You remember (they show it on TV every year) the running of the wild bulls in Pamplona, Spain. Some of the nuttier people get out their capes and stand in their path as they come roaring down the street.

Our would-be matadors wave their home made cloaks at the bulls hoping the bulls will charge at it and not at them. The list of casualties at the end of the day is sometimes quite large, but, fortunately, not too many are killed.

These two participants, the bull and the make-believe matador remind me of the those same participants in the stock market. The bull is Mr. Market and the matador is the make-believe investor.

Why do I call him a “make-believe investor”. Because as a former 17-year exchange member, floor trader and brokerage company owner I have had many clients who thought they were “investors”. As a professional I would watch many of the dumb things (like standing in front of a charging bull with a rag in their hand) that clients would do with their money. Many times I could talk them out of it, but others they would insist on being gored.

The professional trader learns very quickly that you cannot stand in front of a charging bull who happens to have the shape of a stock market that is going full speed either up or down. Investors love those upward moves, but a few will say I have a nice profit now so I’ll cash in and take the money only to see their stock, mutual fund or ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) continue its skyward journey.

The problem was they were guessing that their price was at or near the top of the move. Is there any way to know what is the highest price? Actually ‘NO’, but there is a way to catch a very large percentage of the price advance and have Mr. Market tell you when to sell. How? Let me show you the time-honored secret of the long-term professional traders.

Stocks do not make an orderly procession to a top and then turn down in an orderly fashion. They move in stair steps up sometime 2 steps up and one step back or 3 steps up and one step back. Many times they will rest for long periods and consolidate. What you can do is place a stop loss order that should be moved up as your equity advances.

Suppose you bought AT&T at $50 several years ago and had followed it up with a 10% or 15% stop loss order. It went over $100 and then started down to below $15. If you had been following with your stop you would have sold out about $85 or $95. The charging bull when it changed direction would not have gored you.

There is nothing to fear as long as you are protecting your investment with stop loss orders. The bull is your friend as long as you have protection when his direction changes.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know. Copyright 2005.

There is a famous cliff on the ocean in Acapulco where experienced divers jump into the sea. It is very dangerous because the water at the base of the cliff surges from a depth of 2 feet to 12 feet. The diver must time his leap so the water is at the greatest depth when he enters or he could easily be killed as many novices before him have been. Timing is the key.

This reminds me of the stock market where timing is also the key to wealth or poverty.

The ocean waves surge in and out against the cliff in short cycles. The tide moves in and out in longer cycles and is very predictable. When you look at Nature you will see there are relatively predictable cycles everywhere. We see day become night, the changes of the seasons and birth to death of our own bodies. Some changes are so microscopically small we cannot see them and others are so long we are not aware they are taking place. Everything has a season or a cycle. It is up to us to be able recognize it and use it to our advantage.

People ask why did the stock market go up (down) today? These short moves can usually be laid to some recent event. Then there are longer surges and regressions of months or a few years. We have bull markets and bear markets that seem to have historical cycles that last decades. These latter cycles run for about 16 to 18 years and move similar to the surges of the sea against the Acapulco cliff. A knowledgeable market timer will buy when the water is out (stocks look their worst) and hit the ocean (sell) as the surge is at its highest.

The ability to do this is NOT guess work. It is an understanding that cycles apply equally as well to the stock market as they do to the forces of Nature. Unfortunately, the principles to learn this very simple technique are not taught in college. Most must learn the method in the school of hard knocks. It can be very expensive.

In our recent bull market from 1982 to 2000 we had one of the predictable long cycles. The mindset of the public has become so hardened to the bull concept that they (and almost all brokers) have forgotten that each up surge is followed by a down surge of approximate equal length. This is not very comforting to current owners of stocks and mutual funds, but once they realize it they can do the prudent thing to protect their money - sell. Then they can buy U.S. Treasury bonds and wait for the next bull market to arrive. It is not very exciting to be in cash, but it is much better than seeing your money slowly disappearing before your eyes.

