One of the basic laws of physics is that a body in motion will remain in motion unless disturbed by another force. What has this to do with the stock market?

For the last 2 years the long-term trend of the market has been down with a few momentary deviations. When a baseball player hits a ball it comes off his bat at full speed and as it makes its arc through the air it slows down and is buffeted by the wind. Sometimes he hits a weak shot and once in a while he gets a home run. You can almost tell when it leaves the bat whether it will be a good one.

On March 1 and March 4 the market came to the plate and it went up so fast and with so much energy it looks like we have a home run in the making. It has been my experience not to argue with an accomplished athlete. The athletes we are dealing with here are the professional traders such as hedge fund and mutual fund managers. They have come forward and put their money where their mouth is. It looks like the ball is going to go a long way.

You as the small investor will want get on board while the ball is in the upward trajectory. Picking individual stocks is extremely difficult as I discussed in last week’s column, but it can be done if you want to do the work. There is an easier way.

No-load mutual funds are the answer. Good ones (that means those that have been going up steadily for the past 6 months) are relatively easy to find, Do NOT buy any fund with a commission charge. If you do you will be starting in a hole and must crawl out before you have a chance to make money. Brokers will tell you that the load funds are better. They are lying.

There are several places to look. At the library you should see the Investor’s Business Daily newspaper. In the Mutual Fund section you will find the top 25 funds for the past 6 months. This is not published every day so you will have to look in several issues to find it. You can make a list of the first 15 and in the same newspaper is the listing of all mutual funds you will see their toll free number. Call each one to be sure it has no commission charge or redemption fee. You can select from this group for your investments.

If you don’t have a computer at home use the one at the library and go to www.smartmoney.com. Under mutual funds they will show you a list of the best performing funds for the past year. They also show if they have a commission charge. From this list you will be able to buy some very good no-load funds.

Which ones you buy are not that important as long as they are going up. Never keep any fund that is not on one these lists. When they stop going up it is time to sell them.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

We are already in it, but you can’t see it. It doesn’t look like the one we had in ‘99. Like the magician who has you watching what he wants you to and with the other hand he is doing something else that is what is happening in the stock market today. The magician is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the Nasdaq or the S&P500 Index. These have John Q. Public mesmerized.

The Nasdaq has given back 63% of the rally high since September 17 low while the DJI has only sold off about 18%.

As you see these averages going almost sideways or down and your own stock and mutual fund portfolio is doing the same so you come to the conclusion that the market isn’t going anywhere right now. But there are hundreds of stocks making new high prices for the year just about every day. In fact, the majority of stocks that compose the S&P500 are higher. Why aren’t yours doing the same?

Analysts separate stocks into different groups that they call sectors. There are mutual funds that buy stocks associated with these sectors and then the funds are separated into categories called peer groups. If you are not in the strongest peer group you are not making money, but you know that. Or did you?

Picking an individual stock that will double in a year is very difficult so I don’t recommend you try. Instead look to see which are the strong peer groups to try to find a no-load mutual fund that is doing better than others. There are lots of them when you know where to look. This going to take a lot of work so I get someone to do it for me. He is an expert. A stock professional. A manager of a no-load mutual fund. No-load because I don’t want to pay commission.

Some mutual funds are limited by their charter as to what they may buy so you can’t go with them. Others do not have these restrictions. You limit your selection to these. There are 3 that are very outstanding now – the Small Cap Value, Mid Cap Value and Real Estate peer groups. They are all in double digit profit territory while most mutual funds as a group seem to be going sideways. These can be most easily found by searching on the Internet or calling a discount broker to see if he will get you a list. Most of them do not want to do the work for you especially since there is no commission involved. If you care about your money you will do you own searching.

Making money in the market is all about being in the right place at the right time, but no one is going to do it for you.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

Having lived aboard a sailboat for 2 years I was stricken when I saw the movie “PERFECT STORM”. I know these are things you want to avoid at all costs. Even little storms can play havoc with your life style on a boat.

From a world view it looks like we are headed into a perfect storm of world macroeconomics. That means every one in the world is going to be impacted economically by the developing global economics. The more economically developed the country the worse they will be affected. Those third-world countries just working their way to becoming second-world countries can easily be set back 30 to 50 years.

