I made my very first investment in the stock market when I was ten years old. Ever since then I have been hooked! Now I check out hundreds of trades each year with the same excitement andenthusiasm, and each time try to find that one market at the right time that could dramatically create wealth.

If you would’ve been fortunate enough to invest $1,000 in Microsoft when it first came public, that initial investment would be worth close to $300,000 today. In the last 10 years America Online has been up 12,000% and it has come creashing lower as well! Although statistics like this are advocated regularly by journalists and brokers the majority of investors have a very difficult time staying in an investment for that long of a period of time even though they know they are in a good company The financial markets are a never ending source of temptation trying to lure you into a new position with each passing second. The belief that the grass is always greener in another market is a distraction that every investor eventually has to contend with. Even if you are a MUTUAL FUND investor the fact is that you are always looking for the BEST return available.

Years ago when I worked as a broker I was confronted with this dilemma. One of my clients told me that he knew the BIG MONEY was made in holding on for the LONG TERM but that he liked trading the short term swings. He asked my advice and I had to think long and hard for several days before I could respond.

Eventually, I presented him with the following strategy that literally combines the best of the TRADER and INVESTOR worlds. Traders are looking for the quick hit and run. Investors seek their advantage by looking at the long term. Long term investors quite often benefit from allowing dividends to be reinvested into purchasing more stock in the company and the very real possibility of the stock splitting in the future. If you combine both of these apparently opposite perspectives you end up with a very unique viewpoint that eliminates a lot of stress associated with decision making. This strategy will bring home the perspective that within every seed that you plant in the financial markets lies the promise of ten thousand forests. I refer to it as my FOREST STRATEGY! It is another way to make your short term efforts as a trader pay you dividends by also recognizing the importance and significance of long term investing.

Let’s say that your initial investing capital is $10,000. 1) Find a company, preferably in the Standard and Poors 500 Index that you understand and are familiar with. If you want to narrow down your group you can select companies that are in the Dow Jones Industrial Average which include only 30 stocks. These are established companies with long financial histories that can be researched to your hearts delight.

2) Study the companies Price Earnings Ratio. Where is the Price Earnings ratio now? What has been The highest and lowest points of the price earnings ratio over the last five years? Look to buy a company with a historically low price earnings ratio that is a leader in its industry. Use the Price Earnings Ratio as a guide. Don’t try to pick bottoms. 3) Look at a chart of prices to see what has happened recently and to determine where a good buy point is.

4) Place your trade with the intention of a 10% profit objective. Once you reach your profit objective, sell enough shares in the company to remove your initial $10,000 investment and only leave your $1,000 profit in that stock.

5) Repeat steps 1-3 as you search for another company to trade for a 10% profit and plant the Remainder for the long term.

6) Repeat, Repeat, Repeat.

The drawback on this type of trading is that when you are with a great company you do give up a lot of upside. However, if you look at the PROBABILITIES how many IBM’s, Aol’s, Yahoos! Or Microsofts are there out there in relation to the entire universe of stocks? What I personally like about this style of trading is that it eliminates the GREED factor that most investors have of trying to hold on for the top tick. Secondly it also allows you to build a nice diversified portfolio. Thirdly, trading becomes a very fun game with potentially lucrative long term implications. It is very possible to trade this way once a month planting a seed in a quality company that can easily become a Forest of Wealth for you.

Some trades might take the better part of a year to pan out. Some trades might achieve your profit objective in a matter of weeks or days if you are really fortunate.. Keep in mind that you still have to manage your risk on each and every trade. Let me be perfectly blunt, if you don’t manage your downside there will not be an UPSIDE… It is acceptable to use any of the RISK Management Techniques that I advocate by doing Partial Covered Calls and other Option Selling Techniques. When done correctly those techniques can dramatically accelerate your returns.

I must admit that I truly enjoy this type of trading. (My broker likes it as well as it generates many more commissions for him.) However, part of the reason that this method sits well with me is that I hardly pay any attention at all to my profits after I take them. It becomes very stress free to know that you have increased your wealth 10% and are just interested in planting seeds all over the financial landscape in companies that meet your criteria. I must however stress the point that you make sure that you are aware of the downside. This method is by no means RISK FREE….but for the individual who likes to trade and invest simultaneously it truly is ideal.

Guard your investment principal at all costs and let your profits run. Just one more way to look at the bigger picture. Kind of like a Johnny Appleseed meets the financial markets. Many extremely successful investors do this with Initial Public Offerings as well. Study away.and remember,let’s be careful out there.

Dowjonesfully-
Harald Anderson
http://www.eOptionsTrader.com

Harald Anderson is the founder and Chief Analyst of eOptionsTrader.com a leading online resource of Options Trading Information. He writes regularly for financial publications on Risk Management and Trading Strategies. His goal in life is to become the kind of person that his dog already thinks he is. http://www.eOptionsTrader.com.