You must learn entry and exit of the stock market just as the divers in Acapulco have learned the correct moment to jump off the cliff.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Are you one of those many people who dread reading their 401K statements? You have been watching it decline for about 2 years and are wondering if will ever stop. Just about everyone says the market will come back. Brokers say you are in for the long haul so don’t worry. Any account that drops to a 50% loss has to go up 100% to get "even" and that is a very difficult phenomenon. If you have an 80% loss as has already occurred in the Nasdaq you would need a 400% rally to get "even". At 90% you have to see a 900% rise to that mythical "even".

Buy and Hold has been preached so long and so loudly that everyone believes it. As Adolph Hitler said when you tell a lie tell a big one. Wall Street has been screaming this one down the throats of investors for so long it has become conventional wisdom. Look at your 401K today and compare it to 2 years ago and tell me you believe in Buy and Hold. Common sense will not allow it.

Every broker has been taught that market timing doesn’t work. Yes, they teach them that and they have been good students. The problem is they have had a bad teacher. Within the funds you now own the fund managers buy and SELL many times during the year because there is a time to sell. Selling is the key to successful stock market investing.

A friend mine came to me with his wife’s 401K from United Airlines. It is composed of 8 Fidelity mutual funds. The employee can pick any one or more. Since the first of the year six of the eight are down from 3% to 27% (average 10.77%) and the other two were up an average of 3%. The two that are up are fixed income funds otherwise known as bond funds. If you have a 401K, IRA or SEP or almost any mutual funds the only place to preserve your capital during this secular bear market is in a bond fund - a no-load bond fund. Do NOT pay commission for these. And there are many of them.

For years Wall Street has condemned those of us who use market timing. Well, you can call me what you want, but I will have my money when the Buy and Holders are broke.

Stock mutual funds do not work in a long-term bear market. Mutual funds, as we have known them for the past 20 years, are dead. You now have only two choices within your retirement account for your money - a bond fund or a plain money market account. Don’t cry that you will only make 5% on your money. Think about the 20% to 40% you will not lose. According to Lipper 99% of U.S. equity funds lost money in the second quarter. I have been telling investors for years - cash is a position.

Enronitis broke thousands of people because they would not (could not) sell as the stock broke down. Don’t let 401K-itis break you.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

It is difficult to make money in a bull market, but what do you do when you are in a bear market? In what direction should you go not only to make money but to protect what you have from loss?

Almost immediately investors think what should I buy that will help me reach my financial goals? This answer may not be the one you will like. It is really not important what you buy as long as you know the rules of the game - the stock market game.

Rule One. You must know the general trend of the market. Is it going up or is it going down? You don’t know and worse yet you don’t know who does. There are many who do and you can be one of them if you wish, but you must also be willing to put aside the conventional wisdom of Wall Street otherwise known as lies. They tell you that you cannot time the market. You can and it is easy. I have been doing it for almost 20 years and so have many of my friends. Unfortunately, brokerage companies do not want you to learn this simple technique to protect your investments.

Once you know the general direction of the market you can act accordingly. If the trend is up you should own stocks and mutual funds. If it is down you should be out of the market in a money market fund or in bonds.

Go on the Internet to the web site www.bigcharts.com . Here you can type in the basic symbol for the S&P500 Index, SP500, and then use the Interactive Section to put in a 200-day Moving Average. If the price of the Index is below this line you should be in a money market and, if above, you should be buying stocks and no-load mutual funds. It is that simple.

Rule Two. Whatever you buy, and I don’t care what it is, you must set a price below which if it drops that you will sell out. Period. As your equity moves up so should this stop-loss price so as to protect your profit. You don’t want to give that back when the market or this particular equity starts down again.

The market direction changes from up to down in a rather steady cycle of about 14 to 16 years. It has been doing this since 1800. The year 2000 saw the top of the most recent up cycle and it is expected to repeat with another downward direction for the next 11 years. That is not very encouraging to people who have their retirement funds in a 401K or IRA. During this period a money market account will outperform a stock account.

