs, pace our plan by calculating what the per-year savings must be and the growth rate our saving must achieve to accomplish that goal. Pacing for our goals is the most technical portion of the planning process, and often where people fall down on the job. Inflation in the economy is a complicating factor here too. If we don’t take inflation into account, a long-term plan is often doomed. Imagine someone who saved up for 30 years to buy a house, ignoring inflation. She’d have saved up $25,000, and wouldn’t be able to afford anything. Her cost calculation must recognize that money loses value over time. Making these calculations can seem intimidating for the inexperienced. We have charts and graphs that we use to assist our clients in making these judgments, but for those who aren’t nearby, the American Savings Education Council has some excellent resources on the web that are fairly simple to use.

Once we’ve gone to the trouble of learning precisely what we need to achieve our goals, its time to begin translating these specifics into an action plan. This is part of the plan implementation. The implementation stage requires us to determine the best way to reach our (now very specific) goals. The factors we will need to look at include income levels, savings decisions, and investment strategies.

Alas, this is all part of the next installment in this column. Stay tuned.

To send comments or to learn more about Scott Pearson’s Investment Management Services, visit http://www.valueview.net

Scott Pearson is an investment advisor, writer, editor, instructor, and business leader. As President and Chief Investment Officer of Value View Financial Corp., he offers investment management services to a wide variety of clients. His own newsletter, Investor’s Value View, is distributed worldwide and provides general money tips and investment advice to readers both internationally, and in the U.S.