What am I talking about?

People need food and shelter and after they have the basic necessities they will buy nonessentials such as entertainment and toys (boats, cars, jewelry, bigger houses, second homes, etc.). These are all purchased because the person has extra units of credit called money with which to buy the extras. In order the get that extra money he has to have a steady job. World wide there is excess productive capacity. Approximately 25% of productive machinery is idle; we are working at about 75% of capacity where the normal rate of production is between 87% and 92%. That means that many who were at those machines are now sitting at home wondering not about a new toy to buy, but how to make the next mortgage payment.

Everything looks smooth. The waters are calm and the breeze is at our back. When that perfect storm was forming in the Atlantic Ocean there did not seem to be any danger, but the meteorologists watching their satellites and computers could see that all was not well and a terrible storm was forming. They realized when it hit that ships would be at high risk.

There are meteorologists of the stock market. They are a combination of technical and fundamental analysts and it is their job to predict the stock market weather. Like weathermen the job of prediction is not easy nor is it an exact science, Many get it wrong, Today the news of the stock market and the economy is dominated by the fundamentalists who see excellent weather and tranquil seas. Many technicians see it otherwise. They are predicting that there are formations that could produce a perfect storm that will wipe out many portfolios.

Historically the timing of fundamentalist (those who follow the reports of company profits and government statistics) usually lags while the prediction of technical analysts (those who follow chart patterns and historical data) has been much more accurate.

The key to the stock market is timing. The investor wants to own stocks and mutual funds while the market is advancing and to be in cash while the market is declining.

Today the fundamentalist weathermen say buy while many technician weathermen are recommending cash. In the next few months we will see if the weather is calm or stormy.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

The big bad bear is stirring again. So far he has stretched, yawned and peaked out of his cave. After his almost year-long nap he is hungry. A nice big steak would hit the spot.

That steak comes from cattle and not too far from his den there is a fat complacent bull munching in the pasture. He has his tail towards the bear and Mr. Bear remembers that 3 years ago he walked up to another bull and bit him in the backside. It looks like he can do it again.

We know who bull and bear really are. It seems that almost everyone is bullish and thinks we are in another bull market like the one in 1999 where all investors thought they were geniuses. History has taught (for those who wish to listen and learn) that major bull markets are followed by bear markets of equal length. The major bull came to an end after 18 years in 2000. Can we expect an 18-year bear market? If history repeats its cycle the answer is yes.

The recent return of the upward movement of stock prices from last year is very typical of rallies in bear markets. Many have a 50% retracement of the first down leg (as happened after the big break in 1929) that tops out with the resumption of the downward path.

Today our bull is feeding on the lowest interest rates in 40 years, a tax cut that puts extra money in the hands of consumers (where it belongs) and a strong housing market plus the belief that the market always does well in an election year. Let’s hope all these things will come to pass.

The worst problem for investors is their complacency. They start making money and forget to protect their profits. These slip away when the market starts down and their broker says, “Don’t worry. The market always comes back”. If the investor did not learn to protect his assets from the 2000 debacle he is doomed to lose again. What should he do?

He should protect his investment account with stop-loss orders on all stocks and mental stops for all mutual funds. Brokers hate this and will try to talk their clients out of doing it. Why? Because he makes a commission as long as you are invested and nothing if you have cash in your money market.

It is better to make 1% in a money market than lose 20% or more of the principle as the market heads south. You don’t have to be a market “expert” to place a stop. Decide how much risk you are will to take 5%, 10%, 15%? And place your stop accordingly.

When this bear comes out of his cave don’t let him bite you – you know where.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

I am hearing predictions by brokers, financial planners, talk show hosts and the talking heads on TV that the market is going back to its old highs - DOW 11,700 and NASDAQ 5000 here we come.

It seems to me that in 2000 I heard these same people saying there was no top to the market and were looking into their crystal balls for DOW 30,000 or some other fantastic number. Suddenly the market turned over with the DOW dropping 3,000 points and the NASDAQ losing 80% of its value. Can it happen again? I don’t predict and all I can say is the market can do anything.