Among the largest forces that affect stock prices are inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities and currencies. At times the stock market suddenly reverses itself followed typically by published explanations phrased to suggest that the writer’s keen observation allowed him to predict the market turn. Such circumstances leave investors somewhat awed and amazed at the infinite amount of continuing factual input and infallible interpretation needed to avoid going against the market. While there are continuing sources of input that one needs in order to invest successfully in the stock market, they are finite. If you contact me at my web site, I’ll be glad to share some with you. What is more important though is to have a robust model for interpreting any new information that comes along. The model should take into account human nature, as well as, major market forces. The following is a personal working cyclical model that is neither perfect nor comprehensive. It is simply a lens through which sector rotation, industry behavior and changing market sentiment can be viewed.

As always, any understanding of markets begins with the familiar human traits of greed and fear along with perceptions of supply, demand, risk and value. The emphasis is on perceptions where group and individual perceptions usually differ. Investors can be depended upon to seek the largest return for the least amount of risk. Markets, representing group behavior, can be depended upon to over react to almost any new information. The subsequent price rebound or relaxation makes it appear that initial responses are much to do about nothing. But no, group perceptions simply oscillate between extremes and prices follow. It is clear that the general market, as reflected in the major averages, impacts more than half of a stock’s price, while earnings account for most of the rest.

With this in mind, stock prices should rise with falling interest rates because it becomes cheaper for companies to finance projects and operations that are funded through borrowing. Lower borrowing costs allow higher earnings which increase the perceived value of a stock. In a low interest rate environment, companies can borrow by issuing corporate bonds, offering rates slightly above the average Treasury rate without incurring excessive borrowing costs. Existing bond holders hang on to their bonds in a falling interest rate environment because the rate of return they are receiving exceeds anything being offered in newly issued bonds. Stocks, commodities and existing bond prices tend to rise in a falling interest rate environment. Borrowing rates, including mortgages, are closely tied to the 10 year Treasury interest rate. When rates are low, borrowing increases, effectively putting more money into circulation with more dollars chasing after a relatively fixed quantity of stocks, bonds and commodities.

Bond traders continually compare interest rate yields for bonds with those for stocks. Stock yield is computed from the reciprocal P/E ratio of a stock. Earnings divided by price gives earning yield. The assumption here is that the price of a stock will move to reflect its earnings. If stock yields for the S&P 500 as a whole are the same as bond yields, investors prefer the safety of bonds. Bond prices then rise and stock prices decline as a result of money movement. As bond prices trade higher, due to their popularity, the effective yield for a given bond will decrease because its face value at maturity is fixed. As effective bond yields decline further, bond prices top out and stocks begin to look more attractive, although at a higher risk. There is a natural oscillatory inverse relationship between stock prices and bond prices. In a rising stock market, equilibrium has been reached when stock yields appear higher than corporate bond yields which are higher than Treasury bond yields which are higher than savings account rates. Longer term interest rates are naturally higher than short term rates.

That is, until the introduction of higher prices and inflation. Having an increased supply of money in circulation in the economy, due to increased borrowing under low interest rate incentives, causes commodity prices to rise. Commodity price changes permeate throughout the economy to affect all hard goods. The Federal Reserve, seeing higher inflation, raises interest rates to remove excess money from circulation to hopefully reduce prices once again. Borrowing costs rise, making it more difficult for companies to raise capital. Stock investors, perceiving the effects of higher interest rates on company profits, begin to lower their expectations of earnings and stock prices fall.

Long term bond holders keep an eye on inflation because the real rate of return on a bond is equal to the bond yield minus the expected rate of inflation. Therefore, rising inflation makes previously issued bonds less attractive. The Treasury Department has to then increase the coupon or interest rate on newly issued bonds in order to make them attractive to new bond investors. With higher rates on newly issued bonds, the price of existing fixed coupon bonds falls, causing their effective interest rates to increase, as well. So both stock and bond prices fall in an inflationary environment, mostly because of the anticipated rise in interest rates. Domestic stock investors and existing bond holders find rising interest rates bearish. Fixed return investments are most attractive when interest rates are falling.

In addition to having too many dollars in circulation, inflation can also be increased by a drop in the value of the dollar in foreign exchange markets. The cause of the dollar’s recent drop is perceptions of its decreased value due to continuing national deficits and trade imbalances. Foreign goods, as a result, can become more expensive. This would make US products more attractive abroad and improve the US trade balance. However, if before that happens, foreign investors are perceived as finding US dollar investments less attractive, putting less money into the US stock market, a liquidity problem can result in falling stock prices. Political turmoil and uncertainty can also cause the value of currencies to decrease and the value of hard commodities to increase. Commodity stocks do quite well in this environment.

The Federal Reserve is seen as a gate keeper who walks a fine line. It may raise interest rates, not only to prevent inflation, but also to make US investments remain attractive to foreign investors. This particularly applies to foreign central banks who buy huge quantities of Treasuries. Concern about rising rates makes both stock and bond holders uneasy for the above stated reasons and stock holders for yet another reason. If rising interest rates take too many dollars out of circulation, it can cause deflation. Companies are then unable to sell products at any price and prices fall dramatically. The resulting effect on stocks is negative in a deflationary environment due to a simple lack of liquidity.

