One of the great truisms of Wall Street is "Don’t fight the Fed". For the long term investors this has resulted in greater profits. When the Federal Reserve Board hikes interest rates look out and when the do it 3 times in a row it is called "3 jumps and a stumble". We have just gone through the stumble and it has been costly.

When you go back in history you will find that the stock market has almost always gone down substantially after the Fed has jumped interest rates 3 time in a row. As of this writing the Fed has lowered rates twice and we are looking for a third cut very soon. When that happens you will know that there is very little likelihood of the market going lower.

The stock market moves more on anticipation than fact. Another old saying is "Buy the rumor and sell the news". Because of what Mr. Greenspan has done we anticipate the market will rally and the rumor is he will do it again so we have two reasons to think that stock prices will move higher. He caused all this mess and now we look to him as our savior. It should be as the Queen of Hearts said, "Off with his head". Unfortunately he is appointed and cannot be removed from office even by the President. Just don’t give him undo credit for lowering interest rates when he should not have raised them in the first pace.

For the smart long term investors when they see the Fed raising interest rates they should immediately pay attention top their stock and mutual fund holdings with the idea of selling them and placing the funds in a money market account. The investors won’t be making any capital gains, but they also won’t be standing in front of the train as it comes barreling down the track and runs them over. No, you don’t have to sell immediately as it takes several months for interest rate increases to take effect - usually about 9 months.

When rates are lowered there will also be a time lag of 6 to 12 months which gives you opportunity to start picking some winners for the next bull market. Forget that Wall Street conventional wisdom of "do your research". Research is basically worthless. If you can find it out then everyone else already knows it and it has been reflected in the price of the stock. Let me give you a method that is too simple for your broker. He will tell you it won’t work except it does.

Every Friday there is a listed in Investor’s Business Daily on the back page about 40 charts of the week’s best performing stocks. Notice they are all in uptrends. You could buy almost any one of these and check it weekly to see that it remains in the trend. When it falls out, sell it.

There are other equally simple methods your broker will not recommend. They want to keep the Wall Street mystique. Once you find out how easy it is to make money you won’t need them. It is your money. Are you willing to work a little to make it grow?

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

If you are going to be a winner in the stock market you must have emotional maturity. I did not say you had to be smart or know how to pick stocks and mutual funds.

Once someone buys a stock or mutual fund he immediately seems to have a love affair with it. It can become a fatal attraction that can lead to disaster.

All brokers and financial planners are taught to buy and hold no matter what happens to the price of an equity. They get married to it and hope that it will treat them well while they are together. Today about 50% of all marriages end in divorce yet people will hold on to a stock forever that has gone down waiting for it to come back so they can get out "even". In a bad marriage you never get out even.

Any time you buy a stock or mutual fund you must have an exit strategy in place or face dire consequences meaning loss of your investment. When I was a floor trader on the exchange I would buy various equities, but before I made my purchase I always knew in advance how much risk I was willing to take. My prenuptial was in place.

Here is the greatest secret to making money in the stock market. It is knowing when to sell. Always figure you will have a loss until you see it go up and from then on your primary purpose is to keep the profit you have made. Never give back profits. If you become emotionally tied to any stock or fund it will definitely come back to bite you.

In 1998 you could have bought Janus 20, one of the largest and best known mutual funds, for $40 per share and gleefully watched it go up to $93. Today it is selling for $35. That love affair has cost someone money. If the investor had looked at that mutual fund as just another piece of paper to hold as long as the principal was appreciating he would have been dollars ahead. Brokers and financial planners foster this kind of immature thinking because they know they might upset the client if they told him to sell his dearly beloved shares.

Every professional trader I know would not subscribe to the long haul theory. That is the death of a retirement account. So many people buy a stock and refuse to sell it for less than they paid for it. Would it not have been better to have taken a small loss and had that money to invest in a better situation?

The immature investor is willing to take a big loss rather than a small one. It takes fortitude to be able to sell out of a losing position. When you learn this lesson you will become wealthy.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

The Bollinger Band theory is designed to depict the volatility of a stock. It is quite simple, being composed of a simple moving average, and its upper and lower "bands" that are 2 standard deviations away. Standard deviations are a statistical tool used to contain the majority of movement or "deviation" around an average value. Bear in mind that when you use the Bollinger Band theory, it only works as a gauge or guide, and should be use with other indicators.