BUT what if it does turn down? Are you going to sit as you did before and watch your money disappear? Right now everything looks rosy and the momentum is carrying the indexes higher almost every day. Buy and hold is the right strategy.

Hind sight is always 20/20 and you will want to own stocks and mutual funds now, but not get caught in the next down draft. There will be one! There always has and you can see it clearly if you are a student of market history. Since 1900 there have been 16 to 18-year cycles of bull and bear markets and within those there have been other shorter cycles of ups and downs.

Many brokers and investors try to predict when those turns will occur and they are mostly wrong. It is definitely not a good idea to try to outguess the market. You must learn to read the rather obvious signs of the major turns. I say obvious, but it is clear they are not obvious to most brokers or financial planners. Having been a professional trader, exchange member and floor trader for many years I will tell you the obvious ‘secret’.

Using a 200-day moving average of any one of the major indexes (I prefer the S&P500) you can plot these every day and when the index penetrates the 200-day line in an upward direction it is a signal to buy. That is where we are now. Inversely when it penetrates that line going down it is time to sell and put your money in cash or bonds. If you don’t want to do the math computations there is an excellent chart in the Investor’s Business Daily newspaper called their Mutual Fund Index that will do all the work for you.

It is nothing more complicated than that and you can go back into history as far as you wish and you will see it proven time after time. You are holding stocks or funds while the market is going up and you are in cash while it is going down. Don’t be fooled by “research” or by any other complicated method. This works.

There is no need to predict the market. It will tell you in simple language what it is doing and whether you should be a buyer or seller.

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

Copyright 2005

An investor can find and research the best stock on the market, one with huge potential but if the general market indices are negative, it will most likely be the wrong time to buy. A stock with tremendous accelerating earnings, rising sales, an up-trending chart pattern and a strong industry group may sound excellent to buy but will mean absolutely nothing if the market is positioned to move in the opposite direction of your expectations. As soon as a stock is purchased, the time comes for an investor to make a decision to hold or to sell. If the position shows a profit, hold as your judgment is correct. If the position shows a loss, cut it quickly and don’t rationalize the situation before it doubles in size. Timing will play an important role in determining if you are right or wrong.

Losers must be cut quickly, long before they materialize into enormous financial disasters. They company and stock may not be a loser but rather your timing may be premature to a strong movement, forcing you to sell on a pullback. After a stock is cut from your portfolio, the transaction must be forgotten about and eliminated from your subconscious mind and/or emotional bank. The trade must be studied to capture the true essence of your mistake but the specific security involved must be blocked from any sentimental attachments, allowing you to consider reinstating the position at a higher level. This repurchase may take place immediately or well into the future but the important fact is that you were wrong with the timing on the initial position. The timing, also known as the ‘M’ in CANSLIM by William O’Neil, may have been wrong even though all fundamental and technical criteria related to the individual stock seemed to be perfect.

A quote from the great Gerald Loeb: “Cutting losses is the one and only rule of the markets that can be taught with the assurance that it is always the correct thing to do.”

The wisdom shared by Loeb is easier said than done. Humans like to take profits and hate taking losses or admitting that they were wrong. Pride and ego distorts the clear thinking process that every investor must posses when following clear cut rules that provides insurance to their cash stake. Even tougher, humans refuse to repurchase anything at a higher price that they sold it previously. As Loeb states, only logic, reason, information and experience can be listened to if failure is to be avoided.

It is advisable to make a “test buy” in a shaky or unstable market which allows the investor to assess the general conditions with minimal risk but still maintain an emotional attachment. If the position goes bad, a small loss will be realize but the damages will be limited and the investor’s pride and ego can be repaired rather quickly. In a sense, the investor was half right by only initiating a partial position also known as a “test buy”. If the market was trending up, a “test buy” would not have to be established as the market direction would have been clear from the beginning.