In summary, in order for stock prices to move smoothly, perceptions of inflation and deflation must be in balance. A disturbance in that balance is usually seen as a change in interest rates and the foreign exchange rate. Stock and bond prices normally oscillate in opposite directions due to differences in risk and the changing balance between bond yields and apparent stock yields. When we find them moving in the same direction, it means a major change is taking place in the economy. A falling US dollar raises fears of higher interest rates which impacts stock and bond prices negatively. The relative sizes of market capitalization and daily trading help explain why bonds and currencies have such a large impact on stock prices. First, let’s consider total capitalization. Three years ago the bond market was from 1.5 to 2 times larger than the stock market. With regard to trading volume, the daily trading ratio of currencies, Treasuries and stocks was then 30:7:1, respectively.

James A. Andrews publishes the Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter. Site contact, http://www.WiserTrader.com. © 2004 Permission is granted to reproduce this article in print or on your web site so long as this paragraph is included intact.

Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. “Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months.” Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.

Of course, your broker will send you gobs of slick material about various companies that predict they will double or triple in the next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange there will be about one half of one per cent (0.5%) of companies that will double this year. Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I’m not and I am considered a professional trader. And I am sure your broker isn’t either. He just wants to make a commission and is probably promoting a stock his brokerage company wants to push.

Every investor wants to know the future and will send money to some “expert” who will send him news about a company that only (?) he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret and everyone knows everything about other companies. As soon as some “analyst” finds a cogent fact that can influence a stock price he will share that “secret” with a few close friends. Within minutes the “secret” is known by hundreds of thousands and is immediately reflected in the price of the stock.

If you do get sucked into one of these money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of your “investment”. This is not an investment; it is a gamble and should be treated as such. The first thought of any professional trader is ‘if I am wrong how much am I willing to lose’? Maybe 2%, 5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand that small losses are OK, but never take a big loss.

From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone was a financial genius. How many of those folks kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none. Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said, “Hang in there. You are in for the long haul”. Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.

Yes, but understand you don’t need to predict anything. Don’t forecast. What you can easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be found in many ways with the simplest being posted every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index price is above the 200-day moving average you own equities and when it is below you are in cash or bonds. Nothing complicated,

Don’t try to forecast the market. Let the market trend tell you.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

As an investor you will want to check out any equity before you buy it. Many investors go to Morningstar which is one of the largest providers of mutual fund information in the world. It is assumed that their information is correct. After all that is what you are paying for.

Recently the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) called them on the carpet for not correcting an error within a reasonable time (whatever that is according to the SEC). Everyone makes errors and this was no big deal.

It seems that when you went to their site and drew up a chart or asked for statistics on Rock Canyon Top Flight mutual fund it failed to notify the potential buyer that the fund had issued a very large dividend of approximately 25% and the NAV (Net Asset Value) dropped from $15 to $11 to reflect the $4.00 dividend.

When you ask for a chart of this fund on MarketWatch, Yahoo, TheStreet or Bloomberg they only post the NAV and do not make any adjustment for the dividend or capital gains distributions. Looking at the chart it appears the fund fell out of bed. Because I look at so many charts I knew immediately that this was a distribution and not some calamity. It is best to call the fund to verify this.

Most funds that make dividend and capital gains distributions usually do so in December, some in November and very few at other times during the year.

Some nitpicker called the SEC and made a complaint about Morningstar. Not that I am a big fan of them (in fact I think their reports are worthless) they get their price information from other sources such as the above. If you are not familiar with the requirement of mutual funds to disburse their profit before year end you might be fooled when you see the price suddenly drop.

This is important for potential investors. I caution everyone to get a chart on the Internet of at least a one year performance of any mutual fund before buying. It is better to go back to year 2000 to see if the fund manager was able to keep from losing money during the last 4 years. Almost none of them could so they bamboozle about how they did better than the S&P500 Index which had a huge loss of 50% and remains down 25% from those highs at this time. Don’t fall for that one.

Once again I caution that any purchase should have an exit plan. One of the basic rules of investing is never to lose a lot if you are wrong. Small losses will not ruin your portfolio, but big losses can ruin your retirement. Set your loss limit (5%, 10% or ?) and stick with it.

Charts can help you with buying/selling decisions, but check out their accuracy as charting is not an exact science.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

There are red lights, green lights, blue lights and spot lights. There are orange lights, pink light and flash lights. There are search lights and micro lights. And the one you must obey is the stop light.

If you don’t stop when the light is red you could easily have an accident and lose everything you have, even your life. These different types of lights alert us to possibilities and dangers. Is there a light that goes on that tells us whether the stock market is going up or down; one that is green to invest or red to sell? They aren’t very obvious, but they are out there. You only need to become aware and learn when the signal flashes.

It doesn’t take long to learn to drive an automobile, but it does require much more skill to handle an 18-wheeler. The professional driver has taken to time to learn his profession. He knows what all the lights mean. Not only the red and green, but the yellow and blue as well. There are also many light signals inside the cab that he must be aware of all the time if he is to have a safe passage.