The only alternative is a no-load bond mutual fund. This is better than trying to buy single bonds as there is always the chance a company will go out of business leaving you with nothing. Government bonds are excellent and safe.

Whether or not you agree the direction of the stock market remains down you should plan on a loss limit for the equities in your portfolio.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Right now there doesn’t seem to be any "gold fever". Very few are out looking to strike it rich in this sector.

Way back when at Sutter’s Mill in California the discovery of gold was accidental. One of Sutter’s employees picked up a shiny stone out of the stream and suddenly the fever caught everyone. Gold fever is one of the most catching and dangerous "diseases" that has afflicted man since the beginning of time. Many have died or gone broke chasing this elusive element. We are about to see it happen again. The first ones to catch it usually do very well, but as the fever spreads to the general population the affliction mutates to fear of not getting their share and ends with disaster.

Those who understand the cycle of fear, yes, that is what it is, do manage to control their emotions and do very well. At first the logical, thinking people realize that everything is in place for a long term bull market so they mine (buy) early. As they continue to become richer and richer others see their success and start staking claims. Even these later comers do well as the hoard descends upon the gold fields and the early birds are happy to accommodate them by selling them part or all of their claims (stocks and bullion).

The early birds do not become emotional about their good fortune and do not become so attached to their mines that they refuse to sell. They have the good sense to realize that if they hold much longer there will be too many chasing this good thing so they sell. Every rich man in history will tell you that the secret of success is knowing when to sell.

Those who bought the original tulip bulbs from Holland and land in the South Pacific and saw the prices begin to erode and sold were the ones who remained rich. From 1982 to 2000 dot.com stocks made everyone think he was a financial genius. Those who had no exit strategy were buried in the avalanche of cascading prices for the next 3 years. It seems that many have not yet learned their lesson and are buying more of the same junk with the hope that it will go back up to the old high prices so they can get out "even".

Those who came late to the gold rush went home with little or nothing and most lost money. If you want to participate in the coming gold bonanza you must get started now.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Every broker and financial planner will tell you that you cannot time the stock market. I saw John Bogle, the great seer of Vanguard, on CNBC saying it can’t be done. Of course, it is easy to understand why he and every other mutual fund manager would say that as they would have a problem managing huge inflows and outflows of money and he was buying and holding during the 18-year bull from 1982 to 2000.

Every successful hedge fund managers knows that Buy and Hold is death for capital investment. Hedge fund managers are different than regular mutual fund managers in that they only get paid when they make a profit for their investors. Wouldn’t it be refreshing if we could have that happen for the mutual funds you own. Last year 90% of all stock mutual funds lost money and the average fund manager made about $300,000.

To be invested in a hedge fund you must be a “qualified investor”. That means you need to show an income of $200,000 a year for the last 2 years and have a net worth of $1,000,000. It is the old story of the rich get richer. The reason is simple. They don’t put money with money mangers who can’t manage money. Hedge fund managers must make profits or starve. The Securities and Exchange Commission should allow this type of investment for small investors, but they don’t. Why don’t you write them a letter and ask ‘why’?

To protect your cash in your IRA, 401K, SEP, trust or just plain stock account you can learn to use market timing. There is one very simple timing method that anyone can master and you don’t have to be a mathematical genius or even the least bit market savvy to do it.

From 1950 to the year 2000 the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10,534 points. That is a pretty long time period so it is a very good sample. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac (2002 edition) a $10,000 investment using only the S&P500 Index your account would have increased by $11,408 if you had been invested just during May through October. Pretty shabby. However, if you were invested only from November through April that same $10,000 would have gained $314,056. Cowabunga! Who says you can’t time the market?

If you were invested in a broad market index fund of any kind and switched to a money market during the Spring and Summer periods and been fully invested during the Fall and Winter you could be one of those qualified investors. You could have made an extra 700%. That’s real money. And there are better timing models.

Anyone can do this, but brokers tell you you have to be fully invested all the time. Nonsense. They are worried you might take your money out. Cash is a position. They will tell you it is too simplistic, but that is the beauty of it. Simple is always better.