When it comes to timing, an uneducated investor may realize better gains during a solid bull market based on pure luck than a seasoned investor will return in a sideways or unstable market. Following the trend will be the most successful route to consistent profits over the long haul. By watching the general market indicators, such as price, volume and daily new highs, an investor should know exactly what type of environment they are trading. The most important factor weighing on the stock market is the presence of public psychology, even more so than any fundamentals that the most intelligent academic analyst can compute. Technical analysis along with confirmation of the market trend allows us to see the combined thought process of the general public and tells us if the timing is right to buy or short a specific stock, regardless of the fundamentals.

In conclusion, we must understand that certain situations are only applicable during specific times. Buying leading stocks during a down trend is a sure way to multiple losses that are cut quickly. Shorting stocks during a raging bull is another sure way to financial disaster and margin calls. Don’t get discouraged if you take a few small losses consecutively as this is your rules telling you to stay out of the market at this time. The timing may be off even though the stock and research is favorable. Why would you swim upstream to reach your destination if you could jump in a boat and row downstream with the current another day? Before you ever start to immerse yourself into researching a stock to purchase, make sure you know the exact environment of the market and determine if it coincides with your objective. If it doesn’t, get ready to get slaughtered, especially if you don’t follow strict rules to cut all losses quickly.

Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com

Chris is the founder and president of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We don’t stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.

When will the stock market stop going down and start up again? If we knew that we’d all be jillionaires. So what do you do now while stocks are going down and stealing away your money every day?

What does history tell us? Here is one very interesting fact. From 1920 to 2000 there were 3 bull markets that lasted about 16 years each. It seems the most recent one ended at the end of 1999. What is most scary about this is that after these long bull markets each one was followed by another period when the stock market went down or sideways for another 16 years. Look on the bright side. We only have 14 more years to wait for the next bull market.

Wait a minute –

Wall Street has been telling us this is only a correction and now is the time to buy. What do you think they are going to tell you? They have stocks to sell and must make commissions or they will be out of business. Someone has to buy that stuff and guess who got picked? Right. You.

There are only a couple of safe places. A government-backed money market fund or some government short to intermediate bonds that will pay you about 5%. Unfortunately, too many people still think the stock market is going to make new high prices, but it ain’t gonna happen. The smartest thing you can do is protect your money from further depreciation. If you don’t take action now you will see your money disappear at about 10% to 20% (maybe more) over the next couple of years. I know your broker said the market always comes back. Well, I hope it does - in your lifetime. But you have to be smart enough to protect what you have right now.

The few wise men of Wall Street who speak the truth – Sir John Templeton, Warren Buffet and a few others – have said you will be lucky to make 5% over the next few years. To me that means you can be safely in bonds and sleep at night.

The great secret of success in the stock market is not buying; it is selling. Any fool can buy, but unless you know when to sell you are in trouble. Go thru the stocks and mutual funds you own right now and ask yourself this question: Would I buy this puppy now? If the answer is ‘NO’ then the best thing to do is sell it and put your money in something that will not depreciate over the next 14 years.

Rule one: Don’t lose money. What are you doing to protect yours?

Al Thomas’ book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

1-888-345-7870; al@mutualfundstrategy.com

Most stock traders know that momentum trading can be a very profitable activity. You can make big amounts of cash in a short period of time. The problem is, that if you don’t know what stocks to look for and how to approach them and leave everyting to chance, you could end up wasting money instead of making your profits grow.

That’s why the most important aspect of momentum trading is the knowledge FILTER you employ to make your buy and sell decisions. There are many "fantastic" stock systems and trading strategies outhere, but you need to test them in order to discover which ones help you the most. That’s part of your homework as a stocktrader. Test, test and test again.

Complicated online trading strategies that rely on a "boat load" of technical analysis indicators can make you slow, and being slow when trading hot momentum stocks can be as dangerous as not knowing what to do in the first place.

The worst thing that can happen to a beginner momentum trader is to get information overload. It’s better to go step by step, and test a simple stock trading strategy that can show you how to focus on concrete ways to make money and pick better hot stock trading opportunities once at a time.

Fortunatly there are great sites on the web today that can show you how to trade in a sharp and effective way. One of those sites is Sharp Trades http://www.sharptrades.com

In the end, momentum trading is all about buying and selling stocks according to your knowledge FILTER. Once you master and follow your proven filter parameters like a clock, you can expect to start making serious amounts of cash on a consistent basis.