Stock market signals may not be red or green or any color at all, but they are there and are obvious to one who wants to learn. The one who wants to learn is the investor who wants to protect his capital from loss and to make enough money to retire in a comfortable life style.

The most obvious signal is the 200-day moving average. You can find one of the best market signals printed every day in the Investor’s Business Daily Mutual Fund Index. When the index is above the 200MA line you are in the green and should to be invested. When it is below the 200MA line you the red light is on and you want to be in a money market fund. When those signals flash and you learn to act you will become very wealthy over the next 10 to 20 years. You will not lose your money when the market is going down.

It you take the time to go back in history, say 20 years and treat the S&P500 Index as a dollar value you will quickly see that buying and selling on this simple method would have made you a ton of money. No, there is not very much trading involved. You will only be buying or selling about once each year. It will not take much of your time and you will sleep better, especially when the market is crashing and your money is safely tucked away.

Currently the green signal is on to be invested according to the IBD Mutual Fund Index. The red signal will come on that tells you it is time to sell when the index plunges below the 200MA line. Pay attention to the signals. You don’t want to lose everything.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know. Copyright 2005.

The thinking process of the brain relating to the psychology of trading involves:

– Beliefs
– Feelings
– Values
– Dispositions and
– Faith

The positive or negative energy brings power to a person’s actions, which ultimately determines whether a person is a winner or a loser. You can change for the better or for the worst. The old saying goes: For as a man thinks in his heart so he is.

– Trading is the most difficult money making skill to master, because the market represents the aspects of people and life.

It is necessary to scratch the surface and explain what psychology means and how it relates to trading. Without doing so, you will not understand why this element is important to your trading plan.

The psychology aspects of people are separated into two categories:

1. Believers (the first category) who support the belief that something in the realms of other dimensions in the universe exist and
2. Non-believers (the second category) who are convinced that reality is the only dimension of life.

It is (the first category) that usually uses both sides of the brain to think and has access to a third component of the brain (faith) that is dead when the person is born. (The second category) only uses a small portion of the brain’s power. While (the second category) may or may not use both side of the brain to function, the third part of the brain (faith) is completely dead and non-active.

See, the psychology of the brain is separated into three separate parts:

1. Faith
2. The thinking factor and
3. The emotional part.

If the thought, (focusing on the power of positive thinking), division of the brain controls the emotions, the individual maintains and develops discipline. If the emotions run the thinking part of the brain, the human being lives in a pure state of extreme confusion and disorder.

This is why the answer to success is understanding how the correct forms of discipline work - without it you will lose your shirt in the market.

Discipline in the following three areas of trading will ultimately determine your trading success.

* Training — The successful trader never rests on past successes, or believes that his trading ability has peaked. He is always learning and practicing his decision-making skills, honing them until they become second nature. Then he can react faster than a speeding bullet, but with the benefit of superior human judgment.

* Trading Rules — The successful trader develops set of trading rules - a plan - that he follows faithfully. This guides his decision-making at all times. If a trader’s plan dictates that it is time to exit a stock, the trader will exit that trade and not wait a minute longer.

* Self-Control — Successful traders display an extraordinary amount of self-control. Keeping emotions constantly in check, the disciplined trader is immune to the highs and lows that attend large market swings - whether panic, in a downturn, or of euphoria. I will show you how to learn the secrets of discipline.

Can You Learn Discipline?

The big question here is whether you can develop the discipline you do not have naturally. I believe the answer is "yes, you can," but you must have the necessary commitment to do so.

Ultimately, undisciplined behavior is going to be punished by the market.

Private traders who persevere and master self discipline, have external stimuli that will help the process. However, the market does not help as much as it might, because of the principle of random reinforcement. It is the market’s tendency to reward bad behavior from time to time.

This crucial fact is one of the reasons why it takes so long to learn how to trade. You need to realize this: there is no point in having a system if you are not going to follow it. Follow and develop a routine of self-discipline and you will be successful in your trading ventures.

-=-=-==-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
David Jenyns is recognized as the leading expert when it
comes to designing profitable trading systems.

His most recent course Ultimate Trading Systems is a step-
by-step trading roadmap to designing profitable trading
systems. Learn how *you* can become one of his students.
Click Here ==> http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com

Receive David’s free trading tips:
==> http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/stocks.html
-=-=-==-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

How do you make money without picking tops and bottoms?

I am glad you asked…

Successful trading is similar to a successful business. You see, every successful business has a business plan so do successful traders. The astute reader knows that, successful traders have a systematic way they approach the market.

The definition of a trading system is a trader’s business plan; it defines your approach to trading…

1. A properly constructed trading system will leave no room for human judgment
2. It will define your actions given any circumstances that may arise.
3. It is a distinct set of rules
4. Which instructs the trader what to do and when to do it.

The importance of this trading plan cannot be understated. Without a consistent set of guiding principles to govern your trading decisions, most traders will hop from one trade to the next, guided by emotion or hysteria.