This is the easiest of all timing models I know and it works. Take some time to study it. It can only increase your net worth. And you will sleep better.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

There is a current movie entitled “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind”. It is about a man who has had a painful love affair and will do anything to rid his mind of those pain thoughts of a former love. He sees an advertisement that offers just such a service. It seems his former lover has the exact thoughts and she goes through the same treatment. Guess what? They meet again, do not recognize each other, and fall in love again.

Does any of this sound familiar?

May I gently remind you of what happened to your stock portfolio in 2000 to 2003? Please. Don’t shoot the messenger. You fell in love with the stocks or mutual funds in your 401K and became wildly emotional about all the money your were making and how you thought about buying one of those islands in the Bahamas for early retirement. Then came the road crunching detour and you are left with a broken down portfolio by the side of the road.

Along came a shiny red tow truck and a mechanic who said he could fix everything. Slowly you began to forget the previous gut-wrenching journey and your car is now running (not as well as it used to) and seems to be getting better as this mechanic from Maul Street is working on it. Hey, I think I’m in love again.

If you cannot remember what happened in the past you will repeat those same errors in the future. Every great statesman has been a student of history. Every great investor has studied the history of the stock market to try to determine what the future will bring. Cycles continue to repeat and repeat because people forget the past. Those who are smart enough do not fall into the repetitive trap and instead take advantage of it.

One of the most predictable is the long cycle of the stock market. It usually runs about 16 to 18 years. There is the up cycle which is invariably followed by a down cycle of equal length. Within each long cycle are several short cycles of 6 month to 2 years with a resumption of the downward move until the cycle is completed.

Do you realize we just completed an 18 year up cycle in 2000? Now the market is completing a one year advance within that cycle and may be getting ready to head down again. How is your spotless mind doing? Have you forgotten your lesson from 2000? Are you willing to make that same mistake again?

If you choose to forget you are doomed to repeat your losses. This time use your whole mind to learn from a past mistake so you will not see your money disappear – again.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

One of the basic laws of physics states that a body in motion will continue in motion in the direction it is going until interrupted by another force.

That basic physics law also applies to stocks and mutual funds. To see this trend it will be very apparent in a weekly or monthly chart rather than a daily chart. The daily chart shows too much noise (random movement).

In the Friday edition of Investor’s Business Daily you will find 37 weekly charts on the back page of Section 2. One of the common occurrences among these issues is the steady upward progression of price, many with an angle of 30 degrees or more. The up movement of price may have been going on for many months. This is the kind of stock you want to own and even add to your position as it continues upward.

Most brokers talk about dollar cost averaging and mean adding to a stock as it goes down. That is stupid. There is only one right way to dollar cost average and that is when it is going up - NEVER down. Averaging down will put you in the poor house.

Today’s stock market (end of 1999) we see the upward momentum of almost all the major stock averages - the DOW Jones Industrials, the S&P500, the Russell 2000 and many more. Some of these indexes are headed for the stratosphere. No, I have no idea how high or how far is up, but remain 100% invested to take advantage of this runaway bull. The market will tell me when to sell.

For anyone holding individual stocks about the only thing you can do is set a trailing stop-loss order so that when the issue turns you will be out with a nice profit. Don’t try to predict the top because you will sell too soon. Let the stock itself tell you when to get out. The amount of the stop will be up to you, but I like about 10% of Friday’s closing price. Never move the stop down.

There are people who buy mutual funds and put them away and never look to see how they are doing. This is a mistake. You are hurting your financial future if you do not regularly review your funds. Monthly is best, never less that quarterly. Momentum applies here too and even more so because many funds have a bias to a particular sector of the market. There are big caps, small caps, regional, international, value, etc., etc., etc. A policy to enhance your income is to see which sectors or groups are doing best and be invested in a fund that is heavily in that sector.

Mutual funds of a certain sector will run up for months at a time, even years, but when that sector becomes weak you should sell immediately and buy a stronger one. If you are with a discount broker there will be no commission to switch and, of course, you only buy no-load funds. Never blindly buy and hold any fund.