Find out how to do it with ease and simplicity at Sharp Trades.

Dan Sheldon is a UK based momentum day trader focusing on US markets since 1986. He helps people become confident and practical momentum traders, showing them how to choose stocks with ease and simplicity every day at http://www.SharpTrades.com

As one of my regular readers you know I have been a stock market bear for the past 2 years and have encouraged everyone to put their money into a money market account or a short-term no-load bond fund and for the more adventurous what is called a bear mutual fund that goes up when the market goes down. Just being in cash as outlined in my book would have saved 40% or more of your money.

It looks like the bull has returned - at least for a while. The low that was hit on October 8 was a serious one. As the market has gone up there have been more and more who believe we are in a recovery mode so they are committing funds again. This is true not only for the average investor who has been seriously hurt with the invalid Buy and Hold philosophy, but also the pension and retirement plans of both large and small corporations. Many pension plans (hopefully not yours) have had losses of 30% to 50%.

I hate to tell you this, but those fund managers, as expert as they pretend to be, have no more idea how to protect that fund than you do. Am I being pessimistic? Maybe, but then why did 90% of all stock mutual funds lose money so far this year? The only stocks and mutual funds showing a profit have been bonds, gold and bear funds. You can be sure your financial manager was not smart enough to own any of these.

Well, anyway, back to this new bull market. Many pension plans and funds have been making a small recovery and the investor is again opening his mail from his 401K. It has been too painful to see those losses.

Will this bull last? The current underlying fundamentals say ‘NO’, but the outlook by market analysts is that next year we will see the return of good corporate profits and better exports to foreign countries. So far it has been the American consumer who has held the market up with purchases of cars and houses. If this can continue we will see some corporate expansion and employment rise again.

The market has been rising on anticipation of that scenario. Unless we can see corporations making decent profits so they can expand their business this shadow bull will disappear in a flash of light. Whoever you work for must make a good profit or you won’t have a job. It isn’t his fault or yours. He can’t afford to keep you unless there are profits.

Let’s hope this shadow bull has more substance to it.

(c) 2005

Al Thomas’ best selling book, "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter to receive his market letter for 3 months at www.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he’s the man that Wall Street does not want you to know.

The Law of Chaos is the theory of random unpredictable action applied to the cosmos, mathematics, mechanics, almost everything. Those who believe it will definitely think the stock market is in chaotic state at this time. Don’t you believe it.

When I was a floor trader people would ask me how do you make sense of what is going on with all that yelling and arm-waving? To the uninitiated it does look turbulent, but to those who are in the middle it is understandable and orderly. It took me a while before it became "normal".

Your broker at this time may be telling you that such-an-such stock is a great "value" because it has come down so far. Don’t believe this Wall Street myth. It will only cost you money. Cash is your best position right now. Look at the pattern as shown on a stock chart.

When the trend is down never try to pick the bottom. Here are two glaring examples. Cisco went to $82. When it came down was Cisco a great buy at $65? Did your broker call you? Now it is $11 and headed for $?? Lucent looked like a buy at $60 and now it is 77 cents down from 77 dollars! Is this chaos or is there an orderly pattern to this mess? The lesson here is never buy any stock or mutual fund that is in a downtrend and if you own something that is, sell it immediately.

To those of us who have studied the price patterns of individual stocks and market indexes we see a road map (stock chart) of what has happened and have a good idea where it is going. It is not random. Many brokers will tell you this can’t be done and that charts tell you nothing. That is because they have not taken the time to learn their trade. Technical analysis is more important than fundamental analysis. Over any period of time a good technical analyst will beat the shirt, pants, underwear and socks off a fundamental analyst because fundamentals don’t give timing. Fundamentals are the background for a major move.

There is an orderly pattern in all this seeming chaotic price action of the stock market. To become a serious trader and money-maker you must study it in order to make it a useful tool for you investments, Otherwise, you are at the mercy of brokers, financial planners, bankers and other "experts" who know as little as you.

Copyright Albert W. Thomas All rights reserved Author of "If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!"

www.mutualfundmagic.com; email to al@mutualfundmagic.com