I firmly believe that not having a plan, you are doomed to fail.

Trading systems themselves will come in many varieties, although they all take the guesswork out of trading. A trading system will determine for you when to buy or sell. System trading has proven itself consistently to be the most effective long-term trading technique.

In fact, you may have even heard the story about one of the most famous system traders of all time, Richard Dennis. It just so happened, in mid 1983, Dennis was having an ongoing dispute with his long time friend Bill Eckhardt about whether great traders were born or made. Dennis believed that trading could be broken down into a set of rules that others could learn. On the other hand, Eckhardt believed trading had more to do with innate instincts, and this skill comes naturally.

In order to settle the matter, Richard suggested that they recruit and train some traders and give them actual accounts to trade to see which one of them was correct. He named his protégés after visiting turtle farms in Singapore; he decided to grow traders similar to the way farmers cultivated turtles, hence the name: Turtles.

To cut a long story short, Dennis taught his trading methodology to these groups of students who later became some of the most successful traders of all time; proving finally, that anyone can become skilled at system trading.

Just like the turtles, I too have studied under a mentor who tutored me in the science of trading. Now, I pass these secrets on to you.

A trading system is simply a set of rules that address every aspect of a trade such as entry and exit conditions and money management. Regardless of how complex it may be, a good test for your trading plan is to hand it to someone else to read thoroughly. See if your selected candidate asks questions. If they can easily understand all the rules and the requirements of your strategy with little to no questions, then you have compiled a sound investment plan.

All successful traders that I meet do this and they have their exact trading methodology written down.

Since most traders lose money and do not have their trading methodology written down, does not it make sense to do what the masses are not doing? If you are trading now and have not taken the time to write out methodology, then stop trading and get it done!

Why is it so important? When you take time to sit down and spell out how you perceive the markets, you are accepting the fact that you might be wrong. You are beginning to accept responsibility. Once you write down how you perceive the market, the only conclusion you can arrive at, if the market does not behave according to what you wrote, is that your perception is wrong. When you write down how you are going to enter a trade, only if certain events transpire, you eliminate any possibility of blaming the market. You are forcing yourself to have discipline.

In other words, if you determined that certain bullish signs show up in your market then you enter into a long position. If these prior events occur, and you did not enter the trade, that failure is your fault.

The Components of Your Trading Plan:

A business plan has set components; so does a trading plan. In fact, there are three major components within any trading plan and they are entry, exits and money management rules; here is a quick summary:

1. Tested Entry Rules

– Entry rules are a precise set of rules that an instrument must pass before you enter a trade. Entry rules should be simple, direct, and leave no room for human judgment.

2. Confidential Money Management Rules

– Perhaps the most important and least addressed aspect of trading is the ability to manage risk. A profitable trader is one who has the ability to manage the risks associated with trading. A trading system should define exactly how much money you are willing to lose on any given trade.

3. Tested Exits Rules

– Entering a share is all to no avail if you do not know when to exit a position. Having rules that defines your exit is equally important as one that defines your entry.

When you take time to write down your trading rules, you transform your mental reality to a physical reality. You cannot fudge the numbers, or avoid taking responsibility.

By writing down your methodology, you are forcing yourself to create a series of decisions based on how you see the markets and this my friend is just the beginning.

-=-=-==-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
David Jenyns is recognized as the leading expert when it
comes to designing profitable trading systems.

His most recent course Ultimate Trading Systems is a step-
by-step trading roadmap to designing profitable trading
systems. Learn how *you* can become one of his students.
Click Here ==> http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com

Receive David’s free trading tips:
==> http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/stocks.html
-=-=-==-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

If you are serious about making and keeping money by trading stocks, then there are three things you need to do, and do well.

Money management

Money management comes first. Without a rock-solid method of managing your trading funds, you trading results will be only be fair at best. Money management is more than just knowing how much money you have tied up in a trade. It’s a method of using the right portion of your trading account on any one trade relative to the perceived risk and reward.

There are a few things to consider to managing a trade successfully:

1. What is your account size?
2. How profitable is your trading system?
3. What is the initial amount at risk on a per share basis?
4. What is the profit potential?

Account size

Your account size determines how long you stay in the trading game. If you are skillful, then you will not require a large account. On the other hand, even if you are a new trader, you can use a small account as long as you control your risk.

Controlling the risk means never using more money then you need on any one trade. A very simple formula for stock market success is to risk less than 3% of your total account value on a single trade.

If you have a $10,000 account, this means you never lose more than $300 per trade. If your account drops to $9,000, then you risk less than $270.

As your account grows, while the total amount at risk increases, you still only risk a maximum of 3% of your account. Say your account is at $12,000, then your maximum amount at risk is $360.

In theory, this ensures that you never go broke! And that is of utmost importance.

Profitable

If your system is profitable, then you will typically win more money then you lose. While some consider the percentage of winners relative to the number of losers, nothing could be further from the truth.

It doesn’t do you any good to have a system that wins on nine out of very ten trades if you give all of your gains back on the one loser. More important is that the winners overwhelm the losers.