Normally, we use the 20-Day simple moving average and its standard deviations to create Bollinger Bands. Strategies some investors use include shorter- or longer-term Bollinger Bands depending on their needs. Shorter-term Bollinger Bands strategies (less than 20-Days) are more sensitive to price fluctuations, while longer-term Bollinger Bands (more than 20-Days) are more conservative.

So how do we use the Bollinger Band theory?

The Bollinger Band theory will not indicate exactly which point to buy or sell an option or stock. It is meant to be used as a guide (or band) with which to gauge a stock’s volatility.

When a stock’s price is very volatile, the Bollinger Bands will be far apart. In technical indicator charts, this is depicted like a widening gap. On the other hand, when there is little price fluctuation, hence low volatility, the Bollinger Bands will be in a tight range. This is depicted as narrow "lanes" along the chart.

As for how we use the Bollinger Band theory, here are a couple of guidelines.

History shows that a stock usually doesn’t stay in a narrow trading range for long, as can be gauged using the Bollinger Bands. Strategies include relating the width with the length of the bands. The narrower the bands, the shorter the time it will last. Therefore, when a stock starts to trade within narrow Bollinger Bands, we know that there will be a substantial price fluctuation in the near future. However, we do not know which direction the stock will move, hence the need to use Bollinger Bands strategies together with other technical indicators.

When the stock starts to become very volatile, it is depicted in the chart by the actual stock price "hugging" or staying very close to either the upper or lower Bollinger Bands, with the Bands widening substantially. The wider the Bands are, the more volatile the price is, and the more likely the price will fall back towards the moving average.

When the actual stock price moves away from the Bands back towards the moving average, it can be taken as a signal that the price trend has slowed, and will move back towards the moving average. However, it is common for the price to bounce off the Bands a second time before a confirmed move towards the moving average.

As usual, and for the Bollinger Band theory in particular, it should be noted that individual indicators should not be used on their own, but rather with one or two additional indicators of different types, in order to confirm any signals and prevent false alarms.

Steven is the webmaster of http://www.option-trading-guide.com If you would like to learn more about Option Trading or Technical Analysis, do visit for various strategies and resources to help your stock market investments.

The stock market has not been very kind to your investments lately. Your broker knows this so you may have received a call from him suggesting it is time to ‘rebalance and diversify’ your portfolio.

What does this really mean? He wants you to sell some of your holdings and buy something else. Probably sell stocks and buy bonds "because of market uncertainty". Sounds good, but it really means he needs some commission and you are "it". Yes, I agree it may be time to sell all your stocks and mutual funds and put everything in a money market account until this bear market is over. Your broker doesn’t like money market funds because he doesn’t make any commission. That may be why he never recommends them.

Rebalance doesn’t have any true stock market meaning. It is one of those Wall Street words they use to confuse you. It sounds good, but that’s all.

Diversify is another broker and financial planner favorite. Have part of your money in stocks, some in mutual funds, bonds and maybe 5% in a money market so you can take advantage of an initial public offering when a new one comes along. Yeah! Now let’s try the true meaning of diversify: put some here, put some there and a little there (and all of this does generate commission, of course) because I really don’t know what to do so we will spread it around and hope for the best.

No, I don’t hate your broker or financial planner. It is just that I know they have not been trained to protect your capital or how to make money. How do I know that? I used to own a brokerage company and I know how these guys consistently lose their customers and their own money. Yes, they even do it to themselves. That’s how dumb they are.

If you have lost money this year in your nice "safe" mutual fund you are not alone. Did you know that 99% of all stock mutual funds have a loss? Scary isn’t it. Is there any thing you could have done to have protected your capital from a major loss? Yes there is.

For example, in 1998 you could have bought Janus 20 mutual fund for about $40/share. You and several hundred thousand others did. All of you watched as it went up to $94/share. Wonderful! Uh oh, it is now selling for $35. If you had been told by your broker (and you weren’t) that it is a good policy to protect your profits with a mental stop-loss order of about 10% you could have sold out at about $80/share, but you are in for the long haul and you are a conservative investor so you won’t sell.

The term conservative investor is an oxymoron. There is no such thing when you have your money on the line. You are a speculator. It happens to be that you are a long-term speculator. And they get just as burned as the day traders. It just takes longer.