As you become aware of the momentum of various sectors and switch to stay with the strongest you can easily double your current return.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

The recent criminal fiasco in the mutual fund industry is being used by Wall Street to persuade investors that market timing is a bad thing. The late trading by Janus, Bank America and several other well known mutual funds is falsely being called market timing.

Wall Street, better known as Maul Street to most investors, does not want to you to find out about market timing. The reason is very simple. If you learn to sell you might take your funds and do something intelligent with them.

First let’s understand what market timing is. Very simply it is a proven method that gives signals to buy and another signal to sell. Many of these methods are associated with stocks and mutual funds yet there are those that signal overall market conditions. We are on the verge of another sell signal for the general market and several market timers have already given those signals to sell. There are many excellent systems and they all beat the Wall Street lie of Buy and Hold. The key to all market profits is selling not buying.

The criminal acts of the mutual funds had nothing to do with this method. The hedge fund managers knew the stock holdings of the mutual funds in question and AFTER the market closed companies would make announcements of their earnings, new products approved by the FDA, legal actions, etc. that would definitely impact upon the stock price the NEXT day. If it was good news the fund would allow big money players to place their orders after all official trading stopped. That’s 4:00PM New York time.

The fund price might be $20 per share, but depending upon the amount of stock in their portfolio it might make the settlement price the next day as much as 5% higher. That doesn’t seem like much, but if you had shown a purchase of 10 million dollars on the close that day and sold it out the next day you would have a profit of $500,000. That is money removed from the fund that belongs to the shareholders. This is NOT timing. This is fraud and the parties should not only repay all those stolen monies to the fund, but should also see jail time and be banned from the industry for life.

If you want to find out more about market timing type in ‘market timing’ on your computer and do a search. There are scores of them, but you must do your due diligence to be sure that what they are telling you is true. Always ask for references. Make them prove what they say. Don’t bother to ask your broker as he will tell you the Wall Street lie that it doesn’t work.

Because of the precarious nature of this market I encourage you to look into this NOW.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

When you stand on the ocean shore and watch the waves breaking you might become aware that the tide is coming in or going out. It is a slow process to watch the water retreat and when it finally gets to its lowest point it is almost impossible to tell if it has stopped or will retreat further. Plenty of wave action, but going nowhere.

This reminds me of our current stock market. It still looks like the tide is going out because for the last 2 months all the major stock indexes have been inching down. Even the talking heads on CNBC are saying you must be cautious. They would be fired if they told you to sell. How can you tell what is gong on? Almost every analyst and broker looks at the major market indexes – the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Index. On the surface they look very negative.

The DOW is composed of 30 large companies. The S&P500 has 500 companies of many sizes, but the number (index) generated is weighted by the size of the company. The bigger it is the more it affects the index. And the Nasdaq is smaller companies and have more of the high tech corporations that have been hit so hard and are still having mucho trouble. The professional traders and mutual fund managers relate more to the S&P500. Almost all domestic stock mutual funds have been lower in price for the first quarter.

Even though the S&P has been slipping it is interesting to note that 300 of the 500 stocks that make up the index are HIGHER. Yes, 60% of them have continued to advance, but it doesn’t show - yet. When a market is changing directions it is similar to watching the tide stop going out and slowly change. That is what is going on now. The wave action is there, but you can’t see that the body of water is now beginning to move the other way.

There are some strong underlying currents such and the Small and Midcap Value stocks, Real Estate stocks, the Leisure group and Financials. This applies to picking individual issues as well as buying mutual funds that specialize in these areas. If you want to be successful – make money – in this market you must be with the strongest group so you must switch from weak stocks and mutual funds to those that are currently strong. Fund managers tell you to look at the 3 and 5-year track record and "stay for the long haul". All that does is make money for him, not you. You must find the no-load mutual funds that are going up the fastest during the past 3 and 6-month time period and buy them now.

The only way to Buy and Hold is to buy and hold only while they are going up and to sell them immediately when they start to decline. Don’t let the weak stocks or funds carry your cash out with the money undertow.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005