A profitable trading system might have a third of the trades result in the maximum loss planned for, a third of the trades either make or lose a little money, and a third of the trades bring in the profits.

Risk

It’s worth repeating, risk no more than 3% of your total account value on any one trade. If you keep this in mind, you are ensured of minimizing losses to your account. At what price you enter a stock and where you place your initial stop price are used to determine how many shares you trade.

Profit

The profit potential of a system is the "edge". If you can estimate how much money you *might* make over time, and if that profit comes from many trades over time, then you probably have a winning system.

A trading system will either have a profit target that determines when to enter AND exit (good) or it will tell you when to enter and keep you in a profitable trade as long as possible without giving back much, or any, gains (better).

Orders

No matter what trading pattern you use to enter a stock, you will make the most money by using the correct orders.

When you wait until a stock has proven it’s intensions - typically by trading above the previous day’s high for a buy, or below the previous day’s low for a sell short - then having an order in place that captures that exact price is crucial.

Let’s say your favorite trading pattern signals a buy for. If you are an end of day trader, then the next morning you watch the opening price for the stock. If the stock opens less then yesterday’s high, you place a stop order to buy above the previous day’s high. Even better is to include a limit price with that buy stop order.

How much above the previous day’s high is your call. As long as it is greater than the previous day’s high, you are making the stock prove that it is going up.

Sure, you give up some of the profit potential. But you are more likely to turn a profit with a stock that is moving in your favor.

Once you are in a position, then you need to protect yourself from loss. If your method of picking stocks is good, then it’s unlikely that the stock will revisit the current prices. Continuing with the buy example, to protect your account from a catostrophic loss, place a good-till-cancel sell stop order below the recent low. If yesterday’s low is lower then the current day’s low, that’s where the sell stop order goes.

And make certain that the order does not include a limit. Stocks can and do gap down. Expecting that you will have a sell order filled at your stop price is a quick way to the poor house.

Trading system

Your choice of what method to enter and exit stocks plays a critical part in your stock market sucess.

A great trading system looks for low risk opportunities to enter a stock. Knowing at exactly what price signal to enter and when to exit - even if it is for a small loss - will keep your account growing. As long as you consistently follow the rules layed out by a well designed trading plan, you can count on steadily growing your trading account.

My favorite trading pattern does a great job of identifying stock likely to move rapidly in your favor.

There is no reason to be trading stocks that are not ready to deliver the biggest gains in the least amount of time.

If you are serious about taking your stock trading to a higher level, then read about this trading pattern.

Regards,

Dave

About The Author

Dave Wooding is NOT a registered investment advisor, nor does he suggest you trade with money you can’t afford to lose. Instead, he offers practical swing trading pattern information at http://www.trading-pattern.com that comes from years of trading experience.

What is leverage?

Here is a definition of leverage from an online dictionary "leverage - The use of credit or borrowed funds to improve one’s speculative capacity and increase the rate of return from an investment, as in buying securities on margin."

Essentially, the core idea of leverage is that investors can use less money to control bigger amount of investment so that investors can make more money when the price movement is in investors’ favor. In fact, the investment involved in leverage does not have to be stocks, it can be bonds, or real estate, or any other investment vehicles. It does not have be margin or debt either. Options (put or calls), warrants are special kind of leverage where small amount of dollar can control much bigger amount of common stocks.

Leverage is common tool available for individual investors. Whenever we open a brokerage account at pretty much any broker, such as E*trade, TD Waterhouse, etc, we can enable margin or option feature pretty easily. Because options usually are not favorable leverage tool for value investors, I generally do not recommend options for investment purposes. This article will focus mainly on margin to illustrate the concept and usage of leverage in stock investment.

Leverage - how it works?

Margin is open-ended debt that investors borrow money forever as long as the margin requirements are met. Right now at this low interest rate environment, brokerages typically charge about 5% - 7% interest rate on margin debt.

Here is an example how an investor can make more money by using margin. Suppose John had $10,000 deposited into a new brokerage margin account 5 years ago. Margin interest rate was 5% for past 5 years. John has invested into only one stock XYZ with 20% yearly smooth performance( there was rarely such stock existing, just a hypothetical one) for past 5 years.

Case 1

If John did not use any margin and fully invested that cash into stock XYZ, the past 5 years performance was 20% per year or 149% total performance for 5 years as in Table 1.

Table 1 Full investment into XYZ, no margin. year Account Equity Value

start $10,000

year1 $12,000

year2 $14,400

year3 $17,280

year4 $20,736

year5 $24,883

Case 2 If John invested $20,000 into XYZ in his account and borrowed $10,000 money on margin 5 years ago, every year John had to pay 5% interest or $500 margin interest, but the investment performance was 30% per year or 273% total performance for 5 years as in Table 2. That is significantly higher performance than Table 1 case.

Table 2 Borrowed $10,000 on margin. 5% margin interest

year Account Equity Value

start $10,000

year1 $13,500

year2 $17,800

year3 $23,060

year4 $29,472

year5 $37,266

Leverage - are there any trap?