Don’t fall for the nonsense of rebalancing and diversifying. When one of your holdings starts down more than 10% just sell out. You want to diversify and rebalance into cash until this bear market is over.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Everything you invest in has risk so you want to do your research before you put your money on the line.

For example, when McDonald’s opens a new restaurant (please, don’t call it a hamburger joint) they will investigate as many of the relevant facts as possible. The demographics of the area - age and income of those within a certain driving distance. Who, where and how much is local competition? The number of cars driving by each day will be counted and will be tallied at one-hour increments. Local labor costs must be figured in. The cost of acquiring the land and construction of a new building or rental of an existing location is estimated. These and many other factors are added up to get an idea of the approximate operating costs and amortization of fixed assets.

When they have all that then they will be able to figure out how many hamburgers will need to be sold to break even. This true and meaningful research to decide whether to risk money for investment - in this case return on investment or as Wall Street calls it, ROI.

Unfortunately, Wall Street also tells you to do similar research before you buy stock in a company. There is almost no correlation between doing research for ROI and doing similar research to determine if a stock is going to go up. There are thousands of companies that have excellent Operating Statements, but the stock goes nowhere year after year. One of the easiest ways to see this is to go to www.bigcharts.com , type in the symbol of the stock and check back on its price performance for the past 5 to 10 years. If it doesn’t have a nice steady upward movement it will be best not to buy it. Also if the price action is extremely volatile you should also pass even if your broker says to buy it, especially if your broker says to buy it.

The type of research brokerage firms tell you to do means absolutely nothing as far as finding out if the stock price will go up. Wall Street-type research is basically worthless.

Let’s says you have done some intelligent research and have found a stock or mutual fund that has been going up for the past several months or even years (these are very rare) and you decide to buy it. There is no guarantee it will continue to go up, but you want to limit your risk. How? There are a couple of very simple things you can do.

The first and simplest is to determine how much you are willing to risk in this investment. Maybe the stock cost $60 per share and you are going to buy 100 shares for $6,000. You decide you are willing to risk $1,000, no more. At the time you make the purchase you also put in another order with the broker. Tell him to place a Good Til Canceled Stop- Loss Order for $50 per share. If the stock drops to that price you are out.

The second way is to go back to the Internet and the above web site and print out a chart for the past one, three or five-year time periods. Then draw in a trendline along the bottoms of the price action. Connect a straight line along the lowest price. Usually you will have at least three places that will hit this line as it is progressing upward. When that line is penetrated you want to sell out.

Investing in anything without risk control could mean large losses of capital. Wall Street trained brokers are not taught risk control. If you want to preserve your capital it is up to you.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

When we go to the circus we see a trapeze artist working on a high wire or swing either alone or with other athletes. They know what they are doing because of constant practice, but every once in a while there can be a mistake, even a small one that can cause one of them to fall. The result is death or serious injury when they hit the ground.

When you look below them you will see a net. Thank goodness. No one wants to see them get hurt. As expert as they are they take precautions. In almost every profession or athletic event there is some kind of safety net available and this is true in the stock market for all investors. There is never any reason for investments to fall to the point the investor is hurt. Is there a net that breaks that fall and keeps the investor from losing all or part of his money? Yes there is.

It is called a Stop Loss Order. Brokers don’t like them and never recommend them because it means he must watch your account and the average broker has too many customers to do that. However, you can instruct him to place an Open Stop Loss Order that means it is automatically in every day protecting your shares from loss. If you are not allowed to place this kind of order you should move your account to another brokerage house. They obviously don’t care about protecting your money.

Let me give you an example. Suppose that last year you bought Cisco Systems (CSCO) at $50 per share. The first question to ask yourself is how much am I going to risk in case this stock goes down instead of up? You put up $5,000 and bought 100 shares. How much are you willing to risk? $500. $1,000. More? Well, today it is about $15 so if you did not have a loss protection you would be out $3,500 and that is too much. The Stop Loss Order is your Safety Net! If you don’t have one you can be seriously hurt. One of the basic rules is never to lose more than 10%. Look at what you own to see if you would have more money today if you had placed a Stop Loss Order just below the highest closing price for your stocks. I know you would be money ahead.

There are literally thousands of stocks that have lost 80% and 90% of their value. For those poor people (pun intended) who did not have a safety net they are badly hurt and some are just about dead. Sorry, folks, it did not have to happen.

I don’t care what you own. Now you should immediately look at everything in your portfolio and decide where you need to place those stops. If you don’t put a net in place you could be hurt.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

You remember the story about the frog that was put into a pot of cold water on the stove. He was not concerned. Someone lit the burner and the water began getting warm, the frog was very comfortable and as the water became warmer he was so relaxed and complacent that he fell asleep – never to awaken.

Mr. Frog reminds me of today’s stock market investors and that includes all folks with IRAs, 401Ks and the like. Stocks have been slowly rising for the past year and a half (the water is becoming warmer and warmer) and no one is paying any attention to his investment positions. The market is becoming overheated and many investors are about to become boiled. Too many are swimming fat and happy in the increasing warmth with no thought of exit.

Currently the long term market trend is up so complacency reigns supreme. It is doing exactly the same as in 2000. When 2002 ended we had a surplus of boiled frogs. A smart frog will not be lulled to sleep and will have a plan to jump out of the pot. A frog without a plan plans to be frog soup.

There are many ways for the frog to escape and there are many ways for investors to retain their profits or at least not lose their money the next time the market heads down. It will if past performance is any guide to futures results. Any plan to jump out is better than no plan at all.

Whether you own stocks, mutual funds or ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) you can set a limit as to how much you are willing to lose from this point (that’s now, today). Any fool (frog) can buy, but it is the wise man (frog) who knows how to sell (escape the pot).

If you want to have money for retirement you must protect your capital from loss with a risk management strategy. First protect your principle and then protect the profits you have made on the recent stock market advance. It is not difficult to do.

With stocks and ETFs you can place an Open Stop Loss Order with your broker or financial planner. He won’t like this, but it is your money not his. Don’t let him talk you out of it. For regular mutual funds you must have a mental stop and when that price is hit you call your broker (he won’t call you) or the fund directly to tell them to transfer your funds to a Money Market account. Cash is a position.

If you are not familiar with stop loss orders you can find books in your library and there are hundreds of articles on the Internet. See some of my previous articles on my web site.

The water is heating up. Don’t fall asleep and become a poor frog.

Al Thomas’ best selling book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter and receive his market letter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know. Copyright 2005

Recently I watched my favorite football team lose a vital game.

I simply love this team.

I became so emotional about it; I thought “…this isn’t good for my health”. Can you believe that, but that’s how we get when we are passionate. I simply couldn’t believe (I didn’t want to believe) they could lose.

However, as a committed fan, I was going all the way with them. If they were going down, I was going down with them. After all, you don’t give up on your team simply because they don’t win every game. On this occasion, I was so wound up, willing them to win, knowing all along they had blown their chances.

I really should have walked away from the TV. However, I stayed for the pain. Oh, the exquisite agony. At the end, my shoulders and head were down, I felt like I’d run a marathon and deeply felt the loss for the team and myself. Was there life after this game?

I should have been saying to myself “… they’ve done well considering they’re a young team, they’ve done better than expected, so save yourself the heartache and face the fact…this season is not theirs…emotionally detach yourself.”

As I was lying on the settee, absolutely exhausted, analysing why I’d put myself through it, my mind went back to my early days of trading. We all go through this and hopefully only in our very early days – when we learn a few painful lessons. For some, it’s enough to put them off trading forever.

We buy a stock, believing the price will go to a higher level. We know it will rise, because it’s a blue chip and the indicators all line up. There’s no chance this will turn against us. It’s a stock we love because we’ve followed it for some time and it’s a household name – it’s been a great performer for years. Of course, we’ve got our mental stop loss sorted out before we go into the trade.

However, it does turn against us. Because we love the stock we see our stop loss taken out and what do we do… Nothing!

We love this stock and it will definitely bounce back. But it doesn’t and like a sports fan, you stick with your “team” and with every decrease in price, you feel that pain and you rapidly go down too - you too are a loser, not only in the sense that you’ve gone against the rules, but also you’ve lost your money.

Just like your favorite team, you can’t win every time. So, to protect yourself against losing, get out when your stop loss tells you – don’t let your love for a stock paralyse you. In this way, you’ll sustain a small loss, but have enough money left to go in on a winning trade.

So, never attach emotion to a trade – treat them all the same and trade your strategy. And always have a stop loss in place. Don’t rely on mental stops as love can make you do crazy things!

NEVER FALL IN LOVE with a stock.

David Chandler

Ordinary People Making Extraordinary Profits!