By looking at table 1 and table 2 cases, should we all rush into margin tomorrow? Not yet. There is serious flaw in above 2 cases.

In real life, you can rarely find a stock performed like above example XYZ! In fact, investors should never expect a stock can rise smoothly over relatively long time frame.

Here is a typical stock XYZ would have done for 5 years. The 5 years performance was still 20% per year in average, but not smoothly. In the beginning of second year, due to a short term negative event, XYZ lost 60% of price suddenly and recovered all losses and gained 20% that year at year end.

Now let’s redo that math for above cases.

Case 1 If John did not use any margin, the 5 year performance was no difference. John did not sell during the second year 60% loss and he still made 20% for that year.

revised Table 1 Full investment into XYZ, no margin.

year Account Equity Value

start $10,000

year1 $12,000

year2 $14,400

year3 $17,280

year4 $20,736

year5 $24,883

Case 2 If John invested $20,000 into XYZ and borrowed $10,000 money on margin 5 years ago into that portfolio, The beginning of second year John had $24,000 in XYZ with roughly $10,500 margin on it. Because XYZ lost 60% suddenly during that year, which triggered margin call, John’s broker liquidated John’s account and John lost everything on year2! John’s account was wiped out

revised Table 2 Borrowed $10,000 on margin. 5% margin interest

Account Equity Value

start $10,000

year1 $13,500

year2 $0

year3 $0

year4 $0

year5 $0

Let’s think about above revised tables. XYZ stock was not really bad stock, it performed well with 20% return over past 5 years. However, by misusing margin, John actually lost everything and got wiped out!

Don’t use leverage, don’t use margin if you do not fully understand it!

Rule No. 1 - Forget about reward, focus on safety

The No.1 reason investors want to use leverage is to make more money, not to lose money. Wipe out is especially bad.

Over past decades of stock investment, I made lots of mistakes before, speculation and losses at earlier years, misjudgment of stock analysis, etc. But one thing I never encountered that I never got wiped out because I have always been aware of the danger of margin and danger of leverage lure.

I have seen online BBS discussions that somehow wipe out is beneficial to investor and a great investor must go through multiple wipe outs. Maybe one wipe out was not that bad for an individual so that he/she can learn a lesson in earlier years. Something must be wrong if the investor went through multiple wipe outs. He/she was not learning from past failures.

The risk of margin comes from the volatility of stocks and diversification degree of portfolio. To avoid risk of margin leverage, investors can study past chart of stock price, and diversify portfolio into different stocks or different industries. While a value investor does not have to care that much about short term stock price movement, a value investor must take extraordinary caution on analyzing the volatility of a stock if he/she is using leverage in stock investment.

While past stock price volatility and portfolio diversification are all relevant, there is more to consider on leverage. Here comes Rule No.2 below.

Rule No. 2 - the riskier the investment, the less the leverage

The key thing to avoid wipe out in leveraged investment is to use leverage based on risk of investment. The more risk of portfolio, the less leverage or less margin can be used.

The risk can not just be past volatility, a value investor must do home work of business analysis of company profits or earnings to assess the risk of investment.

Real estate is relative safe so that homeowners or real estate investors can use 4-1 to 10-1 leverage to buy a house on mortgage.

Banks use up to 100-1 leverage and most local banks in USA are pretty safe. Bank business is essentially like a leveraged investment. Banks borrow money from retail depositors and lend out money with mortgage or business loans. We can consider mortgages or business loans are "investment vehicle" of banks. The interest difference between checking account (0%-1%), or CD (2%-3%) and mortgage or business loans (5% to 8% or more) is what banks are making. Because interest rate up or down volatility is not as big as that of stocks, 100-1 leverage is not really as scary as it may appear in many cases.

Value investing is just a "special" kind of business just like bank business or real estate investing. Value investors can evaluate leverage usage just like a bank or real estate investor. There is nothing truly wrong with leverage if investors can properly use it. The value investor master Benjamin Graham said clearly in his book Intelligent Investor, that it is perfectly OK to use margin to profit from some bond arbitrage opportunities while it is actually very unwise to load full bunch of hyped up penny stocks in a cash account!

Rule No 3 - Look for minimum 2-1 margin interest coverage

In typical security analysis, an interest coverage of 4-1 or 2-1 minimum ratio is usually standard criteria to assess the risk of bond investment. If a company’s pretax or pre-interest earning is $4 per share, and its debt interest is $1 per share, it meets the 4-1 interest coverage ($4 divided by $1) and therefore the company’s bond is considered as safe investment.

The same concept can be applied to leveraged value investment. This is particularly true for certain bond-like investment like REIT or high dividend stocks. If the investment reward is less than 2-1 ratio, don’t even consider to use any leverage.

Case study on FB Here is case study of my past 2001 stock pick Friedman, Ramsey Asset (Ticker FB, now merged into FBR). In 2001, FB was trading right at its book value with 18% dividend yield, and it was REIT stock. Its business model was leveraged mortgage investment by borrowing short term loans with 3% and investing into long term Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac mortgage with interest of 5%. FB utilized 10-1 leverage on this 2% interest rate spread and made nearly 20% return to support this 18% dividend yield.

FB business risk is mainly from interest rate risk. Because the mortgage was guaranteed by a quasi-government company Fannie Mae or Freddie Mak, there was little credit risk involved in FB business model. In fact, compared to banks’ sometimes 100-1 leverage ratio, FB business leverage was pretty low and reasonable. After an internet bubble, I predicted that interest rate would be quite stable if not lower. The stock volatility was not issue as well. If FB stock price dropped below book value too much, FB company and its affiliate FBR would simply buy up its common shares instead of investing into mortgages.

Considering 18% dividend yield vs 5% brokerage margin interest, there was nearly 4-1 ratio of margin interest coverage if I use margin to buy FB stock, which was exactly what I did in 2001. During 2001, 2002 and 2003, FB was very solid stock delivering 18% dividend yield. After the merger with FBR, FB+FBR almost doubled from where they were couple of years ago.

Of course, FB investment was just one position of my diversified portfolio together with NEN and other stocks. But the rule of 2-1 minimum margin interest coverage can be applied to other positions as well.

Certainly with portfolio full of safe stocks like FB, or NEN or other similar value stocks, using a small amount of margin made sense to enhance performance back in 2001 even though the market was horrible then. If the stock was a tech stock like CSCO or YHOO, margin would have been disastrous and sure way to wipe out an account.

Currently with 7% dividend yield and rising interest rate outlook, FBR is no longer as safe and profitable investment as FB was in 2001. FBR no longer qualifies my margin interest coverage requirement today.

OK, that’s all for today, remember Don’t use leverage until you fully understand it!

Article by Henry Lu of BlastInvest LLC, a premium investment newsletter publisher in Connecticut. Visit http://www.BlastInvest.com for FREE "how-to" investing assistance, web services and more.

I cringe every time I hear a novice investor tell me that they only purchase low priced stocks because they offer higher potential gains. A common phase I hear is “I like to buy $1 and $2 stocks because they can double easily and I will make a 100% profit”.

My reaction is to always let these people know that “stocks are priced low for a reason, just as stocks priced high are there for a reason”.

Like anything in life, quality is never offered at a discount. When I am in the market for a car, I don’t expect to purchase a Mercedes for the price of a Pinto. No pun directed towards Pinto car owners as I am just providing an example.

Stocks are valued at their current market value or perceived value under the current situations. A $1.00 stock is trading at this level because it is only worth this much in investor’s eyes. A stock priced at $50 or $100 is trading at these levels because of a quality that the lower priced stock does not have. Institutions, such as mutual funds, will not purchase a stock at $1 based on strict internal rules and fund guidelines. Stocks move based on vast amounts of support from institutions that have the buying power to propel prices 100%, 200% or more in less than 12 months.

A quick study of stock market history will prove that the majority of stocks priced at $2 or less will be de-listed or bankrupt before they ever give an investor a triple digit return. High quality stocks are typically representative of high quality companies that usually have innovative products or services that are increasing revenues and earnings thus peaking institutional interest. I have seen more stocks double or triple from the $20-$50 range than any other price level during the past five years.

A stock going up 25% in one month’s time is the same whether it is from $5 to $6.25 or $60 to $75. It happens every year. The novice investor is usually hesitant to buy a stock that is priced at $50 or more as it looks too expensive to the untrained eye. What’s expensive to an uneducated investor may be a bargain to an educated investor.

Always buy the stock that presents the highest probability of success based on both fundamental and technical analysis. The price should never matter nor should the lot size. A 25% gain will always be the same whether you buy a $2 stock with 5000 shares or a $100 stock with 100 shares.

I agree that the chances for a quick 25% gain on a $5 stock seems greater than a 25% gain for a $100 stock but it’s also much greater for a 25% slide on the $5 stock than it is for $100 stock. Your downside protection is limited with a low priced stock as it can move quickly and present you with an illiquid position that a higher quality stock may not present.

Here is a very basic example:

If you buy a $2 stock and it gains $1 in two months, you now have a 50% gain. But, if the stock falls $1 in two weeks, you now have a huge 50% loss in your portfolio, a number that usually devastates most traders.

If you buy a $60 stock and it gains $30 in two months, you will have a 50% gain. Now, if the stock starts to fall rapidly and is now down $10 in a few days, you still have a chance to sell the stock within 10% of your purchase price and prevent further loss and devastation to your portfolio. You, the investor will most likely be able to spot negative action or red flags and get out quickly enough without the sudden 50% drop that the lower priced stock could blindside you with.

Don’t buy a stock based on low prices or a quantity of shares. Always buy a stock based on quality looking towards the fundamentals and technicals and the price and volume action. Study our archives and look at the number of stocks that have gone on to tremendous gains from the $20, $30 and $40+ levels.

Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com

Chris is the founder and CEO of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We don’t stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.