For free mini-course on stock and options trading click the following link:

http://www.StockMarketGenie.com

Or visit our blog at:

http://stockmarketgenie.blogspot.com/

The above comments are offered for educational purposes only. We are not providing you with financial advice. We are simply sharing with you what has and hasn’t worked for us personally. If you wish to trade or invest in the stock market you should obtain advice from a registered licensed advisor.

If you have been watching the stock market at all you are probably very confused. You are not alone. One day is a hundred points up for the DOW and the next a hundred down. What is going on? There are many stocks that are going up and unless you are in the right ones you will be left behind.

The professional money managers divide stocks and mutual funds in sections they call peer group. Many times you will find that while the general market is going down there will be one or several groups that are going up. Also when the market is going up you will find some peer groups that are going in the other direction. Today there are peer groups that are doing very well – small capitalization value stocks and funds, real estate group and stocks located in emerging markets.

To find individual stocks like these is pretty difficult so I have a professional do it for me. And he does it free. I hire this person to work 60 or 80 hours a week to do my research. If he doesn’t do a good job I won’t give him any money. He first has to prove to me he knows what he is doing.

Who is this guy that I can get to make me rich and not have to pay him? It is the manager of a no-load mutual fund. Fund managers were paid an average of $275,000 last year so you won’t have to feel sorry for him. In my opinion most of them are over paid because last year 90% of all stock mutual funds lost money. It is the other 10% I want to be invested in. Where are they hiding? Why hasn’t your broker told you about them?

First, your broker will never tell you about a mutual fund that does not pay him a commission. That is how he makes his living so I can’t fault him. There several places you can find excellent funds. If you don’t have a computer you may look in Investor’s Business Daily newspaper. Once each week they will list the best performing mutual funds for the past 6 months. You will check them with your discount broker to see if they have any commission charge. As long as that fund remains in the top 15 on the list you will have a winner. When it drops below you sell it and buy a better one. Yes, it’s that simple.

If you have a computer it is even easier. Go to www.smartmoney.com, click on mutual funds and they will give you a complete list. There are many other web sites with this kind of information.

If you are going to make money in the market you must be in the current strongest peer group sectors at all times. That means that when the fund you own starts down you must get rid of it in favor of one that is going up NOW. Never mind the 3-year and 5-year performance nonsense. With this strange mixed market we have now you must be where the UP action is. The bull is sneaking around very stealthily. You can find out where he is and join him.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

I am sure that if you have a brokerage account with a "full service" broker you have been getting calls about what to buy and sell. If you have big losses in certain stocks you might be hit with that great Wall Street lie to buy more so you can ‘Dollar Cost Average’. It doesn’t work.

In a recent study going back for 5 years a dollar cost averaging program was set up buying the S&P500 Index mutual fund. At the end of 62 months the investor had put in $31,000 and it was now worth $31,162. You would have done better in a savings account at your bank. And that assumes there was no commission or fees of any kind.

Let’s say you owned a stock such as Cisco. This one is held by hundreds of thousands of investors and almost every one of them has a loss. It traded as high as $82 and for more than a year was in a range over $50/share. It was the darling of very broker from here to Timbuktu and when it started down they kept yelling buy more, buy more. Another one in this same category is Lucent going from about $80 to $5. Yuk!

Now Wall Street is trying to get you to buy more of these losers so you can "get out even" when it goes back up. And pigs can fly. Think about this. The person that currently owns these stocks or any similar ones with big losses is now waiting for them to go back up so they can "get out even". Ho boy. It should be extremely obvious that every time one of the monsters sticks its head up it is going to be hit with tremendous selling. There isn’t a chance that any of them will ever get back to their old high prices – or even close.

What does an investor do? Clean out your garage and have a yard sale. Get rid of this junk and put your money to work where there is a chance to make a profit. And don’t buy any stock that has lost 50% to 80% during the bear market of the last 2 years. Brokers will tell you these are now "cheap" and are a good buy. Not a chance. There are too many people waiting to sell.

Now is the time to try to find a completely different equity that did not get hammered last year. Look for one that has a nice smooth upward pattern. Buy it and this time know how much loss you will be willing take if it goes down. How do you do that? Very simple. Use a trailing loss limit order called an open stop-loss order about 10% under the lowest price of the previous month - and keep moving it up as the price advances. That way you will not give back profits.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005